There are 50 RBs with 350+ attempts in the last 4 years.
And none of them faced more loaded boxes than Derrick Henry.
His 88.4% rate vs. 7+ man boxes was, by far, #1 in the NFL.
It was nearly 15% above the NFL average.
In fact, over 53% of his runs came against 8+ man boxes.
And DESPITE THAT, he ranked #11 in both YPC and EPA/att out of those 50 RBs.
On third down, that’s where his talent really shines despite massive obstacles.
A whopping 94% of his third-down runs the last four years came against loaded boxes.
And yet, out of 50 RBs, he still ranked:
- #1 in 1st down rate (81%)
- #2 in success rate
- #2 in EPA/rush
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A better situation for Derrick Henry
Even as he approached 30 years of age, Henry didn’t really slow down despite playing behind a questionable offensive line last season.
The Titans ranked #21 in ESPN’s run block win rate. The Ravens offensive line? They ranked #5 last year.
Looking at yards before contact per rush (more of an offensive line stat), Henry ranked #44 of 49 RBs in yards before contact per rush.
Meanwhile, Gus Edwards (Ravens #1 RB) ranked well above average at #17 of 49, meaning life will certainly get easier for Henry in Baltimore.
The Titans also were one of the NFL’s most predictable teams running the ball on early downs and have been so for years.
Last year, they ran the ball on over 50% of early downs in the first three quarters, ranking #3 in run rate.
After a first down incompletion, the Titans ran the ball on nearly 60% of their second down plays, the #5 highest run rate in the NFL.
Compare their run/pass tendencies last year to the Ravens:
- Ravens: 76% pass (#3) after a first down incompletion
- Titans: 41% pass (#28) after a first down incompletion
- Ravens: 60% pass (#6) on early downs in the first half
- Titans: 51% pass (#29) on early downs in the first half
With Henry now on the Ravens, he’ll be running behind a better offensive line and with a much better quarterback who passes the ball more often.
This will force defenses to respect the pass game more and will give Henry better opportunities to run the ball against lighter boxes than he faced in Tennessee.
How Henry helps Lamar Jackson
So not only will this help the Ravens run game, but also look at how it will help the Ravens pass game.
If defenses choose to use a heavier box against Henry in Baltimore, they’ll be in for a ton of trouble.
Look at where Lamar Jackson ranked last season when passing the ball vs. a 7+ man box out of 30 qualified QBs with at least 80 such attempts (Lamar had 158 dropbacks):
- #1 in EPA/dropback (+0.27)
- #1 in success rate (56%)
- #3 in completion rate (72%)
- #4 in YPA (9.1)
- #4 in first down rate (41%)
These are STAGGERING numbers.
And look at how the Ravens attacked these heavier boxes.
It wasn’t with short, underneath throws.
It was with aggressive, downfield throws.
He ranked:
- #4 in air yards per attempt (9.2)
- #1 in 10+ yard gains per attempt (39%)
- #5 in 15+ yard gains per attempt (23%)
The Titans QBs last year, Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis, likewise chucked the ball downfield vs 7+ man boxes, but their completion rates were well below average (#23 and #25 respectively out of 30 QBs, both sub-62% completion).
Lamar completed his passes at the #3 highest rate (72%, 10% better than the Titans’ QBs) despite throwing so deep.
This looks to be a great signing for the Ravens, for Henry himself, and even for Jackson.
