Sean Payton rumors are an annual offseason tradition. Each year, it’s floated that Payton may be looking to move on from the New Orleans Saints. The trade rumors start and he’s linked to the Dallas Cowboys. Then nothing happens and Payton continues as the coach of the Saints.
But that time has now finally come. From multiple reports, Payton is stepping down as head coach in New Orleans. This doesn’t appear to be a full retirement and there is still the potential he returns to coaching somewhere in the future.
Payton has been one of the best coaches in the league since he took over the Saints in 2006. He made the playoffs in nine of his 15 seasons as head coach with a Super Bowl win in 2009. Maybe just as impressive as the playoff appearances was putting together an offense good enough for three straight runs of a 7-9 record when the defense ranked 27th, 32nd, and 28th in DVOA before the Saints went four straight years as No. 1 or No. 2 overall in DVOA.
The coaching future of Payton will certainly spark intrigue. Even if he returns after a year away from coaching, he’ll still be under contract with the Saints through 2024, which means a team that wants to hire Payton before then would still need to give New Orleans some kind of compensation.
We’ll get to Payton’s future when the time comes, but now it’s interesting to look at the future of the Saints without their long-time coach.
It’s possible nothing really changes for New Orleans, at least structurally. If the Saints wanted, there are a ton of in-house options that could slide right in to replace Payton. Dennis Allen has overseen the rise of a good defense and has been considered a head coach candidate elsewhere and could be a natural fit to get promoted.
The Saints also have potential coordinators on staff. Kris Richard was the Saints’ secondary coach this past season and could reclaim a title he had with the Seattle Seahawks from 2015-2017. Pete Carmichael is the longest-tenured coordinator in the NFL and has been Payton’s right-hand man on offense since both came to the Saints. Should Carmichael also move on, former Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator and Saints assistant Joe Brady is available.
Aaron Glenn, who spent his final playing season with the Saints, coached the New Orleans defensive backs from 2016-2020, and spent this past season as the defensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions has also been mentioned as a head coaching candidate.
What might be more intriguing is the immediate impact on the Saints roster and where this franchise believes it is and where it should go.
New Orleans is currently around $74 million over the 2022 cap, according to Over The Cap. But as has been the case for this franchise over the past few seasons, that’s a feature, not a bug. The Saints aren’t in some inescapable cap hell. If they want, they can continue to restructure many of the big contracts on the books, get under the cap for the upcoming year, and continue to push that money into the future.
But the Saints could also use this as an opportunity to break that cycle. Part of the equation of kicking the salary can down the road came from having Drew Brees at quarterback and Payton as the head coach. Getting the most out of that duo was the key component to that roster building strategy. Brees’s retirement left $11.5 million in dead money on the 2021 cap and will have the same hit for 2022. That already limited option in New Orleans for starting anew.
The other problem there is that so many of those restructures would make it difficult for the Saints to cut bait this coming offseason. Take Michael Thomas, who could be a prime candidate to move. Should the Saints cut or trade Thomas before June 1, they would take a $22 million dead cap hit and save just $2 million. Should they wait until after June 1, the Saints could save $15.8 million in 2022 but would take on an $8.9 million deal cap hit in 2022 and $13.8 million in 2023. That would also leave the Saints without a WR1, which was clearly a problem with Thomas out this past season.
Across the rest of the roster, the Saints have a number of veterans that would either be difficult to move or would not return much draft capital because of the money left on the contracts.
Marshon Lattimore, 25, might be the best movable piece and he just signed an extension in September. A huge $15 million roster bonus in 2022 was put in place ready-made for a restructure so that can be spread out over future years, but the Saints could also free up $14 million on the cap and get back the best return they would receive for any player on the roster.
We’ve seen rebuilding teams in the past load up on dead cap for a season in order to clear the books in the future, but given the Saints need to clear money before any of that could happen, which would likely involve restructuring more contracts, it would be increasingly difficult for New Orleans to then accelerate those dead cap charges.
Stripping the roster down could be a multiple-season process should the Saints want to go that way.
With the path forward likely remaining as the status quo on the accounting side, the Saints will have a quarterback question to answer. Taysom Hill was always a Payton project and his contract, though not as big as the wildly reported numbers, is still a detriment on the roster.
Moving on from Hill would cost $19 million against a $12.325 million cap hit, meaning the Saints would lose over $6.6 million in cap space by cutting or trading him before June 1. A post-Junes 1 cut or trade would net the Saints a complete wash in cap space, so Hill will be on the 2022 roster.
The best quarterback on the roster in 2021 was Jameis Winston, who was signed to just a one-year deal. Even that was somewhat costly for 2022. His one-year contract has void years, which will put $3 million on the 2022 cap, which was more than the $2.5 million cap hit he had for actually playing in 2021.
Winston was far and away the best option for the Saints as he significantly outperformed the other quarterbacks.
New Orleans Saints Quarterbacks, 2021
*data per TruMedia
| Player | EPA/Dropback | Dropbacks | Comp% | aDOT | YPA | PA% | Blitz Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 0.13 | 189 | 59.0% | 8.32 | 7.27 | 25.5% | 33.3% |
| Trevor Siemian | -0.04 | 200 | 57.4% | 7.10 | 6.14 | 19.7% | 21.0% |
| Taysom Hill | -0.05 | 157 | 58.2% | 7.33 | 7.30 | 29.1% | 34.4% |
| Ian Book | -0.91 | 30 | 60.0% | 3.80 | 6.75 | 35.0% | 43.3% |
If the Saints are going to keep chugging along with their current roster, Winston would make sense as a quarterback that has already proven he can play well in this situation. He was also without Michael Thomas, which could be an additional benefit. Of course, part of Winston’s rebound and a reason he was in New Orleans was tied to Payton. The question of the next head coach and who is in control of the offense will play a huge role in the next quarterback.
Looking at the draft, the prospects in first-round consideration do not appear to be an overly strong group. Some may have been considered projects worthy of a Payton apprenticeship, but without him in charge, what New Orleans looks for in a quarterback could be completely altered. Again, the next coaching staff and its philosophy will be the biggest factor.
There is also the veteran quarterback market, but big names like Russell Wilson were linked to New Orleans because of Payton and the offensive system. It doesn’t make a ton of sense for the Saints to look in the mid-tier section and follow the Sam Darnold–Carson Wentz prayers that other teams tried last offseason.
The Saints aren’t stuck, but they are at a crossroads with two defined paths. New Orleans can continue in the image of Payton and get all they can out of this still-talented veteran roster and wait until eventual retirements force the franchise to face their cap management or use this as an opportunity to completely reset and jumpstart the next era of Saints football.
