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  • Over the last three years, drives that had just one play of 15+ yards saw points scored at a 52% rate.
  • In the first quarter of their games this preseason, the Steelers have generated explosive plays on 18% of snaps, #2 highest rate in the NFL.
  • Chicago scored points at the #9 highest rate last season (70%) when a drive had one explosive play. But they gained those explosive plays at the NFL’s tenth-lowest rate.

Average NFL starting field position is the 28.6-yard line. It’s been between a team’s own 28 and 29-yard line for over half a decade. So right inside a team’s own 30-yard line.

So, let’s start there. Any drive that begins inside a team’s own 30-yard line.

If that drive has zero explosive plays (defined as a play of 15+ yards):

  • 6.3% of drives score points of any kind
  • 4.5% of drives reach the red zone
  • 2.0% of drives score a touchdown

But if that drive had exactly one play of 15+ yards:

  • 50% of drives score points of any kind
  • 36% of drives reach the red zone
  • 25% of drives score a touchdown

These drives were over 10 times more likely to score a touchdown with just one play of 15+ yards.

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Explosive Plays Are More Important Than Ever

Over the last three years, drives that had just one play of 15+ yards saw points scored at a 52% rate.

This is substantially higher than the 48% rate in the prior five years (2015-2019).

In fact, look at the score rates when a drive has one play of 15+ yards in five-year increments:

  • 2000-2004: 39%
  • 2005-2009: 41%
  • 2010-2014: 42%
  • 2015-2019: 48%
  • 2020-2022: 52%

NFL Scoring Rates Over the Last Three Seasons:

  • Drives with zero explosive plays: 6.4% score rate
  • Drives with one explosive play: 52% score rate
  • Drives with two or more explosive plays: 83% score rate

Explosive plays, even just one per drive, have become more important drivers to scoring than they once were. And we know there isn’t a more important factor in wins than scoring points.

Efficiency on offense is vital, and bypassing third downs is one of the key elements toward scoring and winning games.

There doesn’t need to be a distinction between efficiency and explosion, but sometimes chasing a bigger play results in a reduction in efficiency.

But the results show that even a play of 15 yards is massive, we don’t need to hunt 30- to 40-yard-deep passes in order to make a huge difference in point production.

Let’s look at teams who changed their fortunes last season in part thanks to explosive plays.

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NFL Offenses That Were More Explosive in 2022

Many teams have used explosive plays to turn their fortunes around in just one year.

Let’s look at last season.

The Miami Dolphins ranked #27 in explosive play rate (% of plays that gained 15+ yards) in 2021. But they increased from 8.8% to 13.4% (+4.6%) in 2022.

Their 13.4% rate ranked #2 in the NFL, and it pushed them to a solid record when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy.

Speaking of which, when Tua was healthy, the Dolphins’ explosive play rate in 2022 was 14.9%, which was the largest for any team since the 2018 Chiefs (16.3%).

Miami’s year-over-year 4.6 percentage point increase was the NFL’s largest increase. The Chiefs were second-largest at +3.3%, and that was despite Tyreek Hill’s absence.

Another team that turned their fortunes around in part due to explosive plays was the Jaguars.

Jacksonville won only three games in 2021 and had the NFL’s #30 most explosive offense.

In 2022, Jacksonville’s offense improved to #7 in explosive play rate, and they won nine games and made the playoffs. Being more explosive helped the team improve from #32 in points scored in 2021 to #10 in 2022.

The Dolphins, Chiefs, and Jaguars were the top three teams in year-over-year improvement in explosive play rate, and all three made the playoffs.

NFL Offenses That Were Less Explosive in 2022

It works the other way, as well.

Let’s look at the three teams that fell off the most in explosive play rate.

The Buccaneers ranked #2 in explosive play rate in 2021 as they scored the #2 most points and won 13 games. But last year, they dropped to #31 in explosive play rate (a decline of 4.4 percentage points, largest in the NFL).

Being less explosive cost them dearly as they ranked #25 in points scored and finished with a losing record on the season.

The Rams had the second-largest dropoff in explosive play rate last year.

They were the #3 most explosive offense in 2021 and used that explosive ability to rank #7 in points scored. But last year, they dropped to #25 in explosive play rate.

That drop resulted in a large dropoff in scoring (#27) and as a result, they went 5-12 after going 12-5 in 2021.

The third-largest dropoff in explosive play rate belonged to the Cardinals. They dropped from #13 to #30. And they went from 11-6 and a playoff appearance to 4-13 last year.

Regular season kickoff is finally right around the corner, and Warren Sharp has been prepping all offseason to dish out his trademark analytics-based picks for what should be yet another winning season. But if you’re not ready for a full-season commitment to our All-Access package or just want to get a taste of what Warren has to offer, check out our weekly and monthly options. Click here to learn more!

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Eight NFL Offenses That Could Be More Explosive in 2023

Steelers

The Steelers ranked #31 in explosive play rate in Ben Roethlisberger’s last season, as everything was short and underneath. Last year, due to a much higher run rate coupled with drops and a rookie quarterback’s growing pains, the Steelers ranked #32 in explosive play rate.

I predict a much higher explosive play rate in 2023. Pittsburgh has seemingly emphasized it in the preseason.

Last year, Pittsburgh scored just two touchdowns from outside the red zone, the lowest total in the NFL.

In the first quarter of their games this preseason, the Steelers have generated explosive plays on 18% of snaps, #2 highest rate in the NFL.

There is no chance that rate continues into the regular season, but they are pushing the ball deeper with Kenny Pickett and appear to be hunting chunk plays.

Last year, when the Steelers had zero explosive plays on a drive, they scored points of any kind at an 18% rate.

But when they had just one explosive play, they scored at a 62% rate.

If they can carry over some of the preseason focus on explosion into the regular season this year, they will score more points and certainly win more games.

Titans

Tennessee was the most sensitive team to explosive plays last season.

When they didn’t have a single explosive play, they scored points on only 6.7% of their drives, dead last in the NFL. When they had just one play of 15+ yards, they scored on 64.3% of their drives, nearly 10 times more frequently.

The problem for the Titans is their offense has ranked #29 in 2022 and #29 in 2021 in explosive play rate over the last two seasons.

There are two reasons for optimism.

First, the team changed out offensive coordinators. Gone is Todd Downing, their OC for the last two seasons. Under Downing, Tennessee rammed the ball into the line of scrimmage on first down at the highest rate in the NFL.

Will new OC Tim Kelly be any different? Or is this an edict handed down from HC Mike Vrabel? We soon will see, but Titans fans can hope the team might be more creative offensively on early downs with a new playcaller.

Secondly, the team drafted RB Tyjae Spears, and he’s been a joy to watch in Tennessee. He led all 54 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per rush and that’s despite facing loaded boxes on the majority of his runs:

Realistically, the Titans don’t have many weapons to envision a huge leap forward into the top 10 of explosive offenses. But a move from #29 to even slightly above NFL average could help propel the team to a few more wins than expected.

Commanders

Like the Titans, a new playcaller in DC could help Washington get more explosive, but only if Ron Rivera allows the offense to lean into the pass.

Last season, Washington’s early down pass rate exceeded 60% in every single game (quarters 1-3) in the first three weeks of the season.

After that point, something happened that caused the team to drop WAY down. That something likely was some influence over Scott Turner, whose pass rate was never as low as it was in DC after Week 3:

Washington’s 2022 early down pass rate in quarters 1-3:

Wk1: 62%
Wk2: 69%
Wk3: 60%
————–
Wk4: 41%
Wk5: 59%
Wk6: 44%
Wk7: 36%
Wk8: 43%
Wk9: 51%
W10: 36%
W11: 44%
W12: 33%
W13: 41%
W15: 47%
W16: 26%
W17: 21%
W18: 33%

Overall, the Commanders ranked #25 in explosive play rate last season.

New starting QB Sam Howell has been talked up by Rivera, but how much trust will he be given after a rough outing or too much pressure from the offensive line?

New OC Eric Bieniemy was in Kansas City with a team that generated league-leading explosive play rates despite not throwing deep. If he brings some of those concepts to DC, we could see a jump from the Commanders.

Saints

In the last two years, the Saints have ranked #28 and #25 in explosive play rate.

But they’ve had more luck generating explosive plays this preseason and have Derek Carr, who may provide more confidence for their OC to call plays that might generate big gains more frequently.

Carr’s 2022 Raiders delivered an above-average explosive play rate (#12) after ranking #5 in 2021. Both those marks are substantially better than the Saints over the last two years.

The Carr to Chris Olave connection could be one to watch, but Rashid Shaheed is another burner that provides a ton of explosion.

Regular season kickoff is finally right around the corner, and Warren Sharp has been prepping all offseason to dish out his trademark analytics-based picks for what should be yet another winning season. But if you’re not ready for a full-season commitment to our All-Access package or just want to get a taste of what Warren has to offer, check out our weekly and monthly options. Click here to learn more!

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Bears

Chicago scored points at the #9 highest rate last season (70%) when a drive had one explosive play. But they gained those explosive plays at the NFL’s tenth-lowest rate. And when not generating an explosive play on a drive, they scored points on a below-average 11.7% of drives.

Chicago added the extremely explosive D.J. Moore, who excels on big receptions as well as yardage after the catch.

But it will take development from Justin Fields, the offensive line, and the play designs to get enough explosion out of this offense.

The three most explosive Bears games from 2022?

  • 12.9% explosive play rate in a WIN vs. the Texans
  • 12.9% explosive play rate in a WIN vs. the Patriots
  • 16.0% explosive play rate in a LOSS vs. the Packers (Week 13) [Bears led 19-10 entering the 4th quarter]

Explosive plays mattered last year for the Bears, and if they can generate more, they’ll generate way more wins as well.

Chargers

The Chargers ranked #22 in explosive play rate last season, so they likely can’t make as large a leap as some of the other teams on this list.

However, a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore could help make a positive difference.

Last year, the Dallas Cowboys generated an explosive play on 10.8% of plays when Dak Prescott was on the field, which ranked #12.

Herbert’s target depth last year ranked #47 of 47 QBs and is destined to improve in 2023:

Ravens

Another team quite similar to the Chargers is the Ravens. They both have the same quarterback but new hope thanks to a new OC.

For the Ravens, it’s Todd Monken arriving in time to bring hope of more explosion. The team is using 11 personnel to spread the field and is passing the ball more.

I would expect more opportunities for explosive Lamar Jackson runs, RB runs, and WR receptions with newly drafted Zay Flowers and newly acquired Odell Beckham Jr.

With Jackson on the field last year, the Ravens generated explosive plays of 15+ yards on 11.4% of snaps, which was tied for #7 in the NFL.

But without Jackson, the Ravens generated explosives on just 7.8% of snaps (#31).

Baltimore’s offense absolutely can be top five in explosive play rate this season as long as Jackson is healthy.

Falcons

Some of the teams on this list were terrible in explosive play rate last year, like the Steelers, Titans, and Commanders. Others were not terrible but were slightly below average, like the Chargers and Ravens.

But you might be surprised to hear the Falcons were more explosive than any of these teams. Last year they generated explosive gains on 10.4% of snaps, which was #17 in the NFL.

But I still think this team could be primed for a leap in 2023. The first reason is the fact that Marcus Mariota is no longer in town.

Mariota threw an inaccurate pass on 17.7% of his attempts last season, second worst to only Zach Wilson.

On passes of 15 air yards or more, Mariota had a 37.3% inaccuracy rate, the worst in the NFL. On passes of 20+ air yards, Mariota completed just 13 of 53 passes (24.5% completion rate, the worst in the NFL), and half of his incompletions were because he was inaccurate (the worst rate in the NFL).

In addition, the Falcons now have another year under all their young skill players and drafted the extremely explosive Bijan Robinson out of Texas.

Although Atlanta ranked league-average in explosive play rate last year, they scored only four touchdowns from outside the red zone, third-lowest in the NFL (Colts, Steelers). I expect more explosive TDs in 2023 and a more explosive passing game.

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