This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dig into a critical Big Ten showdown as Oregon hosts Indiana in Eugene.
Indiana vs. Oregon, current line:
Indiana at Oregon Best Bet Prediction:
Expect the Hoosiers to run the ball in this matchup, which increases the odds of a tight game, so bet on Indiana against the spread.
- Indiana vs. Oregon, best line: Indiana +7.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Indiana +7.5 points
When Indiana is on Offense
The Hoosiers run a balanced offense leaning heavily on RPOs under coordinator Mike Shanahan, who has been Curt Cignetti’s offensive coordinator since the 2021 season at James Madison.
According to Sports Info Solutions, RPOs have accounted for 26% of Indiana’s offense (ranked 30th), and the Hoosiers are averaging 6.9 yards per play off RPOs (ranked 29th).
However, Indiana has yet to face an opponent capable of containing its RPO offense.
Recent Big Ten foes Illinois ranks 87th in yards per play allowed against RPOs, while Iowa ranks 75th.
Indiana is particularly aggressive throwing off RPOs, which makes this offense unique.
Only 28% of RPOs lead to pass attempts across the FBS, but Indiana throws out of RPOs at a 48% rate, while gaining 8.0 yards per attempt.
This unique quirk to the Hoosiers offense has the potential to confuse the Ducks, as Oregon has faced only five pass attempts against RPOs on the year 一 though Oregon obviously has some say in the run/pass outcome with its defensive approach.
The strength of Indiana’s offense has been its passing attack with quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who has quickly adapted to Shanahan’s offense after transferring from Cal.
One of the reasons for Mendoza’s immediate success is the Hoosiers’ ability to protect their quarterback.
Let’s check out the pass protection battle based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Indiana: ranked 12th in pressure rate allowed
- Oregon: ranked 16th in pressure rate generated
It appears to be a fair fight, though Indiana likely has an edge due to its scheme.
Mendoza tends to get the ball out quickly and only takes a traditional dropback of three or more steps at a 43% rate, ranked 106th in the FBS.
Although Oregon has a strong pass rush unit, it has been significantly more productive against traditional dropbacks, as evidenced by these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Traditional dropbacks: 49% pressure rate, ranked 19th
- Non-traditional dropbacks: 26% pressure rate, ranked 53rd
Despite Indiana primarily leaning on the quick passing game, the downfield attack is still a critical part of the offense.
Outside the red zone, 26% of Indiana’s pass attempts have been 15 or more yards downfield, the nation’s 32nd-highest rate.
And on those deep throws, Mendoza takes a traditional dropback 75% of the time, so Oregon’s pass rush will still have the opportunity to disrupt the Hoosiers’ downfield attack at some crucial moments.
In the run game, Indiana appears to have an edge against Oregon based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Indiana: ranked 7th in yards before contact
- Oregon: ranked 85th in yards before contact allowed
- Indiana: ranked 31st in yards after contact
- Oregon: ranked 32nd in yards after contact allowed
Indiana relies heavily on 11 personnel (72% of its attempts), a formation that has created issues for the Ducks defense.
Oregon is allowing 5.3 yards per attempt against 11 personnel, which ranks 83rd.
So, how did the Ducks beat Penn State with these issues against the run?
Penn State tends to rely on heavier formations 一 53% of its handoffs have been in 12 or 21 personnel.
And in that game, only five of Kayton Allen and Nick Singleton’s 23 attempts were from 11 personnel, on which they gained 33 yards (shocking that James Franklin’s staff would mismanage the offensive play-calling, right?)
It’s also worth noting this is not a new issue for Oregon 一 the Ducks ranked 72nd against 11 personnel last year (5.0 yards per attempt).
The only good teams Oregon handled easily last year were Illinois and Michigan, two pro-style offenses that rely on heavy formations.
Whereas most other quality opponents, and some not-so-quality ones like Wisconsin, leaned on 11 personnel and were competitive against the Ducks (Wisconsin held a lead late into the fourth quarter).
So while Oregon does have a solid run defense, Indiana’s scheme appears to be designed to exploit some of its weaknesses.
When Oregon is on Offense
Oregon’s offense has been surprisingly well balanced this year under coordinator Will Stein, a shift from previous seasons.
Based on situational data from Sports Info Solutions, check out Oregon’s pass rate over expected during Stein’s three seasons with the Ducks:
- 2023 with Bo Nix: 11.7% above expected
- 2024 with Dillon Gabriel: 7.8% above expected
- 2025 with Dante Moore: 1.6% below expected
Nix and Gabriel were two of the most experienced quarterbacks in college football history, so the shift is likely due to a desire to put less on the shoulders of the inexperienced Moore.
We may see an increased pass rate as the season goes on, potentially starting with this game now that Moore has survived a tough road test against Penn State.
Another factor that may lead Stein to increase the pass rate is the production of Oregon’s offensive line, which should hold an edge in this matchup.
Take a look at the opponent-adjusted numbers in the pass protection battle via Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked 3rd in pressure rate allowed
- Indiana: ranked 31st in pressure rate generated
Moore has also done an exceptional job handling what little pressure he has seen, taking just one sack on the year.
When Moore has time in the pocket, expect him to take some shots downfield as he’s been one of the nation’s best downfield passers this year.
On throws of 15 or more yards, Moore has completed 54% of his attempts, ranked 13th in the FBS.
That’s somewhat concerning for Indiana, which has allowed a 46% completion rate at that depth.
Fortunately for the Hoosiers, they are expected to get star cornerback D'Angelo Ponds back after he missed their game at Iowa in Week 5.
In the run game, Oregon and Indiana appear relatively well matched.
Oregon runs a fairly balanced rushing attack in terms of lining up in spread or heavy formations, and Indiana is well-suited to slow down both.
Since Oregon slightly favors formations that lead to a light box (58% of handoffs are into a box with six or fewer defenders), let’s check out how these teams stack up in the run game with light boxes:
- Oregon: 5.7 yards per attempt, ranked 53rd
- Indiana: 4.1 yards per attempt, ranked 25th
Oregon would do well to stay in spread formations, as the Hoosiers run defense has been even nastier with a stacked box, allowing 0.1 yards before contact per attempt (ranked second) and just 2.9 yards per attempt (ranked 12th).
Due to its moderate success in the run game, Oregon has not been great at avoiding tough third-down situations.
The Ducks have faced third and long on 21% of their sets of downs, ranked 43rd, and that’s not entirely due to the Penn State game.
Even Northwestern forced the Ducks into a third and long at a 22% rate.
Final Thoughts on Oregon vs. Indiana Best Bets
Cignetti’s team came up short in big games last year, but this is a better Hoosiers squad, so let’s take the points and play Indiana against the spread.
Indiana should be able to run the ball on the Ducks, which should allow the Hoosiers to control the clock and keep this game close.
