The NFL Playoffs are upon us. As exciting as it is to get the first round going, the teams playing this weekend are at a bit of a disadvantage due to the recent success of playoff teams that get a first-round bye. For a team that is going to buck that trend, they’ll have to win this weekend. With that in mind, we’ll take a look at four questions — one for each game — that could impact the results of Wild Card Weekend.
Will the Bills pass up deep attempts?
Josh Allen’s arm strength is typically the attribute that gets brought up most often when the Buffalo quarterback is discussed. But so far throughout Allen’s two-year career, and especially in 2019, the arm strength and deep accuracy haven’t been standout qualities. This season, among 30 quarterbacks with at least 30 passes that traveled 20 or more yards past the line of scrimmage, Allen ranked 29th in on-target percentage and 28th in completion percentage, per Sports Info Solutions.
The addition of John Brown has helped when those deep throws were able to be open, but he could only do what his quarterback allowed. Brown had the fifth-most deep targets in the league this season, but was just 25th in Expected Points Added on those targets and just 37% of those plays resulted in positive EPA, which ranked 20th of 28 players with at least 20 such targets.
Brown has actually been more effective in the short to intermediate area of the field, where he ranked 20th in EPA on the 27th-most targets between 1 and 19 yards past the line of scrimmage. Buffalo’s other receiver addition, Cole Beasley, has also been effective in that area.
All of this matches where the Bills should target the Houston Texans’ defense. Per Football Outsiders, the Texans are fourth in DVOA against deep attempts but rank just 30th against short passes.
Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has done an excellent job shifting the offense from the deep attack to a more ball-control offense which limits dangerous throws from Allen. But in a potentially low-scoring game, Buffalo could be desperate to get something going with a quick strike. Based on the regular season performance of these two teams, that could be forcing a weakness against strength.
Can the Titans stick with play-action?
No team was better on play-action than the Tennessee Titans in 2019. Per Football Outsiders, they ranked first in yards per play at 10.8. Since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting quarterback in Week 7, only the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers had more total EPA on play-action attempts than the Titans and just the Saints had a higher positive play rate. During the regular season, the Titans used play-action on 29% of their drop backs which was the eighth-highest rate in the league.
For Tennessee, the play-action game has helped to create open windows, especially on intermediate throws, which has led to many Tannehill completions and has created yards after the catch opportunities for A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith.
If there is one place the defense of the New England Patriots can be susceptible is off play-action attempts. The Patriots allowed the 10th-highest yards per play figure on opposing play-action attempts (7.3) and allowed the second-lowest yards per play figure on straight drop backs (5.1). That difference was the sixth-highest among NFL defenses in 2019.
The problem is most teams have been scared away from using play-action against the New England defense. Only 18% of opposing pass plays against the Patriots used play-action, which was the lowest rate in the league.
Much of that was game-script driven. Per Football Outsiders’ drive stats, even while the Patriots offense was not a typically dominant unit, the New England defense started its average drive with a lead of 7.99 points. That type of game script typically forces an offense to abandon play-action as it abandons the run to catch up, but if the Titans can keep the game close early, they can feel more comfortable sticking with play-action deep into the second half.
Can the Vikings cover anyone?
This would have been a question if the Vikings were fully healthy in the secondary, but that won’t be the case. Both Mackenzie Alexander and Mike Hughes have been ruled out for this game, with the latter placed on injured reserve.
The loss of Alexander will be the most impactful for the Vikings as the best performer of the group during the regular season and the slot corner who could have matched up with Michael Thomas often. Alexander was the only full-time Vikings corner who was above average in Adjusted Yards allowed per coverage snap this season.
Minnesota will be stick with Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes on the outside, both of whom have been picked on during stretches of the 2019 season. The Vikings have an exceptional safety tandem in Harrison Smith, who has played closer to the line of scrimmage this season, and Anthony Harris, who has been one of the league’s best deep safeties.
New Orleans is one of the least reliant offenses on deep passing, so most of their damage will be done on shorter passes with Thomas and Alvin Kamara, which will more often than not take the safety play out of the equation.
The Vikings’ best coverage advantage comes against tight ends, where Eric Kendricks has been a shutdown option in coverage and Minnesota ranked first in DVOA against the position. Jared Cook and Josh Hill combined for 100 targets in the regular season, but taking those options away won’t severely limit the New Orleans passing game.
Will the Seahawks let Russell Wilson throw?
If Minnesota doesn’t have the weakest outside corners remaining in the playoffs, Philadelphia does. With the assumption of rational coaching, the Seattle Seahawks would allow Russell Wilson to sling the ball all over the field to take advantage of a weak secondary, But these are the Pete Carroll Seahawks we’re talking about.
The Seahawks had the sixth-lowest pass-to-run ratio in the league this season and that didn’t really change given the opponent. Seattle only topped 65% passing in a game three times this season, Week 3 against the Saints, Week 9 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Week 14 against the Los Angeles Rams, and those were mostly game script related.
Seattle believes its rushing offense is a strength, even with Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer leading the charge. But even at full strength, the Seahawks were much better throwing the ball than running. A run-heavy approach would also be beneficial for the Eagles’ defense, a unit that was much stronger against the run than the pass during the regular season. Philadelphia was fourth against the run by DVOA and just 16th against the pass.
When these two teams last met in Week 12, the Seahawks only passed 54% of the time and they didn’t have much success. However, that was with a banged-up Tyler Lockett and a poor execution day from D.K. Metcalf. Seattle could take that game and realize they still have an advantage in the passing game or think they could struggle with the pass again and turn this into another typical slog of a Seahawks game.
