In Year 11, Matthew Stafford had arguably the most impressive season of his career as an NFL quarterback. Unfortunately, Stafford’s season lasted just eight games before a hip/back injury forced him to miss the second half of the season. Thanks to one of the league’s worst defenses and some questionable coaching, the Detroit Lions were only 3-4-1 with an incredible Stafford performance. Though without it, they went 0-8.
The Lions now find themselves in a potentially advantageous position for the 2020 season. There are a number of underlying metrics that suggest Detroit should be a much-improved team in the coming year. By point differential, the Lions played more like a 6-10 team than the 3-12-1 record they finished with and while 6-10 isn’t exciting, that’s also a three-win gap. Teams that underperform their point differential by that much tend to have a sizable improvement the following year.
Detroit also went hard on the defensive side of the ball. Free agents Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton, and Duron Harmon were brought in after spending time with the Patriots. Even as Darius Slay was sent to Philadelphia in a trade, the Lions selected Jeff Okudah with the third overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. That’s a ton of talent added for a defense that was 30th in DVOA last season, 29th in yards allowed per drive, and 24th in points allowed per drive.
Just a small improvement from the defense could put the Lions close to the top of a division currently in turmoil. The Green Bay Packers were a fluky 13-3 team (9.7 Pythagorean wins) with a questionable offseason, the Minnesota Vikings lost a ton of talent and will rely on young players to immediately step up, and the winner of the Mitchell Trubisky-Nick Foles quarterback competition for the Chicago Bears will be either Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles.
The NFC North is wide open and how big of a factor the Lions become will hinge on what version of Matthew Stafford is on the field. If it’s anything close to 2019 Stafford, Detroit could be worth paying close attention to in 2020.
Stafford’s 2019 saw him combine the best parts of his past offenses — the aggressiveness of his early years with the quick release of the Jim Bob Cooter ball control era. Under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, Stafford was able to air the ball out. That highlighted the strengths of both the quarterback and receivers in the offense. Take a look at where Kenny Golladay was targeted in 2018…
…compared to where he was targeted over the first half of 2019 when Stafford was healthy:
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, no quarterback had a higher average depth of target or average completion than Stafford in 2019. Jameis Winston was second in both categories. Stafford’s 2019 was basically Jamies Winston without the interceptions.
Matthew Stafford vs Jameis Winston, 2019
| QB | Time to Throw | Avg. Comp | aDOT | Tight Window% | INT% | Exp. Comp% | Comp% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stafford | 2.69 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 23.4% | 1.7% | 60.9% | 64.3% | 3.4 |
| Winston | 2.77 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 16.8% | 4.3% | 60.8% | 60.7% | -0.1 |
*data per NFL Next Gen Stats
A big question for how this translates to 2020 is how well Stafford can avoid interceptions while being so aggressive into tight windows down the field. No one threw into tight windows more often than Stafford’s 23.4% last season, per Next Gen Stats. A high rate of throws into tight windows often comes with the risk of a low completion rate and a high chance of an interception. But Stafford threw a pick on just 1.7% of his attempts, the 12th lowest rate in the league among quarterbacks qualified for the passing title.
Avoiding interceptions isn’t actually a new thing for Stafford, a rarity for his archetype of a big-armed quarterback. Stafford has put up a better-than-average interception rate in all but two seasons, his rookie year and 2013. In four of the past six seasons, Stafford has put up an interception rate at least 10% better than league average.
More impressively, Stafford has been able to limit turnovers even when throwing into tight windows often. There have been 22 quarterback seasons since 2017 with a quarterback eclipsing 20% of his throws into tight windows. While Stafford is responsible for two of those (and with Carson Wentz, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Cam Newton as quarterbacks with two appearances on that list), he’s also responsible for two of the lowest interception rates of that group. The average interception rate of that small sample of quarterback seasons was 2.9%. Stafford has been under 2.0% in both of his qualified seasons, something that has been accomplished by just three other quarterbacks on that list.
Seasons with 20%+ Tight Window Throws & Sub-2% INT Rate
| QB | Year | TW% | INT% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 2016 | 20.9% | 0.9% |
| Matt Ryan | 2016 | 21.0% | 1.3% |
| Carson Wentz | 2017 | 25.7% | 1.6% |
| Matthew Stafford | 2016 | 20.6% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Stafford | 2019 | 23.4% | 1.7% |
Part of this also comes from the current crop of Lions receivers, who are consistently among the best contested catch receivers. Kenny Golladay, specifically, has owned the catch point throughout his career. But also, Stafford has showed the accuracy to turn those tight window throws into likely completions by placing the ball in an area that takes the defender out of the play.
Take, for example, this play against the Kansas City Chiefs on a 2nd and 4 just over midfield. Coverage was tight all the way down the sideline, but the ball was placed perfectly on the back shoulder so Marvin Hall is able to adjust and cornerback Charvarious Ward has no way to make a play.
Or Stafford can lead a receiver perfectly down the sideline, which allows for a clean catch point with the defender still close in coverage.
The biggest issue for Stafford had been sacks, but that was not an issue in 2019. As Stafford threw the ball further down the field than he had in the previous two seasons, he did not spend significantly more time in the pocket. His average time to throw went from 2.64 seconds in 2018 (aDot of 7.0, average completion of 4.7) to just 2.69 in 2019. The offensive line only had a moderate improvement from 18th to 15th by ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate.
When Stafford got a clean pocket in 2019, he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Per Sports Info Solutions, he finished the season ranked ninth in EPA from a clean pocket (and with his lack of attempts, led in efficiency for a per-throw basis). This is a quick reminder that Stafford played eight games.
EPA from a clean pocket, 2019
| Player | Team | Att | EPA | EPA/Att | Positive% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 381 | 125.2 | 0.33 | 60.4% |
| Jameis Winston | Buccaneers | 434 | 118.6 | 0.27 | 56.0% |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 285 | 110.7 | 0.39 | 56.5% |
| Philip Rivers | Chargers | 401 | 109.2 | 0.27 | 58.9% |
| Matt Ryan | Falcons | 382 | 108.4 | 0.28 | 57.6% |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 252 | 104.1 | 0.41 | 56.3% |
| Tom Brady | Patriots | 435 | 102.1 | 0.23 | 54.0% |
| Jared Goff | Rams | 373 | 96.1 | 0.26 | 55.2% |
| Matthew Stafford | Lions | 185 | 92.4 | 0.50 | 60.5% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 49ers | 325 | 91.9 | 0.28 | 54.8% |
Play from a clean pocket is stable and a good predictor from year to year, which is a positive for Stafford and the Lions in 2020. Detroit will continue to have continuity on that side of the ball with the same set of receivers and another year of Bevell’s coordination. Allowing the offense to push the ball down the field serves as the best use for all the skill position players.
If this type of production can continue with just a slight improvement from either the defense or the running game (27th in DVOA), the Lions could be a much better team in 2020 and we could be looking at Matthew Stafford as one of the top quarterbacks for the upcoming season.
