There is a risk-reward balance for every decision in the NFL. Over the past few years, many of those decisions have swung toward the aggressive side. But one area where NFL teams have pulled back is with the blitz.

We dove into the overarching impact of the league’s declining blitz rate, especially among the best quarterbacks, during the regular season. Some of the league’s top quarterbacks are getting so good at picking apart the blitz, defenses have stopped sending extra pass rushers.

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This trend will shape the defensive game plans across the Divisional Round. Among the eight quarterbacks set to take the field, only one (Ryan Tannehill, 28.5%) ranked among the 10 most blitzed passers in the league. Aaron Rodgers (26.8%) is 11th. The rest of the quarterbacks in the Divisional Round have been blitzed on fewer than 25% of their dropbacks.

There is good reason for that. Every quarterback in the Divisional Round ranked in the top-16 of EPA per dropback against the blitz during the regular season. The worst of the group was Josh Allen at 0.00 EPA per dropback. Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes make up the two-two. Jimmy Garoppolo (sixth), Joe Burrow (seventh), and Rodgers (eighth) all sit in the top-10.

*All data provided by TruMedia

When the weekend starts with Bengals-Titans, we could see one of the least blitzed matchups in the playoffs. Neither Cincinnati nor Tennessee wants to blitz all the much on defense. During the regular season, those two defenses ranked 30th and 31st in blitz rate. The only team lower was the Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati’s Wild Card opponent. In that game, Cincinnati blitzed 10.5% of dropbacks and Las Vegas sent an extra pass rusher on just 5.6%.

The Bengals want to rush four and can continually get pressure while doing so. Cincinnati had the third-highest pressure rate during the regular season on four-man rushes. The interior of the defensive line might be impacted in this game, but Trey Hendrickson is expected to be healthy and he’s been the main source of damage on the edge. Tannehill had negative EPA against a four-man rush during the regular season.

Tennessee’s outlook is a little different. They don’t blitz often, but they’ll disguise and put pressure on the offensive line, especially against empty sets. The Titans will often show a five-man front with a linebacker and the defensive linemen spread out. Against the Rams in Week 9, the Titans showed a five-man front against an empty look on third down. The interior defensive linemen were lined up across from the tackles with the edge rushers well outside. The Titans rushed four and got a one-on-one for Jeffery Simmons, who blew through the guard for a sack.

 

Cincinnati loves empty and stressing those five-man protections could serve just as must pressure as trying to actually block an extra pass rusher.

The 49ers and Packers had two of the lowest blitz rates in the league, both at 21%. San Francisco and Green Bay also were among the best defenses at creating pressure with four — Green Bay third and San Francisco fourth.

Few teams heavily blitzed the 49ers with Garoppolo behind center because of the structure of the offense. Garoppolo was either heavily involved in play-action or working the short dropback game so effectively that an extra pass rusher wouldn’t have time to create pressure. Against the 49ers, it’s more valuable to have an extra defender sitting in the middle of the field than one trying to rush the pass.

Against Rodgers, there is a very delicate balance defenses must face when deciding whether or not to blitz the quarterback. Few quarterbacks have been better against the blitz in their careers and that continued in 2021. But the way Rodgers plays against the blitz could play into a San Francisco strength.

Only Mahomes had a lower average depth of target against the blitz during the regular season. Part of what makes Rodgers (and most of these quarterbacks) so good against the extra pass rusher is knowing where the pressure is coming from, where the smart throw is, and getting the ball out quickly.

Defending short passes is where the 49ers have been best. On passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, the San Francisco defense was second in EPA per play. Using a well-timed blitz could force Rodgers to get the ball out quickly and prevent some more deep shots, where the 49ers have struggled.

This can be especially effective on early downs. Rodgers is third in the league in EPA per drop back on first and second down both against the blitz (0.26) and against a four-man rush (0.16). Against the blitz, Rodgers’s aDOT is 4.83 and only 6.4% of his passes travel over 20 yards past the line of scrimmage.

With a four-man rush, Rodgers still has a relatively low aDOT (6.73) but 12.5% of his pass attempts go deep.

Another piece to this is Rodgers struggled when pressure got to him with the extra pass rusher. His -0.78 when pressured with the blitz ranked 30th among quarterbacks. Of course, the problem is that few quarterbacks actually get pressured from the blitz less often than Rodgers.

Lowest Pressure Rate When Blitzed, 2021

PlayerPressure Rate When Blitzed
Ben Roethlisberger23%
Matthew Stafford25%
Tom Brady25.4%
Aaron Rodgers26.6%

The most interesting blitzing decision might come from the Buccaneers. Stafford was blitzed at the third-lowest rate in the league, just 20%, during the regular season. He’s going up against a Tampa Bay defense that blitzed the most during the regular season. That includes when these teams met back in Week 4.

Tampa Bay blitzed Stafford on 30.8% of his dropbacks, the second-highest blitz rate against Stafford during the regular season. Against the blitz, Stafford went 9-of-11 for 91 yards and a touchdown — 0.59 EPA per dropback.

While the rap on Stafford this season has revolved around if an offense can force him into making a mistake, that just doesn’t happen against the blitz. Stafford had no interceptions against extra pass rushers and just a 5.5% sack rate. 68.5% of Stafford’s throws come within 2.5 seconds of the snap against the blitz, opposed to 43.2% against a four-man rush. 

The Buccaneers only had two games during the regular season with a blitz rate under 25%. It’s ingrained in the DNA of Todd Bowles to send that extra pressure.

Stafford had some of his best performances of the season in games when he was blitzed on at least 25% of his dropbacks.

Stafford Games With 25%+ Blitz Rate, 2021

WeekBlitz RateEPA/DropbackComp%aDOTYPA
1346.2%0.2768.4%9.297.76
330.8%0.4671.1%9.459.03
129.6%0.7576.9%8.7712.35
528.9%0.2467.6%12.689.86
728.6%0.3468.3%9.348.15
828.1%0.3865.6%6.819.53
1427.3%0.3876.7%8.339.57
625.0%0.5578.6%7.718.96

On the other hand, it’s long been understood to not blitz Tom Brady. Defenses mostly held off, but Brady wasn’t as surgical against the blitz as he has been in the past. Brady was 15th in EPA per dropback against the blitz with 0.05, well below his 0.16 against a four-man rush (second).

Brady’s quick release has always been his counter to the blitz and that’s been his overall game plan since joining the Buccaneers. Brady’s time to throw is among the lowest in the league, but what has made that so effective is that it hasn’t been limited to short passes. But with a now-limited group of pass catchers, there might not be another option.

Last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, 81.1% of Brady’s overall pass attempts came within 2.5 seconds of the snap in an effort to diminish the impact of Philadelphia’s pass rush. It worked as the offense methodically moved down the field, but Brady’s aDOT was just 4.5 and he averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. But that might not work as well against a Los Angeles defense that can disguise some of their pre-snap looks and crowd the middle of the field.

The Bills built their defense around not having to blitz Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo finished the season around the league average in blitz rate, but they made sure to have a strong and deep defensive line to get pressure with four. Most defenses followed this lead and Mahomes was the least blitzed quarterback in the league. To make matters worse for those who did try to bring some heat, Mahomes led the league in EPA per dropback on blitzes that succeeded in creating pressure at 0.30. (Stafford and Garoppolo were the two other quarterbacks to have positive EPA when pressured against the blitz.)

Back in Week 5, the Bills did not blitz Mahomes on a single snap and still pressured the quarterback on a quarter of his dropbacks. Having extra resources in coverage, especially playing with two deep safeties, took away a lot of options for Kansas City in the passing game. Mahomes had -0.15 EPA per dropback.

This is the style the Bills imagined when they reworked their roster and even one blitz might be surprising.

Kansas City has been aggressive throughout the season and as the secondary has played better throughout the season, the Chiefs have gotten more comfortable sending extra defenders against opposing passers.

Josh Allen has been among the league’s most dangerous quarterbacks when extending plays so blitzing might seem counterintuitive, but it’s been a bit different when there are extra rushers.

Josh Allen Dropbacks Of 3+ Seconds, 2021

Pass RushersEPA/Dropback
4 or fewer0.21
5 or more-0.39

The Chiefs rank just 27th in pressure rate when rushing four this season. Back in Week 5, Kansas City blitzed Allen on 36.7% of his dropbacks and he went 5-of-10 for just 46 yards and -0.37 EPA per dropback. Allen, though, killed Kansas City on the non-blitzing dropbacks. It’s potentially more detrimental for the Chiefs to rush four and not get pressure than it is to take that same gamble with a blitz.

It’s possible the Chiefs ramp that up and try to get as much pressure as possible on Allen, a completely different game plan from how the Bills are expected to approach Mahomes.