Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem
If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.
Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.
On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.
Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.
On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:
#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)
How about 20+ yards downfield?
Murray ranks:
#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)
How about 15+ yards downfield?
Murray ranks:
#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)
We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.
I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:
#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)
These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.
There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.
Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.
As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.
Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History
He’s not getting better.
He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.
Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.
His injury record is extensive:
2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games
The Indoor/Outdoor Factor: Murray's Hidden Weakness
And then there’s the conflating factor in his inefficiency throwing downfield:
Murray has played only 12 of 41 games (29%) outdoors since 2022.
Due to quirks about when in the season he has been injured, 23 of the 41 games he has played have been at home.
He has played only 18 road games to 23 home games, and 6 of the 18 road games have been in domes.
Ranking QBs since 2022 just in outdoor games, let’s again run through the exercise on passing downfield.
On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:
#47 of 47 in completion rate (13%)
#46 of 47 in EPA/attempt (-0.49)
#47 of 47 in Y/A (4.1)
On 20+ yard passes, Murray ranks:
#38 of 43 in completion rate (30%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (-0.35)
#42 of 43 in Y/A (7.7)
On 15+ yard passes, Murray ranks:
#35 of 40 in completion rate (38%)
#36 of 40 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#40 of 40 in Y/A (8.9)
Not only are these numbers throwing downfield bad, but Murray also hasn’t even played in many outdoor games with harsh climates.
Since 2022, out of 41 total games played, Murray has played JUST ONE GAME with a kickoff temperature less than 45 degrees (loss in Carolina on 12/22/24).
Since 2022, out of 41 total games played, Murray has played JUST ONE GAME with winds of 15 mph or more (loss in Buffalo on 9/8/24).
Since 2022, out of 41 total games played, Murray has played JUST ONE GAME with any form of precipitation at all (loss in Green Bay on 10/13/24).
