There are two key factors to consider when thinking about the massive Sunday Night Football matchup between the Ravens and Bills: How much the Ravens use heavy personnel and how much the Bills man blitz Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens are already without TE Isaiah Likely, AND we're now seeing FB Patrick Ricard not practicing with a calf injury.
I don't think people realize how massive this is.
The Ravens played the #1 LOWEST rate of three wide receivers last year.
40% of the Ravens' plays were two running back sets, most with a fullback.
#2 most in the NFL.
You can't do that without Ricard.
46% of Ravens plays featured multiple TEs, predominantly Mark Andrews and Likely.
#5 most in the NFL.
You can't do it at that rate without Likely.
In total, they played the #1 highest rate of heavy personnel, including 2+ tight ends and a fullback.
Did it matter from an efficiency perspective?
It definitely did.
Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available
Warren Sharp is entering his 20th year providing winning betting recommendations to clients.
He has hit on 57% of his lifetime college recommendations, including 73% of his top selections.
A $100 bettor was up $15,636 following Warren’s picks for both college and the NFL last season.
Click here to learn more about 2025 Betting Packages!
When running with heavy personnel, the Ravens ranked #1 in expected points added and #1 in success rate when running the ball.
But, out of 3+ WR sets, Baltimore's run efficiency dipped to #11 in EPA and #21 in success.
And when passing, the Ravens' EPA per attempt dipped sharply as well.
As it relates to the Bills, what I'm most curious to see is how often they blitz Jackson and play man coverage.
These teams met twice last year.
The first meeting, the Bills blitzed Jackson on 25% of his snaps, his fourth-lowest rate in a game last season.
They only played man coverage on 16.0% of their snaps.
In that blowout loss, the Bills man blitzed Jackson on just 10% of dropbacks.
In their rematch?
The Bills used man blitzes on an INSANE 48% of early down passes and 37% of all dropbacks!
They followed the recipe that other teams have used against Jackson.
Jackson is the best quarterback in the NFL when not blitzed.
Last year, he averaged 8.9 yards per attempt and 30 touchdowns to 1 interception when not blitzed.
But when faced with man blitzes, he averaged just 6.5 Y/A.
And when the Bills used man blitzes in the playoff game, Jackson averaged:
- -0.38 EPA/attempt
- 10% success rate
- 2.4 Y/A
The Ravens know this.
Monken commented on it this offseason and said they'd try to fix it.
The Bills know this, which is why they upped their man blitz rate.
How often will the Bills man blitz? And how will the Ravens fare against it?
These are the two biggest aspects of this game, and I cannot wait to see it play out.
