This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 59 Report, a 67-page analysis of the Chiefs vs. Eagles that looks at the big game from every angle. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $100 off using promo code SHARP100.

The Importance of Early Down Success Rate

If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you know EDSR stands for Early Down Success Rate.

It's an efficiency metric I created that isn’t simply success rate of first and second downs, but it does look at efficiency on the early downs.

What you may remember from prior Super Bowl writeups is that it’s the single MOST CORRELATED STATISTIC TO WINNING IN THE POSTSEASON that exists over the last 10 years.

The first thing we do is strip out the huge favorites/dogs and stipulate that games must be lined within 7 points of pick.

That gives a more level playing field to evaluate the teams, and that’s what we have in this game.

Next, teams with a 2+ turnover edge cover 81% of their postseason games, so to determine the efficiency of a stat, it’s best to strip them out.

Let's only focus on games where one team doesn't have a 2+ turnover advantage.

Teams with the better EDSR in these games have covered 74% of their games in the postseason since 2007 (46-16 ATS).

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. Eagles covered in our Super Bowl 59 Hub.

Eagles Early Down Success Rate:

Offensively, the Eagles ranked 16th.

Defensively, the Eagles ranked 8th.

Since Week 10:

  • The Eagles offense ranks #21 and has played 1 top-10 defense in EDSR
    • #1 Ravens
  • The Eagles defense ranks #2 and has played 7 top-10 offenses in EDSR
    • #3 Rams (twice)
    • #5 Ravens
    • #6 Commanders (3 times)
    • #8 Packers

Chiefs Early Down Success Rate:

Offensively, the Chiefs ranked 13th.

Defensively, the Chiefs ranked 4th.

Since Week 10:

  • The Chiefs offense ranks #22 and has played 4 top-10 defenses in EDSR
    • #1 Chargers
    • #4 Browns
    • #6 Broncos (twice)
  • The Chiefs defense ranks #6 and has played 2 top-10 offenses in EDSR
    • #2 Bills (twice)

Click here for the Chiefs' three keys to winning Super Bowl 59

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Three Keys to Eagles Winning Super Bowl 59

  • Success In 11 Personnel
  • Protecting Jalen Hurts
  • Jalen Hurts Against Zone Coverage

Success In 11 Personnel

The NFL average for 11 personnel usage (1 TE, 1 RB, 3 WRs) was 61% this year, which was down slightly from 62% last year but still reflective of the general trend toward three-WR sets over the last decade.

The Eagles, however, are just below that mark at 60% (#16). Philadelphia ranked #8 in usage of 12 personnel (30%).

However, if you don’t look at context, you’re going to be very wrong by using full season stats.

The Eagles have been banged up at the WR position for portions of the year.

DeVonta Smith missed Week 4 with a concussion and Weeks 12-13 with a hamstring injury before being rested in Week 18.

A.J. Brown missed Weeks 2-4 with a hamstring injury before resting in Week 18. Week 5 was a bye.

As such, the Eagles' top two WRs played together in Week 1, Weeks 6-11 (6 games), and Weeks 14-17 (4 games).

Looking at the Eagles' rate of 11 personnel in quarters 1-3 only:

Week 1: 72% 11 personnel
Weeks 6-11: 61% 11 personnel
Weeks 14-17: 72% 11 personnel

For context, there were only three teams that used 11 personnel at a rate above 71% last year (qtrs. 1-3): Falcons, Rams, and Seahawks.

Fast forward to the playoffs.

We saw the Eagles in their playoff games (3 of them) use 11 personnel on 81% of snaps in the first three quarters of games.

So for the vast majority of the regular season, with their top players healthy, the Eagles were very much an 11-personnel-heavy team.

And that factors into their odds of success against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs Against 11 Personnel

If the Eagles are running between 71% and 81% of 11 personnel in the Super Bowl, that’s good for between the #3 and #4 highest rate in the NFL this season.

The Chiefs haven’t played many opponents that use 11 personnel at rates close to the Eagles.

Look at the last 8 opponents the Chiefs played and where they rank in usage of 11 personnel:

Week 21 – #20 BUF
Week 20 – #15 HOU
Week 18 – #19 DEN
Week 17 – #25 PIT
Week 16 – #15 HOU
Week 15 – #10 CLE
Week 14 – #21 LAC
Week 13 – #28 LV

It will definitely be a change of pace for the Chiefs to face upwards of 80% 11 personnel when they’re accustomed to playing teams that are average to well below average in 11 personnel usage, and that could be an issue given their splits against different personnel groupings.

Against 2+ TE set passes:

#14 EPA/att
#18 success rate
#22 YPA

Against 11 personnel passes:

#23 EPA/att
#27 success rate
#14 YPA

And since Week 9 against 11 personnel passes:

#29 EPA/att
#26 success rate
#13 YPA

In terms of running the ball, since Week 9, against 2+ TE set runs:

#7 EPA/rush
#10 success rate
#3 YPC

But against 11 personnel runs:

#17 EPA/rush
#21 success rate
#24 YPC

The Chiefs are allowing only 3.1 YPC against 2+ TE set runs but 4.9 YPC (#24) against 11 personnel runs.

In the playoffs, the Chiefs have allowed 4.5 YPC to early down RB runs out of 11 personnel in the first three quarters of games.

In the last two games, RBs with 4+ rushes against the Chiefs out of 11 personnel in the first 3 quarters of games:

James Cook: 4.8 YPC and 80% success
Ty Johnson: 4.5 YPC and 50% success
Joe Mixon: 5.8 YPC and 60% success

Saquon Barkley Running Out of 11 Personnel

Saquon Barkley’s splits out of his most frequently used personnel groupings, out of 46 qualifying RBs:

11 personnel:

#1 YPC (6.9)
#3 EPA/rush (+0.24)
#3 success rate (47%)

12 personnel:

#6 YPC (5.2)
#2 EPA/rush (+0.12)
#19 success (36%)

Barkley has 345 total rushes this year out of 11 and 12 personnel and only 29 out of 13 personnel, so the odds that the Eagles use Barkley to a significant degree out of anything other than 11 or 12 personnel are extremely low.

But clearly, Barkley is much better out of 11 personnel, and the Chiefs run defense is much worse defending runs from 11 personnel.

The primary run concepts Barkley uses out of 11 personnel are inside zone, outside zone, and to a lesser degree, pull lead and counter.

The Chiefs have been better defending inside zone runs from 11 personnel but have struggled against outside zone and pull lead.

James Cook scored a 6-yard rushing TD from an outside zone run out of 11 personnel last week. He also had a solid 9-yard run using pull-lead out of 11 personnel.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 59 Report, a 67-page analysis of the Chiefs vs. Eagles that looks at the big game from every angle. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $100 off using promo code SHARP100.

Protecting Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts when pressured this year has seen massive regression. He ranks:

#37 of 37 QBs in EPA/att
#37 of 37 QBs in success rate
#33 of 37 QBs in sack rate
#32 of 37 QBs in YPA

Last year he ranked top 10 in virtually all of those stats.

On the season, examine the Eagles' passing attack in EPA/att when pressured vs. when clean.

The Eagles are one of the best in the NFL when not pressured (vertical axis) but one of the worst when pressured (horizontal axis).

Eagles 2024 vs. Pressure Infographic

Here is Jalen Hurts specifically:

Jalen Hurts 2022 vs. Pressure Infographic

It’s troubling to see him sitting near Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, and Caleb Williams.

The fact that Hurts is being pressured as often as he is, and has these results when pressured, should be extremely concerning for the Eagles.

Particularly when facing a Steve Spagnuolo defense.

For perspective, the following two graphics are where the Eagles and Hurts ranked in 2022 before the Super Bowl matchup with Spags that season:

Jalen Hurts 2022 vs. Pressure Infographic

Jalen Hurts 2024 vs. Pressure Infographic

Jalen Hurts Against Zone Coverage

The Eagles passing attack is the #2 best passing attack against man coverage.

However, they struggle immensely against zone coverage.

They are the #2 pass offense against man coverage, but they are below average against zone coverage.

The Commanders play a ton of man coverage, but knowing how the Lions were very sensitive to zone, Dan Quinn surprised the Lions by playing a ton of zone.

It worked wonders against Jared Goff, resulted in multiple interceptions, and helped the Commanders pull off the massive upset.

In the NFC Championship Game, Quinn tried the same against Hurts, and it was more successful than man coverage:

  • Hurts vs. Man: 6-of-7, 86% comp, 11.3 YPA, +0.97 EPA/att, 75% success
  • Hurts vs. Zone: 14-of-20, 70% comp, 8.3 YPA, +0.35 EPA/att, 57% success

But it wasn’t good enough, nor did the Commanders get the interceptions they needed to pull off another upset.

The big question in this game for me becomes what coverage scheme will Spags deploy?

The Chiefs Play High Rates of Man, But Will They Change It Up?

In the regular season, the Chiefs played man coverage at the #10 highest rate. However, that still is only 30% of opponent dropbacks.

In the playoffs, they held relatively steady with a 33% man coverage rate.

Thus, they are playing zone on nearly twice as many snaps.

Of their 608 pass snaps faced this year, on:

130 they played Cover-4 zone
115 they played Cover-1 man
113 they played Cover-3 zone

86 they played Cover-2 zone

46 they played Cover-6 zone
45 they played Cover-0 man

And the rest were smaller amounts.

They primarily play 2-high, but they do play Cover-3 zone nearly as much as they play Cover-1 man.

On the season, the most Cover-3 they have played came against the Broncos, Bills, and Panthers, but these were at rates of between 27% and 31% of dropbacks.

I wonder if playing Cover-3 might be a nice pivot for Spags considering how Hurts has played against that coverage.

Examine his performance this postseason (3 games):

  • Vs. Cover-3 zone: -0.29 EPA/att, 44% success, 6.8 YPA on 25 att
  • Vs. 2-high zone: +0.12 EPA/att, 43% success, 7.0 YPA on 37 att
  • Vs. Cover-1 man: +0.32 EPA/att, 47% success, 8.9 YPA on 17 att

As indicated, Hurts has been much better against man than zone and has been worse against Cover-3 than against 2-high.

As mentioned previously, due to injury, the Eagles' top two WRs played together in Week 1, Weeks 6-11 (6 games), and Weeks 14-17 (4 games).

But considering Dallas Goedert was injured in Week 6 (missed most of that game) and was inactive Weeks 7-9 as well as Weeks 14-17, the only games the top trio of receiving options played together were Week 1, Weeks 10-11, and in the playoffs.

Looking at Jalen Hurts in only those games:

  • Vs. Cover-3 zone: -0.22 EPA/att, 39% success, 7.1 YPA on 68 att
  • Vs. 2-high zone: -0.03 EPA/att, 42% success, 7.1 YPA on 64 att
  • Vs. Cover-1 man: +0.97 EPA/att, 68% success, 13.3 YPA on 28 att

Except for a few Cover-0 blitzes, it seems unwise to play much man coverage against the Eagles.

As such, it seems Spags is far better suited to pivot to more zone than typical and perhaps shading to more Cover-3 when playing zone as well.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 59 Report, a 67-page analysis of the Chiefs vs. Eagles that looks at the big game from every angle. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $100 off using promo code SHARP100.