After collapsing on the field Monday night, Bills safety Damar Hamlin remains in critical condition after suffering cardiac arrest. The entire NFL community has rallied around Hamlin, sharing prayers and wishes for a positive outcome. Donations to his Toy Drive for children via his GoFundMe page have raised over $7.5 million.

The horribly sad injury to Hamlin has been front and center in our hearts and minds.

The NFL has announced Week 18 games will be played but a decision has not been made on when to resume the Bills vs Bengals game, if it is resumed.

It is not an easy decision.

If the game is not resumed at a later date, the three teams sitting atop the AFC are directly impacted.

As there are a lot of questions surrounding the impact of the different decisions the league might make, we wanted to share what we know about how the final NFL standings may be decided.

For instance, there is speculation that the Kansas City game on Saturday vs the Raiders would be “meaningless” and we wanted to clarify how the possible scenarios might play out.

Scenario 1: the Bills vs Bengals Week 17 game is CANCELED…

What if the Bills vs Bengals game is NOT rescheduled?

Most people assume the Bills vs Bengals game will be canceled. But per Football Zebras, that is unlikely:

“While there are very few options to schedule a resumption of the game, not scheduling a resumption of the game seems to be very unlikely. However, if the game is not resumed, standings for the playoff seeds would be calculated on win percentage as usual.”

If we know playoff standings are calculated on win percentage, let’s breakdown the current AFC standings.

Current AFC Standings & Win Percentage:

  1. Chiefs (13-3), 0.812
  2. Bills (12-3), 0.800
  3. Bengals (11-4), 0.733

If the Chiefs win on Saturday:

The #1 seed goes to the Chiefs with a win Saturday versus the Raiders. A Week 18 win for Kansas City ensures they get the #1 seed as they would be 14-3 with a 0.824 win percentage.

If the Chiefs lose on Saturday & the Bills win on Sunday:

With a loss, the Chiefs could be leapfrogged by the Bills for the #1 seed if Buffalo beats the Patriots this Sunday:

  1. Bills (13-3), 0.812
  2. Chiefs (13-4), 0.765

Could the Bengals get the #1 seed if they win and both the Chiefs & Bills lose?

The Bengals could NOT get the #1 seed even if both the Chiefs and Bills both lost in Week 18. A Bengals win in week 18 vs the Ravens would put the Bengals at 12-4 with a 0.750 win percentage which would still be behind the Chiefs regardless is they lose on Saturday.

Could the Bengals get the #2 seed in the AFC?

Maybe, but it will depend on several tiebreakers. A Bengals win (12-4, 0.750) and a Bills loss (12-4, 0.750) means we go to tiebreakers to determine the #2 seed.

Since this first discussion hinges on the BUF vs CIN game not being resumed, there is no head-to-head record to use as a tiebreaker.

Therefore the next tiebreaker looked at would be conference record:

  • assuming a BUF Week 18 loss and a CIN Week 18 win,
  • both would be 8-3 in conference games

So we then move to the next tiebreaker: best won-lost-tie percentage in common games.

There were a LOT of common games for the Bills and Bengals (CLE, KC, MIA, NYJ, NE, BAL, PIT, TEN). In those games:

  • the Bills went 8-2
  • the Bengals went 7-3

If the Bills lose to the Patriots (common) and the Bengals beats the Ravens (common), then both Cincinnati and Buffalo are 8-3 in common games, which means we move on to yet another tiebreaker: strength of victory in all games.

How is Strength of Victory calculated for NFL tiebreakers?

Strength of victory (SOV) is calculated by combining win percentage of opponents a team has beaten and dividing by the number of wins.

If we look at both the Bengals and Bills for strength of victory:

  • the Bengals’ wins have come vs opponents who are 85-91, so their SOV is .483
  • the Bills’ wins have come vs opponents who are 92-100, so their SOV is .479

A Bengals win over the Ravens (who are 10-6) in Week 18 likely moves their SOV higher and gives the Bengals the tiebreaker.

The bottom line: we would be shocked if the Bengals & Bills tiebreaker goes beyond the strength of victory tiebreaker.

Thus, while a Chiefs win on Saturday seals their #1 seed (again, assuming Bengals vs Bills is not resumed), the #2 and #3 seeds are very much up in the air.

The Bills have a lot to play for versus the Patriots in Week 18 or there is a good chance the Bengals leapfrog them in the race for the #2 seed in the AFC.

Scenario 2: the Bills vs Bengals Week 17 game IS rescheduled…

What if the Bills vs Bengals game IS rescheduled?

Given everything laid out in Scenario 1 (the Bills vs Bengals game not being played), resuming the Week 17 Bills vs Bengals game is the only way Cincinnati have a shot at the #1 seed.

It also allows the Bills, with a win, a shot at the #1 seed even if the Chiefs beat the Raiders on Saturday.

How might the Bengals vs Bills game be rescheduled?

The previously mentioned article speculates a couple ways to resume the CIN vs BUF game:

Option 1: play it “Week 19” and delete the pre-Super Bowl Bye week. The NFL did everything it could to avoid this from happening in the 2020 COVID season and may try to avoid this option again.

Option 2: move the Week 18 scheduled games of Bengals vs Bills and Bills vs Patriots up two days from Sunday to Friday. Then resume the suspended Bengals vs Bills game the following Tuesday (4-days between games). Then play any Wild Card Weekend game featuring either the Bengals or Bills on Wild Card Monday (6-days between games).

This late in the season, there are very few options for the NFL to easily schedule a resumption of the Bengals vs Bills game. If the NFL does not choose either of these options, they will have to come up with a new idea or choose not to reschedule the game at all.