This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into the first playoff game of the year, a rematch between Alabama and Oklahoma in Norman.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma, current line:
Alabama at Oklahoma Best Bet Prediction:
Turnovers swung the first meeting in Oklahoma’s favor, but you can’t bet on those types of luck-influenced outcomes, so let’s lay the points and take Alabama against the spread.
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma, best line: Alabama -1
» Bet it now at Novig: Alabama -1.5 points
When Alabama is on Offense
Alabama features a pass-heavy offense under head coach Kalen DeBoer and coordinator Ryan Grubb, throwing the ball at a rate 9.0% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton.
The Tide are certain to stick to that strategy against Oklahoma, as there’s little reason to believe Alabama can move the ball against the Sooners’ defensive front.
Check out this lopsided matchup in the run game based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 31st in yards before contact
- Oklahoma: ranked 1st in yards before contact allowed
- Alabama: ranked 117th in yards after contact
- Oklahoma: ranked 23rd in yards after contact allowed
To make matters worse for the Tide, starting running back Jam Miller is banged up, and his status is uncertain.
The lack of a rushing attack is obviously concerning, though Alabama’s offense was just fine without it in the first meeting.
Alabama averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and 5.4 yards per play in the first meeting, both the second-highest rates allowed by Oklahoma this season.
One of the reasons for Ty Simpson’s success in the first matchup was Alabama’s ability to shut down Oklahoma’s pass rush.
The Sooners generated pressure on just 27% of Simpson’s dropbacks in that contest.
However, based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, this is a fair fight in the trenches:
- Alabama: ranked 29th in pressure rate allowed
- Oklahoma: ranked 26th in pressure rate generated
The Sooners’ pass rush has been trending in the wrong direction, however, since losing star edge-rusher R Mason Thomas to injury in Week 10 against Tennessee.
Since the injury, Oklahoma ranks 82nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate.
Thomas is hoping to return from the ankle injury this week, but it’s unclear how close to full strength he will be if he takes the field.
With or without Thomas, Oklahoma needs to dial up more blitzes in this game to make Simpson uncomfortable.
Oklahoma only blitzed Simpson 25% of the time, its fifth-lowest rate of the year, a strategy which made no sense when considering the absence of Thomas and Simpson’s numbers against the blitz:
Comp Pct (Rank) Yds/Att (Rank) Positive EPA Rate (Rank) No Blitz 68% (26th) 7.9 (43rd) 51% (17th) Blitz 55% (113th) 6.9 (98th) 43% (80th)
Although Oklahoma has a respectable secondary, the unit has greatly benefited from the success of the pass rush.
When generating pressure, the Sooners are allowing just 4.4 yards per attempt (ranked 9th) compared to 7.3 yards per attempt when failing to pressure the quarterback (ranked 43rd), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Unless Oklahoma dramatically improves its pass-rush production from the last game, it’s unlikely the Sooners can slow down the Alabama passing attack due to the secondary.
Alabama runs a modern pro-style offense in which Simpson takes a traditional dropback 59% of the time, the 28th-highest rate in the FBS.
Although Oklahoma generated pressure against traditional dropbacks at a strong rate (ranked 34th), the secondary has consistently been burned, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt on those plays (ranked 92nd), per Sports Info Solutions.
We also have to address the turnover situation, as Oklahoma forced 2 fumbles and an interception in the first meeting, which played a critical role in the outcome.
It’s impossible to view those turnovers as anything other than a fluke.
Oklahoma only forced 13 turnovers on the season, tied for 94th in the FBS.
Additionally, the Sooner secondary ranked 116th in ball-hawk rate, making a play on the ball on just 10% of pass attempts, per Sports Info Solutions.
Interceptions can be a function of luck in small sample sizes, but ball-hawk rate is a better predictor of success in turnover production, so there’s no reason to expect a similar turnover outcome in this matchup.
When Oklahoma is on Offense
Oklahoma’s primary objective on offense is protecting the ball and running the clock so that it can win a low-scoring game while leaning on its defense.
That’s easier said than done, however, due to the absence of a run game.
According to Campus2Canton, the Sooners throw the ball at a rate 5.2% above expected based on situation data 一 a trend that developed purely out of necessity.
Coordinator Ben Arbuckle relies heavily on spread formations, which have created light boxes on 68% of handoffs to running backs, per Sports Info Solutions.
However, Sooners ball carriers have been unable to take advantage of the friendly scheme.
Although Oklahoma ranks 42nd in opponent-adjusted yards before contact (in large part due to the spread offense), it only ranks 103rd in yards after contact.
Let’s check out the matchup when the defense has six or fewer defenders in the box, based on data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma: 4.6 yards per attempt, ranked 103rd
- Alabama: 4.9 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 40th
In the first meeting between these teams, leading rushers Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock picked up just 35 yards on 15 carries.
Quarterback John Mateer contributed to the run game as well, but had just 8 carries for 37 yards in the first meeting.
Although Mateer is a capable runner, he’s better at buying time with his legs than actually making big plays in the run game.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Mateer has gained 8.5% fewer rushing yards than expected this season, per Sports Info Solutions.
So it appears as though Oklahoma will have to lean on Mateer’s arm instead for the majority of its offensive production.
Although the Sooners had limited success through the air in the first meeting, Oklahoma does have the ability to shut down Alabama’s pass rush.
Mateer was pressured on just 26% of his dropbacks in the first meeting, and that is likely a repeatable performance based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma: ranked 30th in pressure rate allowed
- Alabama: ranked 110th in pressure rate generated
Unfortunately for Oklahoma, Mateer isn’t able to take full advantage of his protection due to his struggles as a downfield passer.
On throws 15 or more yards downfield, Mateer is completing just 34% of his attempts, ranked 116th.
Mateer’s struggles could be the result of a broken thumb 一 he has completed just 26% of his throws at that depth since returning from surgery 一 and there’s a slight chance he could look better after a two-week layoff.
However, Alabama’s downfield pass defense won’t make life easy on Mateer, even if the added rest gives him a boost.
Outside the red zone, opponents are completing just 35% of attempts against the Tide at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 26th.
Due to Mateer’s issues as a downfield passer, Oklahoma tries to attack underneath at a high rate.
Since his return from injury, 51% of Mateer's throws have been five or fewer yards downfield.
Unfortunately for the Sooners, this is also an area where Alabama appears to hold an edge based on these numbers on throws five or fewer yards downfield from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma: 5.2 yards per attempt, ranked 77th
- Alabama: 4.6 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 21st
Given all of the advantages Alabama’s defense appears to have in this matchup, it’s surprising Oklahoma won the first meeting, but it certainly wasn’t the fault of the Tide’s defense.
Alabama held the Sooners to 212 yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play, Oklahoma’s second-lowest rate of the year.
Final Thoughts on Oklahoma vs. Alabama Best Bets
Luck was on the Sooners’ side last time out, and there’s no reason to expect a fluky outcome again 一 lay the points and bet Alabama against the spread.
There are some adjustments Oklahoma can make on defense to potentially level the playing field, but aside from turnovers, the last meeting was so lopsided that it’s hard to trust the Sooners.
Oklahoma’s longest drives in the first meeting were 31 and 41 yards.
You don’t win too many games with offensive production like that, especially against a team like Alabama.
