While the 2022 NFL regular season schedule released on May 11, we’re now able to calculate NFL Strength of Schedule for all 32 teams using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.

What NFL team has the easiest schedule for 2022:

Based on projected win totals, the New York Giants have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2022 NFL season.

The next easiest schedules, in order, are the Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, and Chicago Bears.

What NFL team has the hardest schedule for 2022:

Based on projected win totals, the Kansas City Chiefs have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2022 NFL season.

The next hardest schedules, in order, are the Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers.

2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Ranked by Team

Ranked easiest (#1) to hardest (#32) schedule for the 2022 season, plus projected win totals and current betting odds for every NFL team:

RankTeamProjected Win TotalCurrent Line
1New York Giants7.17.5 +130
2Philadelphia Eagles8.878.5 -150
3Indianapolis Colts9.89.5 -140
4Chicago Bears6.86.5 -140
5Detroit Lions6.256.5 +115
6Washington Commanders7.657.5 -125
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers11.511.5 -110
8Cleveland Browns10.010 -110
9New Orleans Saints8.28.5 +120
10Dallas Cowboys10.510.5 -110
11Baltimore Ravens9.659.5 -125
12Jacksonville Jaguars6.356.5 +105
13San Francisco 49ers9.89.5 -140
14Carolina Panthers5.65.5 -120
15Green Bay Packers10.8510.5 -145
16Minnesota Vikings8.78.5 -130
17Denver Broncos10.110.5 +130
18Buffalo Bills11.6511.5 -125
19Miami Dolphins8.78.5 -130
20Los Angeles Chargers10.210.5 +120
21Tennessee Titans9.49.5 +100
22Seattle Seahawks5.85.5 -140
23Atlanta Falcons4.454.5 -105
24Arizona Cardinals9.059.5 +135
25New England Patriots8.68.5 -120
26Cincinnati Bengals9.69.5 -120
27New York Jets5.855.5 -145
28Houston Texans4.454.5 -105
29Pittsburgh Steelers7.67.5 -120
30Las Vegas Raiders8.58.5 -110
31Los Angeles Rams10.410.5 +100
32Kansas City Chiefs10.5510.5 -115

2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization

While there aren’t perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2022 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.

Here is a visual breakdown of 2022 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each team, based on Vegas win totals.

2022 NFL Strength of Schedule by Team

How Accurate is Warren Sharp’s Model for determining Strength of Schedule?

Last season (2021), the Top 8 teams with the most difficult schedule were: Raiders, Texans, Chiefs, Lions, Steelers, Cardinals, Giants & Commanders.

  • Warren Sharp’s 2021 NFL Strength of Schedule methodology correctly forecasted all of them would have Top 8 toughest schedules except the Chiefs (#20).

Last season (2021), the Top 7 teams with the easiest schedule were: Bills, Buccaneers, Bengals, Broncos, Eagles, Dolphins & Cowboys.

  • Warren Sharp’s 2021 NFL Strength of Schedule methodology correctly forecasted that 6 of these Top 7 teams would rank inside the Top 10 easiest schedules (only the Bengals did not).

Are Strength of Schedule projections released this early even accurate? 

Short answer: YES

  • Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the hardest 2021 schedules, only 3 went over their projected win total: Cardinals, Steelers, Raiders
  • Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the easiest 2021 schedules, only 3 went under their projected win total: Bills, Broncos, Browns

Trying to exceed and overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (3 out of 10 in 2021) and likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectation was quite regular (only 3 out of 10 did not).

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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2021 Actuals

Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2021) versus projected 2022 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.

Team2022 SOS2021 Actual SOSImprovement
New York Giants1311
Philadelphia Eagles2512
Indianapolis Colts3116
Chicago Bears4244
Detroit Lions5283
Washington Commanders6322
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7220
Cleveland Browns8913
New Orleans Saints91013
Dallas Cowboys10719
Baltimore Ravens111511
Jacksonville Jaguars12235
San Francisco 49ers13216
Carolina Panthers141910
Green Bay Packers151416
Minnesota Vikings16228
Denver Broncos17427
Buffalo Bills18130
Miami Dolphins19627
Los Angeles Chargers201817
Tennessee Titans211620
Seattle Seahawks221225
Atlanta Falcons231325
Arizona Cardinals24308
New England Patriots25830
Cincinnati Bengals26332
New York Jets272024
Houston Texans282617
Pittsburgh Steelers292915
Las Vegas Raiders302520
Los Angeles Rams311729
Kansas City Chiefs322720

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings by Position:

More NFL Betting content from Sharp Football: 

More NFL Offseason coverage from Sharp Football:

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