How the Chiefs Can Win Super Bowl 59: 3 Keys to Success

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 59 Report, a 67-page analysis of the Chiefs vs. Eagles that looks at the big game from every angle. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $100 off using promo code SHARP100.

Contents

1 The Importance of Early Down Success Rate
2 Three Keys to Chiefs Winning Super Bowl 59
3 Red Zone Success
4 Third Down Success
5 Short Passing Game

The Importance of Early Down Success Rate

If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you know EDSR stands for Early Down Success Rate.

It's an efficiency metric I created that isn’t simply success rate of first and second downs, but it does look at efficiency on the early downs.

What you may remember from prior Super Bowl writeups is that it’s the single MOST CORRELATED STATISTIC TO WINNING IN THE POSTSEASON that exists over the last 10 years.

The first thing we do is strip out the huge favorites/dogs and stipulate that games must be lined within 7 points of pick.

That gives a more level playing field to evaluate the teams, and that’s what we have in this game.

Next, teams with a 2+ turnover edge cover 81% of their postseason games, so to determine the efficiency of a stat, it’s best to strip them out.

Let's only focus on games where one team doesn't have a 2+ turnover advantage.

Teams with the better EDSR in these games have covered 74% of their games in the postseason since 2007 (46-16 ATS).

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. Eagles covered in our Super Bowl 59 Hub.

Chiefs Early Down Success Rate:

Offensively, the Chiefs ranked 13th.

Defensively, the Chiefs ranked 4th.

Since Week 10:

The Chiefs offense ranks #22 and has played 4 top-10 defenses in EDSR
- #1 Chargers
- #4 Browns
- #6 Broncos (twice)
The Chiefs defense ranks #6 and has played 2 top-10 offenses in EDSR
- #2 Bills (twice)

Eagles Early Down Success Rate:

Offensively, the Eagles ranked 16th.

Defensively, the Eagles ranked 8th.

Since Week 10:

The Eagles offense ranks #21 and has played 1 top-10 defense in EDSR
- #1 Ravens
The Eagles defense ranks #2 and has played 7 top-10 offenses in EDSR
- #3 Rams (twice)
- #5 Ravens
- #6 Commanders (3 times)
- #8 Packers

Click here for the Eagles' three keys to winning Super Bowl 59

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Three Keys to Chiefs Winning Super Bowl 59

Red Zone Success
Third Down Success
Short Passing Game

Red Zone Success

While the Chiefs offense has been the #2 best in the NFL this year at driving the ball into the red zone, their biggest trouble has been scoring when there.

Their red zone TD rate is only 53.8%, an all-time low for the Chiefs under Andy Reid.

I expected the Chiefs would be able to drive the ball on the Bills in the AFC Championship game and then take those drives and turn them into touchdowns rather than field goals.

The Bills defense ranked #30 in rate of drives allowed into the red zone and #16 in red zone TD rate.

The Eagles defense, on the other hand, ranks #7 in rate of drives allowed into the red zone and #5 in red zone TD rate.

Let’s take a look back at Reid and Patrick Mahomes vs. Vic Fangio with the Broncos and then with the Dolphins.

And we’ll compare red zone efficiency vs. all other Chiefs games during those seasons.

In the 6 games between 2019-2021 vs. the Broncos:

27.3% non-red zone TD rate (TD scored before reaching the red zone)
36.7% of drives reached the red zone
31.8% red zone TD rate
38.5% goal-to-go TD rate

From 2019-2021 in games vs. all other teams:

29.8% non-red zone TD rate
35.6% of drives reached the red zone
62.6% red zone TD rate
80.7% goal-to-go TD rate

Yes, Reid and Mahomes were 6-0 vs. Fangio’s Broncos, but they didn’t score explosive TDs from outside the red zone as often.

And though they made their way into the red zone slightly more often, they scored touchdowns at a MUCH lower rate.

It’s astonishing to see how much worse the Chiefs were at scoring TDs in the red zone vs. Fangio (31.8%) compared to all other teams (62.6%).

And the goal-to-go rates were even more eye opening: 38.5% vs. Fangio, 80.7% vs. everyone else.

Combining all 8 games vs. Fangio from 2019-2021 and 2023, vs. all other defenses the Chiefs played in those same 4 seasons, we see the same trends — get the full numbers in Warren's Super Bowl 59 Report.

Vic Fangio's 2024 Red Zone Defense

Having studied Fangio’s defenses a lot during the summer in preparation for understanding what to expect from the 2024 Eagles, I knew there was a good chance his red zone defense would struggle early in the season.

The staple of Fangio’s defenses is to force you to drive efficiently all the way to the red zone, and if you can make it that far, stuff you before you score a touchdown.

Fangio’s red zone defenses are so formidable that when I consulted for a specific team, we strategized play calls to score touchdowns from just OUTSIDE red zone territory by calling several more explosive shots before entering the red zone to try and score in the condensed space.

From Weeks 1-14, Fangio’s defense allowed only 28.7% of drives to reach the red zone (#11) and allowed a 48.7% red zone TD rate when those drives entered the red zone (#6).

Since Week 15 and including the playoffs, Fangio’s defense dropped those numbers to:

25.7% of drives reach the red zone (#10)
47.4% red zone TD % (#5)

This year Fangio’s defense faced a league-average schedule of opposing offenses.

However, including the playoffs, they played an NFL-high nine games vs. top-10 offenses in % of drives to reach the red zone.

Teams like the Ravens, Bucs, Rams (x2), Packers (x2), Commanders (x3).

This is relevant considering the Chiefs are one of these top-10 offenses as well.

And looking ONLY at games vs. top-10 red zone drive offenses, Fangio’s defense ranked:

#10 in % of drives to reach the red zone (35%)
#6 in red zone TD rate (51%)

Overall, in all games for the Eagles this year, their defense ranked:

#7 in % of drives to reach the red zone (27%)
#5 in red zone TD rate (50%)

Reid & Mahomes Against Fangio

In the 8 games vs. Fangio’s defenses, the Chiefs scored 21 touchdowns.

The distribution:

11 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs (15 total offensive TDs), 3 fumble return TDs, 2 interception return TDs, 1 kick return TD

Only 4-of-8 games featured 2 passing TDs.

0 games featured more than 2 passing TDs.

The other 4 games featured 0 or 1 passing TDs.

Because Fangio’s red zone scoring defense is so elite, the Chiefs ended up settling for many FGs.

In these 8 games, KC’s special teams saw 23 FGs attempted, 23 FGs made:

7-of-8 games featured 2+ FGs
6-of-8 games featured 3+ FGs
2-of-8 games featured 4+ FGs

Of those 23 FGs, only 4 were from 40+ yards and only 2 were from 50+ yards.

The Chiefs ended up kicking 10 FGs from inside the 10-yard line and an additional 6 FGs from the 11-yard to 20-yard line.

That’s 16 red zone FGs!

So the bottom line vs. Fangio over 8 games:

The Chiefs offense scored 15 TDs and settled for 23 FGs.

In all other games NOT against Fangio during those years, the Chiefs offense scored 216 TDs and settled for 113 FGs.

Third Down Success

On 3rd down passes this year, the Eagles blitz at the NFL’s #30 rate.

They blitz on only 19% of QB dropbacks (average = 29%).

They won’t blitz Mahomes much.

So, they’ll play a lot of coverage.

The type of coverage?

They play man at the NFL’s #29 rate.

They won’t play man much.

So, they’ll play a lot of zone.

The type of zone?

They play the #1 highest rate of Cover-6 (24%) and the #1 highest rate of quarters (21%) on all 3rd downs.

They play the NFL’s #32 rate of Cover-2 (0.7%) and play no 2-man on 3rd down.

In other words, the Eagles will be spamming 3rd down passes with no-blitz Cover-6 and Cover-4 (quarters).

How is Patrick Mahomes on 3rd down?

Well that all depends.

If he’s blitzed, he’s INCREDIBLE:

#1 success rate (54%)
#3 first down rate (50%)
#9 EPA/att (+0.15)

If he’s not blitzed, it ALL DEPENDS ON COVERAGE.

When he does NOT face what Fangio employs (Cover-4 and Cover-6) he’s INCREDIBLE:

#1 first down rate (50%)
#2 EPA/att (+0.33)
#3 success rate (51%)

HOWEVER…

When Mahomes faces the coverage Fangio employs (Cover-4 and Cover-6) he’s TERRIBLE:

#42 first down rate (13%)
#34 EPA/att (-0.36)
#33 success rate (31%)

And that’s out of 43 qualifying QBs this year.

Mahomes ranks #42 of 43 in 1st down rate on 3rd down (13%) vs. Cover-6/quarters when not blitzed…

But he ranks #1 in 1st down rate on 3rd down (50%) vs. all other coverages.

It doesn’t get more stark than that.

This isn’t just a 2024 issue for Mahomes.

He was also similarly much worse vs. Cover-6/quarters without a blitz in 2023 (-0.46 EPA/att for #32, along with a 33% 1st down rate).

If we combine 2024 and 2023 vs. the 3rd down defense Fangio employs, Mahomes delivers:

-0.43 EPA/att (#47)
26% 1st down rate (#40)

Fangio’s 3rd down defense historically has caused problems for Mahomes as well.

Rewind back to those 8 games Mahomes played vs. Fangio from 2019-2023.

On 3rd down passes vs:

Fangio: 34% first down rate, -0.14 EPA/att, 56% comp, 13% sack rate
Everyone else: 46% first down rate, +0.23 EPA/att, 64% comp, 6% sack rate

Short Passing Game

At one point in time, the Chiefs used to aggressively hunt downfield, throwing 15+ and 20+ yards at some of the highest rates in the NFL.

But that time is long gone.

Out of 192 team seasons since 2019, the 2024 Chiefs ranked #189 in rate of passes thrown 15+ air yards (15%).

Contrarily, they ranked #2 of 192 in rate of passes thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage (31%).

In terms of 2024 alone, they rank #32 of 32 in the rate of passes thrown 15+ yards downfield while ranking #1 of 32 in the rate of passes thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage.

If you look at air yardage, the Chiefs' average this year was 6.3 air yards per attempt, tied for the lowest in the NFL.

The Chiefs are not looking to strike downfield.

Yet, the Fangio defense is constructed to prevent these types of plays.

In addition to 76% of their passes being thrown no more than 10 yards downfield (most in the NFL) they also throw extremely infrequently outside the numbers, instead attacking nearly 50% between the numbers.

Mahomes early down air yardage was #31 in the NFL (5.6 yards) and is 5.8 in the playoffs.

Patrick Mahomes is Throwing Quicker

On early downs in the playoffs, Mahomes is averaging 2.3 seconds to throw, the fastest of any of the 14 QBs in the postseason this year.

In addition, he threw nearly 47% of his attempts within 2 seconds (the highest rate of any QB) and 61% of his attempts were within 2.5 seconds (the highest of any QB).

This is even faster than the regular season, where the Chiefs offense ranked (1-32):

#5 fastest time to throw (2.54 seconds) ► now down to 2.3 seconds in the playoffs
#4 highest % of throws within 2 seconds (34%) ► now up to 47%
#7 highest % of throws within 2.5 seconds (55%) ► now up to 61%

The goal has been to get the ball out of his hands faster in the postseason, and he already was one of the fastest during the regular season.