Warren Sharp’s new book, ‘2020 Sharp Football Preview,’ is now available — with over 350 pages of stats, analysis, and graphics breaking down what we learned from the 2019 NFL season and what we might see in 2020.
To celebrate the book release, we’ll be sharing some of the most interesting statistical narratives from each team chapter and today we’ll hit the New York Giants.
Saquon Barkley’s first down runs in the first 3 quarters vs…
Eight+ man boxes:
Barkley: 2.7 YPC, 27% success, -0.11 EPA/att
NFL avg: 3.9 YPC, 41% success, -0.08 EPA/att
Barkley: 3.3 YPC, 44% success, -0.15 EPA/att
NFL avg: 4.7 YPC, 47% success, -0.02 EPA/att
Barkley: 5.9 YPC, 50% success, 0.13 EPA/att
NFL avg: 4.8 YPC, 47% success, 0.02 EPA/att
Barkley worst in the NFL in first down runs when not in 11 personnel
Of 41 rushers with at least 25 attempts from any personnel grouping BUT 11 personnel, Barkley ranked as follows on his 43 attempts:
• 41st in YPC (2.5 YPC)
• 39th in success rate (35% success)
• 37th in EPA/att (-0.22 EPA/att)
What happened to Evan Engram?
Evan Engram went from delivering 0.26 EPA/att (better than Odell Beckham) and 9.0 YPA in 2018 to just 6.8 YPA, a 41% success rate, and 0.07 EPA/att. Of any receiver targeted at least 30 times, it was the worst on the Giants.
Play-action was essential…
– With P/A: 9.0 YPA, 59% success, 0.20 EPA/att
– W/O P/A: 6.0 YPA, 43% success, -0.14 EPA/att
… but not when Daniel Jones had to turn his back to the defense
– Under center P/A: 6.9 YPA, 50% success, -0.11 EPA/att (55 att)
– Shotgun P/A: 10.9 YPA, 67% success, 0.48 EPA/att, (60 att)*on early downs quarters 1-3
Where Jones needs growth
Daniel Jones rated below average in air yards and completed air yards, meaning he was throwing and completing passes closer to the line of scrimmage than league average. And yet despite throwing more conservatively than average, Jones ranked 33rd of 39 QBs in expected completion percentage, meaning he was throwing the ball far too often into tight coverage.
That result is replicated in that Jones ranked 3rd of 39 QBs in aggressiveness, which measures the number of passing attempts that are into tight coverage. Passing short but still into extremely tight coverage is a recipe for disaster and shows Jones has a way to go with progressions and finding open receivers. He was the only QB in the NFL last year ranking top-10 in aggressiveness and bottom-10 in completed air yards.
Purchase Warren Sharp’s new book, “2020 Football Preview,’ now available for immediate download.
This book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal in mind: to get you prepared for the 2020 season by delivering the smartest information in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.