The 2023 NFL Draft is now in the rearview mirror, so it is time to turn our attention to the 2024 class.
It is almost impossible to create accurate player/team matches this far in advance, so don’t get too caught up in arguing whether your team would select this prospect over that prospect. Instead, treat this mock draft like a watch list 一 in some order, these are the 32 players I feel have the best chance to come off the board in the first round next April.
The draft order is based on the current 2023 Super Bowl odds.
All stats are from the Sports Info Solutions Data Hub.
Early 2024 NFL Mock Draft
|2||Cardinals (from HOU)||Marvin Harrison Jr.||WR||Ohio State|
|3||Colts||Olu Fashanu||OT||Penn State|
|4||Titans||Joe Alt||OT||Notre Dame|
|5||Bears (from CAR)||Jared Verse||EDGE||Florida State|
|6||Falcons||Drake Maye||QB||North Carolina|
|8||Patriots||Leonard Taylor III||DL||Miami FL|
|11||Packers||Blake Fisher||OT||Notre Dame|
|12||Bears||Kalen King||CB||Penn State|
|16||Raiders||Michael Penix Jr.||QB||Washington|
|18||Saints||J.T. Tuimoloau||EDGE||Ohio State|
|19||Texans (from CLE)||Shemar Turner||DL||Texas A&M|
|20||Jaguars||Jason Marshall Jr.||CB||Florida|
|22||Dolphins||Michael Hall||DL||Ohio State|
|24||Chargers||TreVeyon Henderson||RB||Ohio State|
|25||Lions||Chop Robinson||EDGE||Penn State|
|26||Packers (from NYJ)||Princely Umanmielen||EDGE||Florida|
|27||Cowboys||Emeka Egbuka||WR||Ohio State|
|30||Eagles||Cooper Beebe||OG||Kansas State|
1. Arizona Cardinals, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Williams, the reigning Heisman winner, is college football’s Patrick Mahomes and will be the most coveted prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012. His arm strength, athleticism and ability to create off-script are what sets him apart.
Key stat to know about Caleb Williams:
When facing pressure, Williams generated a 1.0 boom-bust ratio (the ratio of plays generating +1 EPA versus -1 EPA), the fourth-best rate in the nation.
2. Arizona Cardinals via Houston Texans, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Harrison has the route-running savviness of his father but in a 6-foot-4 frame. He will be the most coveted receiver to enter the draft since Calvin Johnson in 2007.
Key stat to know about Marvin Harrison Jr.:
Based on route-adjusted metrics, Harrison’s career catch rate is 8.8% above expected, the sixth-highest rate in the Big Ten over the last two seasons.
3. Indianapolis Colts, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Fashanu has made just nine career starts as Penn State’s left tackle but already received a first-round grade from the NFL’s advisory committee last offseason before deciding to return to school.
Key stat to know about Olu Fashanu:
Two career blown blocks in pass protection in 329 snaps (0.6%).
4. Tennessee Titans, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The 6-foot-7 Alt looks like the prototypical left tackle. He started as a true freshman in 2021 and ascended to one of the best in the nation during a dominant 2022 campaign.
Key stat to know about Joe Alt:
Generated a 1.3% blown-block rate in pass protection in 2022.
5. Chicago Bears via Carolina Panthers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Verse was a dominant pass-rusher at Albany before transferring to Florida State last year and maintaining his production in the ACC. He puts immediate stress on offensive tackles with his quick first step off the snap.
Key stat to know about Jared Verse:
Generated a 19.9% pressure rate when lined up on the edge last season, the fourth-highest rate among Power Five edge rushers.
6. Atlanta Falcons, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
The 6-foot-4 Maye has looked like a future top-10 pick from the moment he took the field as a true freshman in 2021. He’s an accurate passer from the pocket, but mobility has been an equally valuable part of his game.
Key stat to know about Drake Maye:
Based on route-adjusted data, Maye’s on-target rate was 5.2% higher than expected, the fifth-best rate among Power 5 quarterbacks.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Turner is an athletic edge-rusher who wins with speed. He’ll need to prove he can maintain his production without Will Anderson Jr. attracting the offense’s attention.
Key stat to know about Dallas Turner:
Generated a 22% pressure rate when the quarterback took a traditional dropback (three or more steps), ranked fifth in the SEC in 2022.
8. New England Patriots, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Leonard Taylor III, DL, Miami FL
Taylor, a former five-star recruit, emerged as one of the nation’s most dominant interior pass-rushers as a true sophomore in 2022. His combination of strength and quickness is rare for an interior lineman.
Key stat to know about Leonard Taylor III:
Generated a 13.9% pressure rate on the interior defensive line 一 among Power Five linemen, only Buccaneers first-round pick Calijah Kancey had a higher rate.
9. Washington Commanders, Top Draft Pick Prediction: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Latham was a first-year starter at right tackle as a true sophomore last season and was immediately among the best in the nation. With Tyler Steen now in the NFL, Latham is expected to slide over to the left side in 2023.
Key stat to know about JC Latham:
Generated a 1.2% blown-block rate in pass protection in 2022.
10. Los Angeles Rams, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois
Bret Bielema is starting to churn out defensive talent at Illinois, and Newton should be his next top prospect. Newton may be slightly undersized but is among the quickest interior pass rushers in the nation.
Key stat to know about Jer’Zhan Newton:
Generated a 10.3% pressure rate while lined up on the interior defensive line, ranked third in the Big Ten.
11. Green Bay Packers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Blake Fisher, OT, Notre Dame
Fisher is a former five-star recruit who improved throughout his first full season as a starter in 2022. Due to the presence of Joe Alt, Fisher has played right tackle, but he appears to have the athleticism to play on the left side as well.
Key stat to know about Blake Fisher:
Zero career holding penalties in pass protection.
12. Chicago Bears, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Kalen King, CB, Penn State
By the end of 2022, King had surpassed Joey Porter Jr. as the top cornerback in Penn State’s secondary. If King replicates his on-ball production from last year, he’ll solidify himself as the top corner in the 2024 class.
Key stat to know about Kalen King:
Based on route-adjusted data, he allowed a catch rate 39% below expected in 2022.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Suamataia, who originally attended Oregon, is a wide-bodied right tackle prospect. He’s a dominant run-blocker who could also be viewed as a guard by NFL teams. He’s younger than most BYU prospects and will be just 20 years old during the upcoming season.
Key stat to know about Kingsley Suamataia:
BYU ball carriers averaged 3.4 yards before contact per attempt running to his gap.
14. Minnesota Vikings, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Maason Smith, DL, LSU
Smith is a former five-star recruit who looks like he was built in a lab. A torn ACL ended his 2022 season after just one game, but expectations are high for his return this fall.
Key stat to know about Maason Smith:
Generated a 9.0% pressure rate when lined up on the interior defensive line in 2021.
15. New York Giants, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Following a wide receiver class devoid of size, the league will be looking for bigger weapons next year. The 6-foot-3 Odunze has the size and speed to stretch the field from the outside.
Key stat to know about Rome Odunze:
Based on route-adjusted metrics, generated a catch rate 9.8% above expected.
16. Las Vegas Raiders, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
It’s been a roller coaster of a career for Penix, but he got back on track last year under coach Kalen DeBoer, who also worked with Penix in 2019 at Indiana. If Penix continues to build upon last year’s improved accuracy, his athleticism and arm strength could land him a spot in the first round.
Key stat to know about Michael Penix Jr.:
Based on route-adjusted data, generated an on-target rate 2.0% higher than expected in 2022 一 a significant jump from his -12.1% rate the previous season.
17. Seattle Seahawks, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington
In his first season as a starter, Trice immediately elevated the Huskies’ pass-rush unit with his blend of speed and power.
Key stat to know about Bralen Trice:
Generated a 17.6% pressure rate when lined up on the edge, ranked third in the Pac-12.
18. New Orleans Saints, Top Draft Pick Prediction: J.T. Tuimoloau, EDGE, Ohio State
Tuimoloau’s blend of athleticism and power is special. His game against Penn State last year (two interceptions, two sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery) was among the most dominant defensive performances ever witnessed.
Key stat to know about J.T. Tuimoloau:
Generated a 12.8% pressure rate when lined up on the edge in 2022.
19. Houston Texans via Cleveland Browns, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Shemar Turner, DL, Texas A&M
Turner is a former five-star prospect who hasn’t put up eye-catching stats. However, A&M moves him all over the defensive line, which has limited his ability to fully develop his skills in any one spot 一 the ceiling as an interior pass-rusher remains extremely high.
Key stat to know about Shemar Turner:
On pass-rush snaps, lined up on the edge for 114 plays and on the interior on 106 snaps.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jason Marshall Jr., CB, Florida
Marshall is still developing his technique, but he’s already producing due to his length and ability to make plays on the ball.
Key stat to know about Jason Marshall Jr.:
Based on route-adjusted data, allowed a catch rate 13% below expected in 2022.
21. Denver Broncos, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Dorian Singer, WR, USC
Singer was one of the breakout stars of 2022 at Arizona and should put up huge numbers stepping in for Jordan Addison at USC. Singer is still developing as a route-runner, but he’s bigger and possibly faster than Addison.
Key stat to know about Dorian Singer:
Based on route-adjusted data, generated 12.6% more yards after the catch than expected (Addison in 2022: 12.5%).
22. Miami Dolphins, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Michael Hall Jr., DL, Ohio State
Hall is one of the top interior pass-rushers in the college game, primarily winning with a quick burst off the snap. We’ll need to see his Combine numbers (specifically weight and length) to know for certain how he’ll be viewed as a prospect.
Key stat to know about Michael Hall Jr.:
Generated a pressure rate of 11% when lined up on the interior defensive line, the eighth-highest rate among Power Five players.
23. Baltimore Ravens, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
McKinstry is a former five-star recruit whose athleticism immediately translated to the college game. He’ll need to become a more physical presence to live up to lofty expectations heading into the 2023 season.
Key stat to know about Kool-Aid McKinstry:
Based on route-adjusted data, he allowed a catch rate 22% below expected in 2022.
24. Los Angeles Chargers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State
Injuries derailed Henderson’s 2022 campaign, but he’s among the most explosive weapons in the college game. He’s not quite on Bijan Robinson’s level, but Henderson has a similar blend of power, speed and ability to impact the passing game.
Key stat to know about TreVeyon Henderson:
Averaged 3.9 yards after contact per attempt in 2021, ranked second in the Big Ten.
25. Detroit Lions, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Robinson, a transfer from Maryland, was among the most reliable pass rushers in the Big Ten in 2022. His burst off the snap is tough to contain and allows him to win despite modest length and power for the position.
Key stat to know about Chop Robinson:
Generated a 16.8% pressure rate when quarterback took a dropback of three or more steps, ranked seventh in Big Ten.
26. Green Bay Packers via New York Jets, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Princely Umanmielen, EDGE, Florida
Umanmielen is entering his third year as a starter at Florida, showing steady development throughout his career. Few players in the college game can match his blend of strength and athleticism on the edge. If he picks up where he left off late in the 2022 season, he could continue to rise up the rankings.
Key stat to know about Princely Umanmielen:
Generated a 12.5% pressure rate when lined up on the edge in 2022.
27. Dallas Cowboys, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Egbuka fits the Chris Olave mold as a savvy route-runner with great hands 一 he even switched to Olave’s old number two last year.
Key stat to know about Emeka Egbuka:
Caught 84% of his catchable targets at 10 or more yards downfield last year, the second-highest rate in the Big Ten.
28. Buffalo Bills, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington
The 6-foot-6 Rosengarten was impressive during his first year as a starter at right tackle in 2022. He’s at his best in pass protection and appears to have the athleticism to be considered a left tackle prospect as well.
Key stat to know about Roger Rosengarten:
Generated a 1.6% blown-block rate in pass protection in 2022.
29. Cincinnati Bengals, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Graham Barton, OT, Duke
Barton could be next year’s Peter Skoronski 一 a college tackle with near-flawless fundamentals but average measurables which may dictate a shift inside in the pros.
Key stat to know about Graham Barton:
Duke ball carriers averaged 2.7 yards before contact per attempt running to his gap.
30. Philadelphia Eagles, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Cooper Beebe, OG, Kansas State
Beebe has started at left tackle and right tackle, but his production ascended to another level in 2022 when he shifted to left guard. He’s a good athlete for an interior lineman and played a vital role in the Wildcats’ run game.
Key stat to know about Cooper Beebe:
Kansas State ball carriers averaged 2.9 yards before contact per attempt running to his gap.
31. San Francisco 49ers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Bowers is among the most explosive tight ends in recent memory, but his Combine measurements will play a role in where he lands in the draft. He’s listed at 6-foot-4, 230 pounds 一 even smaller than Evan Engram, who is easily the smallest first-round tight end of the past two decades.
Key stat to know about Brock Bowers:
Based on route-adjusted metrics, gained 24% more yards after the catch than expected in 2022, ranked sixth among SEC receivers and tight ends.
32. Kansas City Chiefs, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Listed at 6-foot-1 and 164 pounds, Worthy is built like DeVonta Smith and has similar explosive skills, but hasn’t quite put it all together yet. After a promising freshman year in 2021, he and quarterback Quinn Ewers really struggled to get on the same page last season.
Key stat to know about Xavier Worthy:
Averaged 10.3 yards per target when lined up on the outside in 2021 and just 7.5 in 2022.