Warren Sharp’s new book, ‘2020 Sharp Football Preview,’ is now available — with over 350 pages of stats, analysis, and graphics breaking down what we learned from the 2019 NFL season and what we might see in 2020.
To celebrate the book release, we’ll be sharing some of the most interesting statistical narratives from each team chapter and today we’ll hit the Green Bay Packers.
STRONG TURN-AROUNDS WILL LET YOU DOWN
In the last 30 years, 52 teams improved by 6+ wins from one year to the next.
Only 18 of those 52 teams improved to record at least 12 wins, like the Packers (from 6-10 to 13-3 last year).Of those 18 teams:
Zero won the same number or more games the following year
All lost at least two more games the following year
13 lost at least four more games the following year
On average, these 18 teams lost 5.9 more games the following year.
2018 PACKERS (6-10) VS 2019 PACKERS (13-3):
● The 2018 Packers won more games by over 14 points than they lost.
● The 2019 Packers lost more games by over 14 points than they won.
● The 2018 Packers played in 10 games decided by one score.
● The 2019 Packers played in 10 games decided by one score.
● The 2018 Packers won 3 of those 10 games.
● The 2019 Packers won 9 of those 10 games.
THE 2018 PACKERS OFFENSE WAS BETTER THAN 2019’S OFFENSE
In 2019, the Packers passed on just 53% of early downs when the game was within one score (15th in the NFL).
Because of the more conservative nature of both the pass rate and of the passing attack in general, the Packers faced an average of 7.6 yards to go on third downs in one-score games, ranking fourth-worst in the NFL. In 2018, the Packers passed on 61% of early downs when the game was within one score (fourth-most in the NFL).
With a more aggressive early-down offensive approach, the Packers offense faced third and an average of only 6.9 yards to go in one-score games, which ranked 14th in the NFL. Not only was the 2018 offense putting the Packers in a better position to convert when on third down than the 2019 Packers, but the 2018 Packers were also better at bypassing third downs completely. In 2018, the Packers ranked 13th in EDSR whereas the 2019 Packers ranked 17th.
ATTEMPTS FACED BY THE 2019 PACKERS DEFENSE:
Att – QB (Interceptions thrown)
94 – Mitchell Trubisky (3)
59 – Kirk Cousins (3)
38 – Kyle Allen (1)
37 – Daniel Jones (3)
35 – Matt Moore
32 – Matthew Stafford
28 – Joe Flacco
28 – Derek Carr (1)
27 – Carson Wentz
27 – Philip Rivers
27 – Dak Prescott (3)
26 – Dwayne Haskins (1)
26 – David Blough (1)
19 – Jimmy Garoppolo
3 – Mike Glennon
The list is littered with backups, rookies, undrafted players, and mediocre quarterbacks.
DIVISION REMATCH STRUGGLES
Over the last two years in divisional rematches:
Meeting one: 7.5 YPA, 49% success, 102 rating, 13:2 TD:INT, 22 ppg (4-1-1 record)
Meeting two: 5.8 YPA, 45% success, 70 rating, 4:4 TD:INT, 17 ppg (3-3 record)
Aaron Rodgers attempted 49 RPOs in 2019 and these recorded a 49% success rate (-1.4 EPA), 4.1 YPA, and an 84 rating.
In 2018 he attempted half that number (24 attempts) but recorded a 63% success rate (3.1 EPA), 5.5 YPA, and a 103 rating on RPOs.
No one in the NFL threw more RPOs than Rodgers did in 2019. Of all players with at least 20 RPO attempts, Rodgers’s success rate was the worst in the NFL. In 2018 he threw the fourth-most RPOs but recorded the second-highest RPO success for any quarterback.
WHEN THE WEATHER TURNS, HOME SWEET HOME IS EVEN SWEETER
In the last 30 years (and still strong of late), the Packers are 25-6 (81%) after week 10 of the season when hosting teams that play in domes. But Green Bay is just 16-13 (55%) over that same span when traveling on the road to play in those domes. In 2020 they host no dome teams late in the season but travel to two dome teams (Colts and Lions).
Purchase Warren Sharp’s new book, “2020 Football Preview,’ now available for immediate download.
This book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal in mind: to get you prepared for the 2020 season by delivering the smartest information in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.