You’re currently viewing last year’s strength of schedule analysis (2022). 

Be sure to check out the current 2023 NFL Strength of Schedule for this upcoming season.

With the 2022 NFL regular season schedule being released on May 11, we’re now able to calculate NFL Strength of Schedule for all 32 teams using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.

What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2022:

Based on projected win totals, the New York Giants have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2022 NFL season.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2022:

1. New York Giants
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Chicago Bears
5. Detroit Lions

What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2022:

Based on projected win totals, the Kansas City Chiefs have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2022 NFL season.

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2022:

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Las Vegas Raiders
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Houston Texans

2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Ranked by Team

Ranked easiest (#1) to hardest (#32) schedule for the 2022 season, plus projected win totals and current betting odds for every NFL team:

RankTeamProjected Win TotalCurrent Line
1New York Giants7.17.5 +130
2Philadelphia Eagles8.878.5 -150
3Indianapolis Colts9.89.5 -140
4Chicago Bears6.86.5 -140
5Detroit Lions6.256.5 +115
6Washington Commanders7.657.5 -125
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers11.511.5 -110
8Cleveland Browns10.010 -110
9New Orleans Saints8.28.5 +120
10Dallas Cowboys10.510.5 -110
11Baltimore Ravens9.659.5 -125
12Jacksonville Jaguars6.356.5 +105
13San Francisco 49ers9.89.5 -140
14Carolina Panthers5.65.5 -120
15Green Bay Packers10.8510.5 -145
16Minnesota Vikings8.78.5 -130
17Denver Broncos10.110.5 +130
18Buffalo Bills11.6511.5 -125
19Miami Dolphins8.78.5 -130
20Los Angeles Chargers10.210.5 +120
21Tennessee Titans9.49.5 +100
22Seattle Seahawks5.85.5 -140
23Atlanta Falcons4.454.5 -105
24Arizona Cardinals9.059.5 +135
25New England Patriots8.68.5 -120
26Cincinnati Bengals9.69.5 -120
27New York Jets5.855.5 -145
28Houston Texans4.454.5 -105
29Pittsburgh Steelers7.67.5 -120
30Las Vegas Raiders8.58.5 -110
31Los Angeles Rams10.410.5 +100
32Kansas City Chiefs10.5510.5 -115

2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization

While there aren’t perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2022 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.

Here is a visual breakdown of 2022 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each team, based on Vegas win totals.

2022 NFL Strength of Schedule by Team

How Accurate is Warren Sharp’s Model for determining Strength of Schedule?

Last season (2021), the Top 8 teams with the most difficult schedule were: Raiders, Texans, Chiefs, Lions, Steelers, Cardinals, Giants & Commanders.

  • Warren Sharp’s 2021 NFL Strength of Schedule methodology correctly forecasted all of them would have Top 8 toughest schedules except the Chiefs (#20).

Last season (2021), the Top 7 teams with the easiest schedule were: Bills, Buccaneers, Bengals, Broncos, Eagles, Dolphins & Cowboys.

  • Warren Sharp’s 2021 NFL Strength of Schedule methodology correctly forecasted that 6 of these Top 7 teams would rank inside the Top 10 easiest schedules (only the Bengals did not).

Are Strength of Schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

  • Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the hardest 2021 schedules, only 3 went over their projected win total: Cardinals, Steelers, Raiders
  • Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the easiest 2021 schedules, only 3 went under their projected win total: Bills, Broncos, Browns

Trying to exceed and overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (3 out of 10 in 2021) and likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectation was quite regular (only 3 out of 10 did not).

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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2021 Actuals

Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2021) versus projected 2022 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.

Team2022 SOS2021 Actual SOSImprovement
New York Giants1311
Philadelphia Eagles2512
Indianapolis Colts3116
Chicago Bears4244
Detroit Lions5283
Washington Commanders6322
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7220
Cleveland Browns8913
New Orleans Saints91013
Dallas Cowboys10719
Baltimore Ravens111511
Jacksonville Jaguars12235
San Francisco 49ers13216
Carolina Panthers141910
Green Bay Packers151416
Minnesota Vikings16228
Denver Broncos17427
Buffalo Bills18130
Miami Dolphins19627
Los Angeles Chargers201817
Tennessee Titans211620
Seattle Seahawks221225
Atlanta Falcons231325
Arizona Cardinals24308
New England Patriots25830
Cincinnati Bengals26332
New York Jets272024
Houston Texans282617
Pittsburgh Steelers292915
Las Vegas Raiders302520
Los Angeles Rams311729
Kansas City Chiefs322720

NFL Rest Edge For All 32 Teams, 2022

Rest edge is how many more (or less) days you have off from playing a game since your last game as compared to your opponent.

Which NFL teams have with the best edge in net rest advantage for 2022?

1. Bills
2. Lions
3. Broncos
4. Cowboys
5. Buccaneers

Which NFL teams have the biggest disadvantage in net rest advantage for 2022?

1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Texans
4. Jets
5. Saints

Breaking down NFL Rest Edge for the 2022 season:

The Bills are +12 and the Packers are -12. That’s a 24-day swing in rest edge. To put that in perspective: in a sport that spans FOUR months from start to finish, one team has nearly ONE month more rest than another team. That hardly seems justifiable.

Remarkably, this is an improvement from schedules the NFL has issued in the past. Last year, the Patriots were -14 in net rest, which represented a 27-day swing from the team with the most net rest.

Let’s talk about a few teams of interest here:

In a very strange fashion, the NFL made THREE different teams each play FOUR GAMES vs opponents off of a “mini-bye”. This happens when you play a team coming off a Thursday night game, so that team has three extra days of prep and rest.

Last year, no team played four opponents off of mini-byes. This year, it’s happening to three teams: the Commanders, Jets and Jaguars.

Commanders Rest Edge: The Commanders remarkably play four games with three-day rest disadvantages. This happens when you play a team coming off a Thursday night game, or what we like to call a “mini-bye”.

In Week 10, the Commanders play the Eagles, who are off a mini-bye after playing Thursday of Week 9.

The same happens when Washington plays the Giants in Week 13 (NYG plays on Thanksgiving the prior week), the 49ers in Week 16 (SF plays on Thursday of Week 15) and the Cowboys in Week 18 (DAL plays on Thursday of Week 17).

So not only is Washington playing four teams off mini-byes, they are playing all four very late in the season.

NY Jets Rest Edge: The NY Jets are another team that plays four teams off of mini-byes. Unlike the Commanders, they aren’t all bunched to the end of the season. But oddly, they play teams off mini-byes in back-to-back games, and do that twice.

First, in Week 4 vs the Steelers and Week 5 vs the Dolphins. Then in Week 14 vs the Vikings and in Week 15 vs the Bills. The worst part about that second set of games is both are road games for the Jets.

Buffalo Bills Rest Edge: The Bills, after a net rest disadvantage in 2021 of -1, are fortunate to have a net rest advantage of 12 days in 2022. They have their standard bye (and face the Packers at home off the bye).

They also have a uniquely great situation in that they play three games on Thursday which translate into two separate mini-byes.

They have a mini-bye leading into a home game vs the Titans in Week 2. They then play on Thanksgiving Week 12 vs the Lions (both teams have just 3 days rest entering this game) but then play the Patriots the following Thursday in Week 13, who also played on Thanksgiving.

So neither team is at rest disadvantage for that Week 13 game. However, the Bills Week 14 game vs the Jets is preceded by that mini-bye.

So there are two +3 rest edges. Buffalo also plays the Chiefs in Week 6 on standard rest, but the Chiefs are off a MNF game in Week 5, thus the Bills have a one-day rest edge. Buffalo does play two Monday night games and have a one-day rest disadvantage in their next game.

Dallas Cowboys Rest Edge: Dallas is another hot-button team in that they often seem to have the schedule fall their way and this year they have a substantial net rest edge of +8 days.

Their lone major disadvantage is Week 7, when they play the Lions who are coming off of their bye. But Dallas has a full bye week edge of their own vs the Packers in Week 10, and they also have +4 and +3 rest edges.

Dallas plays the Colts in Week 13 on Sunday Night Football the week after hosting the Giants for Thanksgiving. The Colts, however, are coming off a Monday night game in Week 12. So the Colts are on short rest while the Cowboys are off a mini-bye.

Additionally, the Cowboys have a rest edge of 3 days entering Week 18 vs Washington, having played the Titans on Thursday of Week 17.

Of note, however, this is the first time the Cowboys have played a road Thursday game on a short week since the NFL expanded Thursday night football in 2006. They had been one of two teams to never be forced to play on the road on Thursday on a short week prior to 2022.

Win Totals for all 32 NFL teams & Why You Should Bet It:

Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.

One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team, which you can access for free below:

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings by Position:

More NFL Betting content from Sharp Football: 

More NFL Offseason coverage from Sharp Football:

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