Week 11 was a wild one that delivered on the expected and unexpected. There will be no full 1st & 10 this week, but in its place will be a similar style breakdown of three of this week’s games. Let’s get to it:
1. Ok, Let’s Talk About Taysom Hill
The New Orleans Saints shocked most of the football world when it was reported that Taysom Hill would be the starting quarterback replacing Drew Brees and not Jameis Winston. Sean Payton has continually praised Hill and has hinted that the super-utility player could be the quarterback to take over when Brees retires.
It was easy to mock or overlook that because Hill doesn’t profile as a typical developmental quarterback in waiting. Outside of his gadget role on offense and special teams contributions, he’s already 30 years old with just 18 career passing attempts. But Payton went to Hill and it worked, at least enough for a 24-9 win over the Atlanta Falcons.
Hill’s day went about how one could expect a quarterback making his starting debut would go. He was aided by a favorable scheme and there was not a whole lot asked from him. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Hill had a 6.5-yard average depth of target, the fourth-lowest of the week, and no quarterback had a higher expected completion percentage than his 71.9%. In Hill’s defense, his +6.4% completion percentage over expectation was the eighth-highest among quarterbacks in Week 11.
There was some good and bad within the game, but perhaps the most surprising aspect is how much the Saints treated Hill as a dropback passer. Hill only had two designed runs in the game, one that went for a 2-yard touchdown and a 20-yard run in the fourth quarter that could have helped put the game away, but the ball was punched out for a lost fumble.
Hill still used his legs both to his advantage and detriment throughout the game. He was occasionally skittish in the pocket, though he was able to make some plays with pressure in his face. Hill had a nice pass under pressure for a 23-yard gain to Michael Thomas at the start of the second quarter.
But that was also a well-schemed route from Thomas, who motioned from left to right pre-snap and had a wide-open intermediate crossing route that gave Hill a lot of room to float the pass for a completion.
Of course, there were also some mistakes that could have hurt the Saints against a better opposing defense. Hill took three sacks on the day. The first two came from holding the ball too long but the third potentially showed some of Hill’s lack of experience as a dropback passer.
Late in the third quarter, the Saints came out in empty on a second-and-10. With just a five-man protection, Hill has to be alert for any extra rushers, who will come in free and that’s exactly what happened. Deion Jones blitzed and was untouched and unnoticed by Hill until it was too late. Michael Thomas was open on a crosser from the slot, which could have been a completion for the Saints instead of an 11-yard loss.
Then there was Hill’s lone deep pass. Emmanuel Sanders ran deep and Hill heaved an attempt down the field. But the pass was severely underthrown. Thankfully, Atlanta had so few defenders in the area, Sanders was able to adjust and field the pass like a punt for a gain of 44 yards.
Overall, Hill’s performance was fine. He finished with 10.1 yards per attempt (thanks to the 44-yard pass) though just 0.04 EPA per dropback with a 48% success rate, per nflfastR. He was helped out by his rushing ability, which bumped his total EPA per play to 0.12. It wasn’t perfect and there were certainly things that need to be fixed in order for any success to sustain for however long Brees was out, but also thanks in part to the surrounding talent and Payton’s offense, Hill wasn’t a disaster some would have predicted before the game.
While Hill is clearly the focus, the New Orleans defense has started its annual second-half breakout and that unit demolished the Falcons in Week 11. The Saints had 11 quarterback hits and 11 passes defensed in the game.
The Saints sacked Matt Ryan eight times in the game. Two of those belonged to Trey Hendrickson, who was turned into one of the league’s most effective pass rushers. Entering the week, Hendrickson, a 2017 third-round pick out of Florida Atlantic, was among the league-leaders in pressure rate. Among defenders with at least 100 pass rushes, Hendrickson ranked sixth in pressure rate per Sports Info Solutions. On top of that, he has converted a high rate of those pressures into sacks.
Pressure Leaders Through Week 10, min 100 pass rushes
| Player | Team | Pass Rushes | Pressures | Rush% | Sack% | Pressure% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaq Lawson | Dolphins | 180 | 39 | 88.2% | 1.1% | 22.5% |
| Chase Winovich | Patriots | 131 | 26 | 86.8% | 1.9% | 21.8% |
| T.J. Watt | Steelers | 236 | 49 | 84.3% | 3.8% | 21.4% |
| Romeo Okwara | Lions | 185 | 33 | 90.7% | 3.2% | 18.3% |
| Matt Judon | Ravens | 171 | 29 | 74.7% | 1.7% | 17.6% |
| Trey Hendrickson | Saints | 200 | 32 | 93.5% | 3.7% | 16.8% |
| Jerry Hughes | Bills | 208 | 32 | 93.7% | 1.9% | 16.6% |
| Brian Burns | Panthers | 240 | 38 | 81.9% | 1.7% | 16.5% |
| Leonard Floyd | Rams | 238 | 37 | 81.2% | 2.9% | 16.1% |
| Carl Lawson | Bengals | 211 | 32 | 95.0% | 1.7% | 15.8% |
With two sacks against the Falcons, Hendrickson is now tied for the league-lead in sacks with 9.5, though Aaron Donald is just a half-sack behind with a Monday Night Football game pending. Hendrickson was an athletic prospect and he’s starting to develop more as a pass rusher. His second sack of the game came on a third-and-3 in the second quarter when he bullied left tackle Jake Matthews right into Ryan.
The backend of the secondary helped out, too. Janoris Jenkins had five of New Orleans’s 11 passes defensed. He was beaten for a 46-yard pass to Calvin Ridley to start the game, but was stellar from that point on.
Everything worked for the Saints defense against the Falcons. Ryan was held to just 6.3 yards per attempt with a 19.2 QBR. Atlanta also couldn’t run the ball with 52 yards on 14 carries with a long of seven yards.
At 8-2, New Orleans is the overwhelming favorite to finish atop the NFC with a 54.7% chance at the No. 1 seed, per Football Outsiders. Taysom Hill might not lead a Teddy Bridgewater-like undefeated streak as an in-season Brees replacement, but with a good offensive game plan paired with a defense finally playing up to its talent level, the Saints can more than stay afloat until Brees returns.
2. The Chiefs Always Have Another Gear When They Need It
When the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders played earlier in the season, Derek Carr had what might have been the most aggressive game of his career. In the rematch, Carr might have played one of his best games overall. But while the Raiders were able to sneak out the upset in Week 5, they didn’t have enough for the Chiefs in Week 11, falling 35-31.
Carr threw for 8.9 yards per attempt and averaged 0.57 EPA per play with a 68% success rate, good for a QBR of 95.1, meaning a team with Carr’s performance would be expected to win 95% of the time. The Raiders didn’t go full air raid as they did in the last meeting — Carr’s average depth of target was just 7.4 yards and his average completion was only 5.1 yards past the line of scrimmage — but it was a more aggressive mentality that kept the ball moving forward instead of relying on the check down.
The Raiders came out of the gate ready to attack, though that slightly died down as the game went on. Overall, 10 of Carr’s 31 pass attempts went more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, just slightly above his season rate of 27% of passes. It was Carr’s ability to complete passes that kept the ball moving for the Raiders early, partially due to the perfect mix of scheme and decision making.
Jon Gruden is still pretty good at this offensive design and playcalling thing. It was easy to overlook but last year’s Raiders were a top-10 team (seventh) in passing DVOA. They entered this week seventh in 2020. Throughout the game, Carr only threw into tight windows (a yard or fewer of separation) on 3.2% of his pass attempts according to Next Gen Stats, which indicates he was hitting a lot of open throws. Typically Carr is doing that by keeping passes short, but a more aggressive approach with uncontested pass attempts is an ideal combination.
Plays just worked for the Raiders in this game, like the 3-yard touchdown pass to Darren Waller that took the lead to start the fourth quarter. Las Vegas used Henry Ruggs in jet motion, which pulled both Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen. Waller started to loop his route toward the motion but came back across the back of the end zone uncovered.
On the other side of the ball, the Raiders also started out attacking the Chiefs as they did in the first meeting, sitting back with two-deep coverage forcing Patrick Mahomes to dink and dunk his way down the field. Kansas City was ready for that strategy, especially on their opening drive, when Mahomes got the ball out in 1.97 seconds and averaged just a 2.9-yard average depth of target. They went 85 yards in 14 plays and 7:24 of game time for a touchdown.
But even with stopping the deep ball, the Raiders had few answers for Mahomes in the short to intermediate area. Mahomes was 20-of-21 for 166 yards on passes that traveled between 1-10 yards past the line of scrimmage. On throws between 11-19 air yards, he was 8-of-11 for 188 yards.
That has been what the Chiefs have often needed to rely on this season as defenses have tried to suppress the big play. But Kansas City has been so good, the offense has been able to cruise in second and third gear to do enough to either outright lead or at least keep the game close to where that final gear can be unleashed at the end of the game. The good news for the Chiefs and the bad news for the rest of the NFL is when Kansas City does click into that final year, there is no stopping them.
Las Vegas went on a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that put the Raiders up by three points and left 1:43 in the game. Mahomes and the Chiefs easily drove down the field by picking apart the defense with gains of 10, 9, 16, 15, and 3 yards that set up a second-and-7 from the Raiders’ 22-yard line.
On that play, the Chiefs used a lot of motion to identify the defense and switch the coverage responsibilities with receivers moving from one side to the other and Darrel Williams going from an empty look into the backfield. The Raiders were in Quarters coverage, their go-to for preventing the big play because of the four-deep alignment in coverage. But at the snap, the Chiefs offensive line was able to handle the pass rush (as it had all night — neither quarterback was sacked, though the Raiders did get five hits) and Mahomes snuck out of the pocket.
As Mahomes crept toward the line of scrimmage, safety Jonathan Abram left his zone to charge toward the quarterback to stop the scramble. This defensive aggression is something we’ve seen a lot this year on bootlegs near the goal line where the flat defender will charge the quarterback and leave an open receiver in the corner of the end zone. It’s less common for this to happen in the open field and Abram’s vacated zone was left wide open for Travis Kelce on a 22-yard game-winning touchdown.
Kansas City is still the most dangerous team in the league, even though their foot isn’t consistently on the gas. But they haven’t needed to do that yet. They’re now a near-lock to win the division (97.4% per FO) but the first-round bye could evade them. With Pittsburgh’s win, the Steelers are still undefeated and have a 71.9% chance of locking up the first seed in the AFC.
3. Denver Exposed Miami’s Weaknesses
We’ve spent a lot of time hyping up the Miami Dolphins over the past few weeks (the author of this article is among the guiltiest parties) but a 20-13 loss to the Denver Broncos showed this is still a flawed team.
For as good as the pass defense has been lately, the run defense has been among the worst in the league. That hasn’t mattered over the past few weeks because the Dolphins have gotten out to early leads and forced opponents to throw. Even in this game, the Broncos found themselves in third-and-long on their opening drive, were forced to call a timeout against the no-down-linemen bounce around defensive look, and then Drew Lock threw an ugly interception in the middle of the field.
But the Broncos eventually settled down. They leaned on the run game, which worked just well enough to keep Denver out of long third downs. The Dolphins entered the week 29th in DVOA against the run, opposed to ninth against the pass. Denver’s runs chipped away just enough to keep pressure off Lock, which allowed the quarterback to play his brand of YOLO ball with an 11.1-yard aDOT, the third-highest mark of Week 11 per Next Gen Stats.
On defense, Vic Fangio worked a weakness in the Miami offensive line that hadn’t been exploited since Tua Tagovailoa took over as the starting quarterback. Denver had nine quarterback hits and Tagovailoa was sacked six times. There were some late blitzes mixed with some blown blocks, but most concerning were the stunts Miami’s offensive line couldn’t pick up.
Entering Week 10, the Dolphins were 25th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate. The Dolphins had been able to get around it by putting Tagovailoa on the move in previous games, but there were too many breakdowns against the Broncos.
Late in the second quarter, the Dolphins had a third-and-10 on Denver’s 14-yard line. The Broncos sent a four-man rush with a stunt between Bradley Chubb (55) and Demarcus Walker (57) against the left side of the line. Walker was able to loop around the edge and rookie Austin Jackson was unable to get wide enough to pick it up.
Early in the fourth quarter, the Dolphins faced a penalty-driven third-and-21. Chubb was again part of the stunt as he looped from the edge to the inside. But Alexander Johnson (45) had already pushed the guard so far back, it was impossible for the offensive linemen to pass off the stunt.
That was Tagovaolia’s final play of the game before he was removed for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tagovailoa had his worst game as a pro — 11-of-20 for 83 yards, a QBR of 26.5, and -0.26 EPA per play. After the game, Brian Flores announced that Tagovailoa would still be the starter going forward.
Miami was a team that looked as if it could compete for the AFC East as soon as this season, but with the loss the Dolphins dropped a game behind the Buffalo Bills and are now just a 50-50 proposition to make the playoffs overall (49.4% per FO). There is still a lot to like about the Dolphins, but there are still some pieces that need to be fixed for more sustained success.
