This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out the final playoff game of the weekend to see if James Madison can be competitive as heavy underdogs against Oregon.
James Madison vs. Oregon, current line:
James Madison at Oregon Best Bet Prediction:
The Dukes are underrated and should be competitive early, so let’s take James Madison against the first-half spread.
- James Madison vs. Oregon, best line: James Madison +11.5 points (first half)
» Bet it now at Novig: James Madison +11.5 points (first half)
When James Madison is on Offense
James Madison runs a conservative, run-heavy offense under coordinator Dean Kennedy, who is in his second year in that role at the FBS level after having previously spent time in the same role on Bob Chesney’s staff at Holy Cross.
Chesney and Kennedy will both be headed to UCLA after their playoff run is over.
According to Campus2Canton, the Dukes run the ball at a rate 3.9% above expected based on situational data, a conservative approach likely influenced by the dominance of their defense.
James Madison’s run game has been nearly unstoppable relative to its Sun Belt competition and might have a chance against Oregon based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- James Madison: ranked 17th in yards before contact
- Oregon: ranked 29th in yards before contact allowed
- James Madison: ranked 23rd in yards after contact
- Oregon: ranked 22nd in yards after contact allowed
Using opponent-adjusted numbers helps to compare teams across conferences, but it doesn’t necessarily mean these units are as equal as the numbers indicate.
The best run defense JMU faced in the regular season was Louisville, so let’s also look at the Cardinals' run defense numbers to get a sense for how they compare to Oregon:
- Ranked 39th in yards before contact allowed
- Ranked 25th in yards after contact allowed
Louisville held James Madison running backs to a season low 3.8 yards per attempt on 18 carries in that contest.
Kennedy also appeared to have limited confidence in his running backs in that matchup, as backup quarterback Matthew Sluka was the team’s leading rusher with 21 carries for 83 yards.
Sluka and starter Alonza Barnett III, who is also a capable runner, were often on the field together in an effort to catch the Louisville defense off guard.
However, it should be noted that starting running back Wayne Knight had not yet emerged as the force he has been late this season.
Although JMU’s rushing attack wasn’t great in that game against Louisville, the deception worked well enough for the Dukes to slow the game and control the ball for just over 37 minutes 一 a strategy they will undoubtedly attempt against Oregon.
It’s also worth noting that Oregon is not great at creating early contact against the run.
The Ducks contact the ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage just 41% of the time, ranked 73rd, according to Sports Info Solutions.
And even when the Ducks do make early contact, they’re converting that into stops at or behind the line of scrimmage just 34% of the time, ranked 106th.
If Oregon can’t create early contact and force negative plays, it will increase JMU’s chances of moving the chains, bleeding the clock, and shortening the game.
So as long as the Dukes can stay close, they will run the ball and should have some amount of success, but momentum could swing dramatically if Oregon builds a large enough lead to force James Madison into a pass-heavy approach.
The one area where James Madison is clearly overmatched is in pass protection, evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- James Madison: ranked 79th in pressure rate allowed
- Oregon: ranked 4th in pressure rate generated
This is problematic due to JMU’s pro-style passing game in which Barnett takes a traditional dropback 59% of the time, the nation’s 27th-highest rate.
Against traditional dropbacks, Oregon ranks 11th in pressure rate (50%) and 13th in yards per attempt allowed (6.2).
Barnett also struggles as a downfield passer and will likely find even more trouble in that area stepping up to this level in competition.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Barnett is completing 49% of his throws at 10 or more yards downfield, ranked 59th.
However, only 65% of those throws have been catchable, ranked 110th, an indication that his completion rate has been elevated by his receivers running wide open against lesser defenses, which is obviously unlikely to be a common occurrence against the Ducks.
So while JMU has the potential to keep this game close with its rushing attack, it could quickly spiral out of control if forced to lean too heavily on Barnett’s arm.
When Oregon is on Offense
Oregon runs a balanced offense under coordinator Will Stein, who is preparing to take the head coaching job at Kentucky once the Ducks’ playoff run is over.
Despite the balanced nature of the offense, the Ducks might try to lean more on the run game due to a long list of injuries on the depth chart at receiver.
In the season finale against Washington, Oregon had seven inactive wide receivers, most notably star freshman Dakorien Moore.
Running the ball might not be easy against this James Madison defensive front, however, based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked 8th in yards before contact
- James Madison: ranked 2nd in yards before contact allowed
- Oregon: ranked 7th in yards after contact
- James Madison: ranked 21st in yards after contact allowed
Although it’s hard to say for certain if James Madison can maintain its success against this level of competition, we can look to the Louisville game for clues, so let’s also check out the Cardinals' numbers:
- Ranked 7th in yards before contact
- Ranked 3rd in yards after contact
Louisville running backs gained 118 yards on 23 carries against the Dukes (5.1 yards per attempt), but 78 of those yards came on one breakaway run by Isaac Brown.
So on 22 of those 23 attempts, Louisville ball carriers averaged 1.8 yards per attempt, providing strong evidence that JMU’s run defense can be competitive against the Ducks.
Louisville running backs were also hit before crossing the line of scrimmage on 13 of their 23 carries in that game (57%), the third-highest rate of their season.
That 57% early contact rate was right in line with the Dukes’ season average (55%), which was the third-highest rate in the nation.
So while JMU might lack in overall talent, its ability to perform against a run game as strong as Louisville without any noticeable dropoff, save for one long run, indicates there’s enough talent in the defensive front to be competitive.
JMU’s defense might also have the ability to disrupt Oregon’s passing attack due to a strong pass rush unit.
Check out the opponent-adjusted numbers in the pass protection battle via Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked 5th in pressure rate allowed
- James Madison: ranked 3rd in pressure rate generated
Louisville’s offensive line is not as dominant as Oregon’s (ranked 32nd), but that meeting can still provide some context.
It’s certainly noteworthy that James Madison’s 44% pressure rate generated against Louisville was the highest that Cardinal quarterbacks faced all season.
A potential way for Oregon to expose the James Madison defense is with the quick passing game.
Oregon uses quick dropbacks (zero/one-stop dropbacks and RPOs) 34% of the time, and the Dukes have been inconsistent defending those types of pass plays.
Against quick dropbacks, JMU still generates an impressive 34% pressure rate (ranked 2nd), but allows 6.7 yards per attempt (ranked 71st).
Injuries could be a factor in this area, however, as Moore has been Oregon’s most reliable weapon on those quick dropbacks, averaging 10.4 yards per target.
Tight end Kenyon Sadiq has also been targeted on those plays at a high rate, but is less explosive and averages just 6.7 yards per target.
Expect the Ducks to take some deep shots as well, as 26% of their throws outside the red zone have been at least 15 yards downfield.
Oregon has completed 59.7% of those throws (ranked 3rd), but JMU is only allowing a 29.5% completion rate at that depth (ranked 5th), per Sports Info Solutions.
Once again, the Louisville game provides some evidence to support the legitimacy of JMU’s defense as the Cardinals were 0 for 4 on throws of 15 or more yards.
Final Thoughts on Oregon vs. James Madison Best Bets
James Madison should be competitive in this game, but rather than play the full game spread, let's take James Madison on the first half line at +11.5 points.
There’s a lot of evidence to support James Madison’s defense and run game having what it takes to make this game interesting, but the lack of a passing attack is concerning.
If I had to bet the full game spread, I would take the Dukes, but I’m worried Oregon could bury them late once JMU is forced to turn to a pass-heavy approach.
