This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $50 off using promo code SB60
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If the Patriots lose this Super Bowl and it’s because, in part, Seattle increases their rate of Cover 6, then Seattle can thank Sean McDermott.
And McDermott will have gotten one final laugh.
The Bills play Cover 2 at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
Buffalo plays two-high on 49% of all dropbacks, #3 in the NFL (Seattle is #2 highest).
But of their two-high snaps, not many are in Cover 6.
The Bills play Cover 6 on just 11.6% of snaps when not playing the Patriots.
In Week 5, the Bills lost to Drake Maye playing Cover 6 on 11.8% of coverage snaps, right in line with their YTD average.
But for some reason, McDermott saw something and massively changed his deployment of coverages in the rematch.
In Week 15, McDermott used Cover 6 on 50% of dropbacks!
Not only was that by far out of character and most for the Bills of the season, but it was also most for any team against the Patriots to that point in the season.
And in that game, against Cover 6, Maye averaged -0.34 EPA/attempt, had a 23% success rate, threw for 4.3 Y/A, and had a 64% completion rate.
The Bills also were in Cover 6 when Maye threw an interception.
The choice helped the Bills win, handing the Patriots their first loss after 10 consecutive wins.
Here’s what the coverage looked like compared to prior coverages against the Patriots:
Well, after that game, opposing defensive coordinators started to take notice.
NOTE: Keep in mind, the average rate of Cover 6 is just 9.8% around the NFL.
Baltimore, the next game for the Patriots, jacked up their Cover 6 rate.
Baltimore normally plays the NFL’s lowest rate of two-high safeties (29%).
Entering the game, they had played Cover 6 on just 10.4% of snaps on the season.
Baltimore went 20.8% Cover 6 against the Patriots, DOUBLE their average.
The next two games were against bad teams playing for nothing (Week 17 against the Jets, Week 18 against the Dolphins).
But in the Wild Card game, the Chargers, who typically play Cover 6 on just 8.9% of dropbacks, played Cover 6 on 20% of dropbacks against the Patriots.
In the Divisional Round game, the Texans, who typically play Cover 6 on 13.7% of dropbacks, played it on 21.9% of dropbacks against the Patriots.
And in the Conference Championship game, the Broncos, who typically play Cover 6 on just 10.7% of dropbacks, played it on 23.1% of dropbacks.
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For some of these teams, the results in Cover 6 weren’t that great, but it was a coverage they weren’t accustomed to playing much during the season.
The results are not the point.
The trend is the point.
Teams saw what worked for the Bills.
This coverage nearly helped the Ravens upset the Patriots, despite the fact that Lamar Jackson was knocked from the game in the first half and Tyler Huntley was the quarterback for most of the game.
Against the Ravens' Cover 6, Maye was 2 of 8 for 11 yards, threw 1 interception, and took 2 sacks.
He averaged -0.90 EPA per attempt, a 20% success rate, 1.4 Y/A, and a 20% completion rate.
And the Ravens played two-high at the lowest rate in the NFL! And rarely play Cover 6!
A trend started by McDermott and copied by Baltimore.
Two games, back-to-back weeks.
And against Cover 6 in those two games, Maye was:
-0.58 EPA/attempt, 22% success rate, 3.1 Y/A, 9 of 19 (47% completion rate) with 2 INTs and 4 sacks along with a 61% pressure rate
Maye’s time-to-throw was an incredible 3.67 seconds!
He struggled massively with the coverage.
And the copycat began.
Here’s how Cover 6 has been utilized vs the Patriots this year:
Cover 6 has given Maye the most problems of any coverage.
He’s done well against zone this year overall, though the caveat here should be that most of these snaps were against bad pass defenses in general.
But look at what he’s done against Cover 6:
Vs. man: +0.21 EPA/attempt, 49% success rate, 9.2 Y/A, 64% completion rate
Vs. zone (non-Cover 6): +0.23 EPA/attempt, 52% success rate, 9.2 Y/A, 75% completion rate
Vs. Cover 6: -0.15 EPA/attempt, 38% success rate, 5.9 Y/A, 60% completion rate
Where does this rank for the season?
Out of 36 QBs with 200+ attempts, including the playoffs:
Vs. man: #7 in EPA, #4 in success rate, and #1 in Y/A
Vs. zone (non-Cover 6): #1 in EPA, #3 in success rate, and #1 in Y/A
Vs. Cover 6: #31 in EPA, #33 in success rate, and #32 in Y/A
Compare Maye’s stats against Cover 6 to all pass schemes he’s dropped back at least 40 times this year:
There are other interesting aspects to Maye when dropping back against Cover 6:
With less blitzing, Maye holds onto the ball for a LONG time, averaging 3.15 seconds before throwing with over 52% of his dropbacks lasting over 3 seconds.
He gets pressured at a 42.9% rate.
Between the very low Y/A of 5.8, the minuscule explosive pass rate (3.5%), and high sack rate (9.5%), Maye’s average net yards per attempt (includes sack yardage) is only 2.5!
During the regular season, his net yards per attempt average was 2.1.
2.1 net yards per attempt in 63 dropbacks against Cover 6!
That ranked #36 out of 36 qualifying QBs.
Taking things full circle without dwelling here, but of the 14 teams to make the playoffs, no team has played Cover 6 more than the Seahawks (25%).
During the regular season, the Seahawks played Cover 6 at the #3 highest rate.
Obviously, this Seattle defense plays more Cover 6 than any defense the Patriots have faced this season.
And given what opponents have looked to do against the Patriots, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Seattle lean even more into Cover 6 against Maye in the Super Bowl.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $50 off using promo code SB60
Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!
