While the 2022 NFL regular season schedule released on May 11, we’re now able to calculate NFL Strength of Schedule for all 32 teams using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.
What NFL team has the easiest schedule for 2022:
Based on projected win totals, the New York Giants have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
The next easiest schedules, in order, are the Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, and Chicago Bears.
What NFL team has the hardest schedule for 2022:
Based on projected win totals, the Kansas City Chiefs have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
The next hardest schedules, in order, are the Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers.
2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Ranked by Team
Ranked easiest (#1) to hardest (#32) schedule for the 2022 season, plus projected win totals and current betting odds for every NFL team:
| Rank | Team | Projected Win Total | Current Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 7.1 | 7.5 +130 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 8.87 | 8.5 -150 |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts | 9.8 | 9.5 -140 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 6.8 | 6.5 -140 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 6.25 | 6.5 +115 |
| 6 | Washington Commanders | 7.65 | 7.5 -125 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 | 11.5 -110 |
| 8 | Cleveland Browns | 10.0 | 10 -110 |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | 8.2 | 8.5 +120 |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 | 10.5 -110 |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | 9.65 | 9.5 -125 |
| 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.35 | 6.5 +105 |
| 13 | San Francisco 49ers | 9.8 | 9.5 -140 |
| 14 | Carolina Panthers | 5.6 | 5.5 -120 |
| 15 | Green Bay Packers | 10.85 | 10.5 -145 |
| 16 | Minnesota Vikings | 8.7 | 8.5 -130 |
| 17 | Denver Broncos | 10.1 | 10.5 +130 |
| 18 | Buffalo Bills | 11.65 | 11.5 -125 |
| 19 | Miami Dolphins | 8.7 | 8.5 -130 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10.2 | 10.5 +120 |
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | 9.4 | 9.5 +100 |
| 22 | Seattle Seahawks | 5.8 | 5.5 -140 |
| 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 4.45 | 4.5 -105 |
| 24 | Arizona Cardinals | 9.05 | 9.5 +135 |
| 25 | New England Patriots | 8.6 | 8.5 -120 |
| 26 | Cincinnati Bengals | 9.6 | 9.5 -120 |
| 27 | New York Jets | 5.85 | 5.5 -145 |
| 28 | Houston Texans | 4.45 | 4.5 -105 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.6 | 7.5 -120 |
| 30 | Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 | 8.5 -110 |
| 31 | Los Angeles Rams | 10.4 | 10.5 +100 |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10.55 | 10.5 -115 |
2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization
While there aren’t perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2022 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.
Here is a visual breakdown of 2022 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each team, based on Vegas win totals.
How Accurate is Warren Sharp’s Model for determining Strength of Schedule?
Last season (2021), the Top 8 teams with the most difficult schedule were: Raiders, Texans, Chiefs, Lions, Steelers, Cardinals, Giants & Commanders.
- Warren Sharp’s 2021 NFL Strength of Schedule methodology correctly forecasted all of them would have Top 8 toughest schedules except the Chiefs (#20).
Last season (2021), the Top 7 teams with the easiest schedule were: Bills, Buccaneers, Bengals, Broncos, Eagles, Dolphins & Cowboys.
- Warren Sharp’s 2021 NFL Strength of Schedule methodology correctly forecasted that 6 of these Top 7 teams would rank inside the Top 10 easiest schedules (only the Bengals did not).
Are Strength of Schedule projections released this early even accurate?
Short answer: YES
- Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the hardest 2021 schedules, only 3 went over their projected win total: Cardinals, Steelers, Raiders
- Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the easiest 2021 schedules, only 3 went under their projected win total: Bills, Broncos, Browns
Trying to exceed and overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (3 out of 10 in 2021) and likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectation was quite regular (only 3 out of 10 did not).
2022 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2021 Actuals
Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2021) versus projected 2022 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.
| Team | 2022 SOS | 2021 Actual SOS | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 1 | 31 | 1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 11 | 6 |
| Chicago Bears | 4 | 24 | 4 |
| Detroit Lions | 5 | 28 | 3 |
| Washington Commanders | 6 | 32 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 2 | 20 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11 | 15 | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 12 | 23 | 5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13 | 21 | 6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 14 | 19 | 10 |
| Green Bay Packers | 15 | 14 | 16 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 16 | 22 | 8 |
| Denver Broncos | 17 | 4 | 27 |
| Buffalo Bills | 18 | 1 | 30 |
| Miami Dolphins | 19 | 6 | 27 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 20 | 18 | 17 |
| Tennessee Titans | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 22 | 12 | 25 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 23 | 13 | 25 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 24 | 30 | 8 |
| New England Patriots | 25 | 8 | 30 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 26 | 3 | 32 |
| New York Jets | 27 | 20 | 24 |
| Houston Texans | 28 | 26 | 17 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 | 29 | 15 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 30 | 25 | 20 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 31 | 17 | 29 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 32 | 27 | 20 |
2022 Fantasy Football Rankings by Position:
- Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Rankings
- Quarterback Fantasy Football Rankings
- Rookie Rankings for Fantasy Football
- Running Backs Fantasy Football Rankings
- Tight End Fantasy Football Rankings
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