Quarterback is unquestionably the most important position for a football team. Despite that, I am continually amazed at the complete ineptness of evaluating the quarterbacks in the NFL when it comes draft time. I won’t get into that here as that is for another article completely. Take this 2017 NFL Draft, which was mentioned as a weak quarterback class, but has produced three starting quarterbacks to differing levels of success. 

I’ve realized the NFL has a long way to go on figuring out how to pick a quarterback and teams still even struggle once those quarterbacks are in the league. Success or failure of a player is often not the quarterback as much as it is the offensive coordinator, the head coach, or the QB coach — though some quarterbacks sure do make it easier than others. With that in mind, let’s check in on the three quarterbacks of the 2017 class, who will be entering their third year in the NFL, to take a look at what they’ve done and what they still need to work on to get better.

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans 

2018 Ranks:
DVOA/DYAR: 11th/10th
DVOA no pressure/under pressure: 13th/5th
A/YA: 8th

Per Football Outsiders, Watson was pressured on 41 percent of his drop backs.  WOW! Now you see why the Texans drafted the way they did in April — with two offensive tackles in the first two rounds.  (That was not all of the problem, though.)

Houston’s pass protection was subpar in 2018, but you see, the quarterback can cause that pressure on his own sometimes and Watson, as much as I love watching him play, does bring a lot on himself. He looks down a lot at the defensive line instead of keeping eyes downfield. He also won’t always throw the ball on time, which makes me think his coaching is suspect on getting him to make the proper pre-snap read. It doesn’t help that I am not super high on his offense in general anyway. 

The good news is he was way better than average under pressure. You can look at that two ways. Either he has the promise of being a great player when the rate of pressure decreases or he has simply gotten used to being constantly under duress. Either way, if this amount does not change, he won’t be the quarterback of the future, he will be the quarterback of the IR. I think he takes another step in the right direction for no other reason than self-preservation will kick in for him.

Watson has a great ability to get his eyes back up when he is not in the pocket to make big plays; I don’t want that all taken away from him. But he needs to be more efficient in his times to look for those plays and choose them less. Some of that will fall on the offensive line and the plays called, though.  Houston simply can’t count on him to lead them to a Super Bowl in this offense and if little changes this year, they might not even make the playoffs this year.

 

Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs

2018 Ranks:
DVOA/DYAR: 1st/1st
DVOA no pressure/under pressure: 1st/1st
A/YA: 1st

Mahomes was pressured on 34% of his drop backs, which was still seventh-most among quarterbacks, but he is living proof the offense matters, the coaching matters, and the play called matters for everything to work perfectly. Now Mahomes can execute, he is quick, and can get out of trouble as well. He also benefits from masterful play calling and some greatness on the ends of those throws that help as well.

Last year Mahomes showed a tremendous amount of learning along the way, like learning to get the ball out quicker when he needed to instead of always relying on his feet. He made some really nice pre-snap decisions at times I saw him that I thought would not have been done by many. Maybe that’s because of too much confidence. Maybe it’s simply because he is not playing risk-averse. But either way, he is extremely good about putting the ball where it needs to be when under duress. He also puts the ball where the receivers can run after the catch, not on them or behind them.

If Mahomes gets better and the play-calling stays the same, of course, he will put up all kinds of points. I am very anxious to see him play without Tyreek Hill when defenses get to play him the same as they do everyone else.  He will slow down some as teams figure things out (see Patriots playoff game). I predict another AFC Champ game with him at the helm, but I think he is still another year away from a Super Bowl, though.

 

Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears 

2018 Ranks:
DVOA/DYAR: 15th/18th
DVOA no pressure/under pressure: 26th/3rd
A/YA: 19th

Statistically, Trubisky topped out in the middle of the pack, which gives a very different outlook on the 12 wins Chicago had last season. He played well under pressure, but was pressured at one of the lowest rates (25th) among all quarterbacks in the league. Head coach Matt Nagy is a creative play designer and caller, so that helped.  I still think the quarterback jury is out on Trubisky. I personally don’t think he is or ever will be a good enough quarterback to lead a team to the Super Bowl, but playoffs consistently is a possibility. I know he was third in QBR last season, but I think much of that was due to circumstances around him; he might have been in the 30’s if he played for the poor Bills or Jets right around where Josh Allen and Sam Darnold ranked. Thankfully, Trubisky does have better coaching around him, so he does have a chance to learn and grow. If he’s going to get better, he can hopefully understand what is required of the moment, how games are actually won (explosive plays when you have time instead of checkdowns), and also that a pass is better than a quarterback run (where most of his QBR value came last season).