Patriots vs. Lions Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Patriots vs. Lions Week 10 matchup in Germany. 

Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

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Patriots vs. Lions Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Drake Maye

It wasn't flattering from a real football standpoint on Sunday, but Maye still managed to compile enough counting stats to deliver a QB9 (18.3 points) scoring week for gamers.

Maye did not beat any strength-of-schedule allegations on Sunday against Green Bay, completing a season-low 55.3% of his passes with 3 more interceptions.

Maye has thrown a league-high 11 interceptions.

Including the 4 he threw in the postseason last year, Maye has thrown 15 interceptions over his past 13 games played.

The positive spin for gamers is that Maye was forced into a jailbreak game script, which led to 299 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns.

Maye has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past six games.

When we broke down last week's matchup with Green Bay, we highlighted how good the Packers have been downfield and that it wasn't going to be an easy layout for how Maye wants to work.

Maye went 7 of 17 (41.2%) with all 3 interceptions on throws 10 or more yards downfield.

Detroit is not nearly as daunting a matchup.

The Lions have allowed a 52% completion rate on those throws (20th) while allowing 12 touchdowns on throws 10 or more yards downfield, tied for the most in the league.

The Lions have played better over their past four games, allowing a 59.5% completion rate (6th) and 6.5 yards per pass attempt (14th) after a 69.7% completion rate (29th) and 7.9 Y/A (27th) over their first four games.

In that sample, they faced Malik Willis, Jacoby Brissett, and Kyler Murray, which casts some shade on them truly turning a corner, but they also allowed only a 60% completion rate and 6.1 Y/A to Jordan Love around those other guys to keep our attention.

Detroit still allowed multiple touchdowns to all of those passers except Willis.

Maye still has plenty of appeal here as an upside QB1.

This game has plenty of shootout appeal.

The Patriots should be pushed to throw the football given the matchup and the state of their backfield.

The downside is losing another skill player in the passing game with Rhamondre Stevenson‘s injury.

New England is pretty banged up going to Germany.

A.J. Brown is making the trip and could play.

The Patriots are on bye next week, so there is some doubt we will see him suit up, but we will keep tabs on his status throughout the week.

The offensive line is still a question mark.

Maye has been pressured on 43.4% of his dropbacks, 27th in the league.

Detroit has been getting to the quarterback, posting a 36.7% pressure rate (11th) with a 7.9% sack rate (8th).

That can open up rushing opportunities for Maye, who has scrambled on 13.1% of his pressures (8th).

Jared Goff

Goff was one of the larger disappointments from last week, completing 17 of 25 passes (68%) for 170 yards (6.8 Y/A) without a touchdown and an interception against the Dolphins.

It was the first time Goff did not throw a touchdown pass in a game since Week 12 of the 2024 season.

It is the first time he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in back-to-back games since Weeks 8 and 9 of the 2024 season.

As strong as Goff's overall numbers are this season, he has been the QB16 or lower in half of his games, with three top-10 weeks.

This game has plenty of shootout appeal for Goff as a back-end QB1 with upside.

The Patriots offense should push the Lions more than the Miami unit last week.

The good news is that the Patriots defense has not played well when tasked with punching up this season.

They allowed 35 points to the Jaguars, 26 points to the Bills, 30 points to the Bears, and 45 points to the Packers.

Trevor Lawrence (19.8 points), Josh Allen (18.5 points), Caleb Williams (22.1 points), and Jordan Love (36.2 points) all had successful fantasy lines against them, with Love dropping a true hammer last week.

The Patriots are now allowing a 67.5% completion rate (30th), 7.9 yards per pass attempt (25th), and 4.9% touchdown rate (19th) to passers.

It did not help Goff in last week's matchup, but the Patriots have also struggled to slow down play-action passing.

Against play action, the Patriots have allowed a 72.8% completion rate (29th), 10.6 yards per pass attempt (31st), and 7.4% touchdown rate (29th).

Goff is fourth in play-action rate (35.6%).

Patriots vs. Lions Fantasy Running Back Preview

Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs rushed 20 times for 74 yards on Sunday, finding the end zone for the 11th time this season to salvage his afternoon.

Gibbs' three lowest rushing totals this year have all come away from Detroit.

He had an awesome game in Arizona, rushing 25 times for 151 yards (6.0 YPC), but in his other three games away from Detroit, Gibbs has rushed for 52 yards (3.3 YPC), 46 yards (3.1 YPC), and 74 yards (3.7 YPC).

In those other weeks, Gibbs still boosted his games through receiving.

On Sunday, he had all his touches on runs.

He failed to catch a pass for the first time since Week 4 of the 2024 season and the third time in his career.

We know how good this offense has played at home.

We sometimes take that for granted, assuming it's the norm.

But there's no doubt this offense let down in Miami, too.

Nothing is deterring us from going back to Gibbs as an RB1 (especially in a potential shootout), but it's just food for thought in a tougher spot than a week ago.

The Patriots are allowing 4.0 YPC to running backs (12th) with a 64.7% success rate (10th) against backfield runs.

They are allowing 0.84 yards before contact per rush (9th) and have hit ball carriers at the line or in the backfield on 51% of those runs (5th).

The Patriots have not allowed a 100-yard rusher yet, and they are sixth in receiving points allowed per game to backs (6.5 per game).

They have not allowed a top-10 back yet, with James Cook, D'Andre Swift, and Bhayshul Tuten as the best backs on their ledger so far this season.

Patriots RBs

This backfield enters the week in a tough spot.

Corey Kiner and Lan Larison are looking to lead this backfield, with Rhamondre Stevenson expected to miss multiple games with a knee injury and TreVeyon Henderson sidelined indefinitely due to neurological symptoms.

Kiner has been a solid rusher, posting 4.9 YPC (8th) and a 42% success rate (12th) on 50 carries this season.

However, Kiner has only 2 receptions, so he is still a touchdown-dependent RB3 if the Patriots do come into Sunday with this backfield as is.

Detroit has been sturdy against the run, allowing 3.9 YPC (11th) and 72.3 yards rushing per game (6th) to backs.

The Lions are also 10th in receiving points allowed (7.5 per game) to backs, which impacts Larison as a floor-based option in full-PPR formats.

Running backs have scored 22.9% of the fantasy points allowed by Detroit, the lowest share in the league.

Patriots vs. Lions Fantasy Wide Receiver Preview

Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown caught 8 of 10 targets for 86 yards on Sunday, one of the core Lions who didn't bottom out despite not matching expectations in a matchup against Miami.

St. Brown is a reliable WR1 with upside here.

He has 32% of Detroit's targets (WR3), with 30.5% on early downs (WR3) and 40.3% on third downs (WR2).

New England is coming off getting torched by the Green Bay duo of Matthew Golden (10-164-1) and Christian Watson (7-171-1).

Christian Gonzalez had his worst game as a pro on Sunday, allowing 11 catches on 12 targets in his coverage for 192 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He had never allowed more than 74 yards in coverage in a game in his career, but he allowed 82 yards to Watson and 110 to Golden.

St. Brown can also get away from Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, as he plays 40.9% of his snaps in the slot.

New England has had issues slowing down inside receivers, allowing 11.2 yards per target (30th) and a 10.9% touchdown rate (29th) to those receivers.

New England also plays man coverage at the second-highest rate (28.5%).

Detroit rarely sees any man coverage, but when they do, St. Brown has been targeted on 50% of his routes (only 26 total routes) with 3 of his 5 touchdowns.

Jameson Williams

Williams caught 1 of 2 targets for 31 yards on Sunday.

With Goff and the offense limited on Sunday, there was only enough for the centerpieces (Gibbs and St. Brown) to survive with floor-based games while the secondary pieces were limited.

The 2 targets were a season low for Williams.

Williams will look to bounce back as a boom-or-bust WR2/WR3 option.

As noted, there is plenty of shootout appeal here.

New England had their hands full with the Green Bay speed threats downfield last week if chasing the big play potential here for Williams.

The Patriots have now allowed a league-high 16 receptions to wide receivers on throws 20 or more yards downfield after last weekend.

Williams does play 83% of his snaps out wide and has only been targeted on 12% of his routes against man coverage (0.56 yards per route run), but those are rates that were also noted for Christian Watson going into last week.

Mack Hollins

Hollins returned last week to catch 3 of 6 targets for 36 yards and a touchdown.

He was on the field for 76.7% of Drake Maye‘s dropbacks, second on the team.

Hollins has now been targeted on 20.7% of his routes (2nd  among the wide receivers) with 2.02 yards per route (1st).

Hollins is a WR3/FLEX here.

We are expecting New England to have to throw.

Detroit is mid-range in allowing 8.0 yards per target (17th) to receivers, and they have allowed only a 3.6% touchdown rate (8th).

However, they face 20.6 targets per game to wide receivers (4th most), which elevates the counting stats they have allowed (24th in points allowed per game).

DeMario Douglas

Douglas grabbed 5 of 9 targets for 102 yards on Sunday against the Packers.

He ran a route on a team-high 88.4% of the dropbacks while Maye was in the game.

Douglas has been a WR2 or better in four of his past five games.

He has lived a bit on touchdown production (4 touchdowns) over that span, with up-and-down target shares of 26.7%, 13.3%, 15.8%, and 25%.

He does lead the team with 6 end-zone targets, however.

With New England expected to throw a lot and entering the week assuming A.J. Brown is still more of an unexpected play, Douglas has appeal as a WR3 with added upside if he continues to run hot in the touchdown department.

Patriots WRs

Efton Chism caught all 5 of his targets for 49 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

Chism only ran a route on 44.2% of the dropbacks with Maye in the game compared to 74.4% for Kyle Williams, but Williams was not targeted.

Williams is a touchdown-or-bust play for single-game DFS.

Chism is also best used for single-game DFS based on his playing time, but he has been a better target earner than Williams for those taking shots on him in deeper leagues.

Chism has been targeted on 20.2% of his routes (1.61 yards per route run), compared to 9.7% for Williams.

Patriots vs. Lions Fantasy Tight End Preview

Sam LaPorta

LaPorta secured 4 of 5 targets for 32 yards on Sunday.

Leaving a good matchup on the table, LaPorta has 8 catches for 83 yards over his past three games.

Two of those were tougher opponents, but that is what he runs into here.

Tight ends have accounted for 15.8% of the fantasy points allowed by New England (6th lowest).

The Patriots have allowed 4.9 receptions per game to tight ends (11th), allowing 6.4 yards per target (9th) and a 3% touchdown rate (8th) to the position.

LaPorta is a touchdown-dependent option on the TE1/TE2 line.

Hunter Henry

Coming into Sunday with a foot injury, Henry caught 3 passes for 35 yards against the Packers.

The injury and one-sided game limited Henry to a route on 51.2% of the dropbacks while Maye was playing.

Henry could still be limited here, but since he was able to suit up after only one practice last week, we should assume that he dresses again.

The potential that he is limited adds some volatility, but Henry would have matchup appeal as a TE2 with upside should he be a full go.

The Lions did not allow a touchdown to a tight end last week, but they still have allowed a league-high 11 touchdowns to the position this season.

Eli Raridon

Raridon caught 3 of 6 targets for 52 yards against Green Bay.

He was targeted on a season-high 27.8% of his routes, but even with Henry banged up, Raridon was in a pass route for only 41.9% of Maye's dropbacks.

His only TE1 scoring week this season came with a touchdown, leaving Raridon as a better single-game DFS dart.

If you are chasing a touchdown, there are worse matchups, as noted with Henry.

Detroit has allowed a league-high 12.8% touchdown rate to tight ends.

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