Baylor vs. Auburn, Current Betting Odds:
- Auburn -7 points
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Baylor vs. Auburn Best Bet Prediction:
- Auburn -7
An overhauled offense should allow Auburn to have its way with Baylor's rebuilding defense, so let's bet Auburn against the spread in what should be a high-scoring game.
When Baylor Is on Offense
Baylor returns just one starter from last year's 33rd-ranked scoring offense, though coordinator Jake Spavital is back to rebuild with a transfer-heavy group.
Former five-star DJ Lagway takes over at quarterback after failing to develop during his two seasons at Florida.
Spavital likes to take shots downfield, and Lagway certainly has the arm for the offense.
In 2025, Baylor averaged 9.6 throws per game at 15 or more yards downfield when outside the red zone, per Sports Info Solutions.
Based on Lagway's performance last year, however, an aggressive downfield passing attack might not be the best fit for his skill set.
Outside the red zone, Lagway's catchable-pass rate at 15 or more yards downfield was just 61%, ranked 114th out of 129 qualifiers.
That's obviously a red flag, but could the offense work anyway?
One of the few quarterbacks worse than Lagway was Baylor's Sawyer Robertson, who ranked 123rd with a 58% catchable-pass rate at that depth.
Obviously, Baylor overcame Robertson's inefficient performance as a downfield passer, so perhaps what will actually determine the success of the offense will be Lagway's ability to handle RPOs.
Baylor used RPOs at the nation's fifth-highest rate a season ago (38%), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Florida didn't rely on RPOs as often (24%), but Lagway was successful when given the opportunity.
Most notably, Florida threw the ball out of RPOs 34% of the time (average is 25%), and Lagway produced positive EPA on 63% of those plays.
That ranked sixth out of 49 quarterbacks with at least 40 RPO pass attempts per Sports Info Solutions.
The RPO game is potentially a weakness for the Auburn defense, as the Tigers ranked 69th in yards per play allowed against RPOs a season ago.
Though Lagway may be able to move the ball through the air, Baylor should be concerned about its rushing attack against the Auburn defense.
Check out how these teams stacked up last year in the ground game based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Baylor: ranked 75th in yards before contact gained
- Auburn: ranked 2nd in yards before contact allowed
- Baylor: ranked 30th in yards after contact gained
- Auburn: ranked 18th in yards after contact allowed
Baylor will have four new starters on the offensive line, and there's little reason to have faith the group will make immediate improvements.
Baylor is starting Logan Moore at left tackle, a transfer from UAB who has one year of starting experience on the right side of the line and committed 11 penalties in just 11 games.
Auburn has some transfers on the defensive line as well, but the return of linebacker Xavier Atkins should make coordinator DJ Durkin confident about his run defense remaining a strength.
Atkins' athleticism makes him particularly valuable when Auburn lines up with a light box, helping the unit rank sixth in the nation in yards per attempt allowed with six or fewer defenders in the box (3.6).
That bodes well for Auburn's success against Baylor, which spreads defenses out and ran into a light box 77% of the time last year, the nation's ninth-highest rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
When Auburn Is on Offense
Auburn's offense got a massive overhaul this season, with new head coach Alex Golesh bringing his quarterback Byrum Brown and a few others with him from USF.
If you haven't watched USF in recent years, you may be more familiar with Golesh as Tennessee's former offensive coordinator.
Golesh played a key role in the revival of that program, helping them lead the nation in scoring with Hendon Hooker at quarterback during an 11-2 season in 2022.
So while the leap from USF to the SEC won't be easy, we already have proof Golesh's scheme can work at this level.
Golesh's offense is best described as an ultra-fast veer-and-shoot scheme.
Last year at USF, Golesh's offense ranked second in the nation in pace of play, running a play once every 21.7 seconds of game clock.
Although Golesh became known for his downfield passing attack at Tennessee, Brown's running ability at quarterback has shifted the focus of the offense.
Based on situational data, USF only threw the ball at a rate 0.6% above expected last year, according to Campus2Canton.
And when USF did throw the ball, the Bulls' downfield pass rate fell right in line with the FBS average (22.7% of attempts at 15 or more yards downfield, per Sports Info Solutions).
With Brown and five USF receivers joining Golesh at Auburn, it's safe to assume those rates remain relatively steady.
When Brown drops back to pass, it will be difficult for Baylor to get pressure on him due to Auburn's scheme.
Although Brown will extend plays with his legs, the offense is designed to get the ball out quickly.
As a result, USF ranked 19th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed last season.
Baylor's defense ranked 70th by the same metric, though the front seven may feature as many as four new starters from the portal.
Dave Aranda, who called the defense until this year, is also hoping to solve this problem by handing the defense over to former Kansas State coordinator Joe Klanderman.
Another concern for the Bears defense is Brown's running ability, as Baylor struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks a season ago.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Baylor ranked 121st defending quarterback run plays, allowing 25% more yards on the ground relative to what opposing quarterbacks were gaining against others.
That's problematic against Brown, who averaged 101.1 yards per game on the ground, excluding sacks, against FBS opponents in 2025.
Baylor might also struggle to defend Auburn's backfield, led by Jeremiah Cobb.
Another staple of Golesh's offense is creating light boxes for his ball carriers, which is the type of offense Klanderman has often struggled to defend.
Check out Kansas State's run defense with a light box over the last four years:
- 2025 – 6.0 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 110th
- 2024 – 5.3, ranked 63rd
- 2023 – 5.6, ranked 84th
- 2022 – 5.2, ranked 61st
In 2025, 60% of USF's handoffs were against a light box.
Klanderman primarily relies on 3-3-5 alignments, so it's not an issue of opponents forcing them out of their comfort zone.
The issue more likely stems from his aggressive approach to playcalling 一 Kansas State blitzed 32% of the time last year 一 which increases the chances of defenders finding themselves out of position to make a play.
Klanderman's aggressive scheme might be particularly risky given Baylor's inexperience at linebacker.
The Bears return just one starter at linebacker, Kyland Reed, though he is competing with others to hang on to that job.
Baylor should also be worried about Golesh's tendency to lean on RPOs, a strategy which consistently caught the Bears out of position last year.
USF ran RPOs at the nation's 12th-highest rate (32% of plays).
Most of those RPOs turned into run plays, though USF did throw the ball out of RPOs 20% of the time.
Baylor ranked 107th in yards per play allowed against RPOs last year, and the team's inexperience at linebacker is enough to doubt improvement, at least early in the year.
Final Thoughts on Auburn vs. Baylor Best Bets
There's a chance DJ Lagway looks more comfortable in Baylor's offense than he did at Florida, but he probably doesn't have enough support to keep pace with Byrum Brown on the other side.
Let's lay the points and take Auburn against the spread.
