As more and more data has been analyzed, we’re learning more about methods to increase pass efficiency. We’ve learned that adding play action increases the efficiency of passes. As more teams contemplate utilizing play action more often, there are several mental hurdles teams must overcome with their prior conceptions of play action.

Establishing the run isn’t needed to benefit from play action. In fact, first quarter play action is more productive than play action in the second or third quarter. Additionally, teams can use play action as often as they like. To date, no team has used play action so much that defenses consistently stop biting on it. In fact, play action averages the highest YPA in the fourth quarter.

With those principles understood, and with more teams desiring to incorporate it, there is a need to dive deeper into understanding how to best utilize play action on early downs when in different personnel groupings or when in shotgun vs under center. 

Remember, the purpose of play action is to create the impression of a run play so the defense behaves accordingly, only to realize a tick too late that the quarterback has kept the ball and will pass it.

Defenses study tendencies, and in addition to down and distance, have preconceived expectations of run or pass pre-snap based on two keys: personnel and quarterback alignment (shotgun vs under center). 

Therefore, it makes complete sense that play action should work better with certain combinations of those two pre-snap keys.

For the purpose of this study, I removed third or fourth downs (where play action is rarely used) and looked only at early downs during the 2018 season. 

Let’s examine several actionable takeaways teams should contemplate when choosing to add more play action to their passing attack in 2019:

1. The biggest production increase when using play action is under center in 11 personnel

    • When adding play action, passing success rate improves by 5% (from 47% to 52%) and production improves by 2.5 yards per attempt (from 6.2 YPA to 8.7 YPA)
    • The team to take the most advantage of this edge in 2018 was the New England Patriots. Their passing splits from under center in 11 personnel:
      • With play action: 71% success, 13.4 YPA, 134 rtg (62 att)
      • Without play action: 38% success, 4.4 YPA, 41 rtg (24 att)

2. Passing from under center when in traditional run groupings (such as 12 or 21) does not see any boost in production by adding play action. In fact, passes are more successful when avoiding play action.

    • When adding play action to an under center drop from 12 and 21 personnel combined, success rate decreases by 4% (from 55% to 51%) and YPA production stays flat.

3. Using play action in shotgun from 11 personnel does not show near the improvement in production as using play action from under center. The edge gained is severely muted.

    • When adding play action, success rate improves by 0.7% and YPA increases by 0.5 YPA.

4. Using play action from shotgun in traditional run groupings (such as 12 or 21) shows measurable improvement in production.

    • When adding play action from 12 and 21 combined, success rate improved by 1% and YPA improved by 1.9 YPA (from 6.5 YPA to 8.4 YPA)
    • The team to take the most advantage of this edge in 2018 was the Philadelphia Eagles. Their passing splits from shotgun using either 12 or 21 personnel:
      • With play action: 66% success, 9.8 YPA, 118 rtg (56 att)
      • Without play action: 49% success, 6.4 YPA, 84 rtg (114 att)

5. Note: for some reason, some teams last year used play action in 10 personnel. This is a terrible idea, as it dramatically increased sack rate and tremendously decreased success rate and YPA.

 

As more teams look to incorporate play action into their passing game, they should realize the most opportune time to do so is under center in 11 personnel, with the next most productive instance coming in shotgun from 12 or 21 personnel. 

All play action splits, based on personnel and pre-snap quarterback alignment:

11 Personnel:

Under Center:

With Play Action:  52% success, 8.7 YPA, 97 rtg (9.2 aDOT)
Without Play Action: 47% success, 6.2 YPA, 87 rtg (7.6 aDOT)

Shotgun:

With Play Action:  51% success, 7.2 YPA, 94 rtg (7.0 aDOT)
Without Play Action: 50% success, 6.7 YPA, 87 rtg (7.4 aDOT)

12 Personnel:

Under Center:

With Play Action:  50% success, 8.4 YPA, 92 rtg (10.3 aDOT)
Without Play Action: 55% success, 8.2 YPA, 100 rtg (8.0 aDOT)

Shotgun:

With Play Action:  54% success, 8.6 YPA, 100 rtg (9.0 aDOT)
Without Play Action: 52% success, 6.6 YPA, 94 rtg (6.5 aDOT)

21 Personnel:

Under Center:

With Play Action:  52% success, 8.5 YPA, 90 rtg (10.0 aDOT)
Without Play Action: 55% success, 8.6 YPA, 97 rtg (6.9 aDOT)

Shotgun:

With Play Action:  51% success, 7.4 YPA, 107 rtg (5.8 aDOT)
Without Play Action: 52% success, 6.1 YPA, 90 rtg (5.2 aDOT)