This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at the marquee matchup of Week 0 with Farmageddon in Europe as Kansas State and Iowa State square off in Dublin, Ireland.
Iowa State vs Kansas State, current line:
Iowa State vs. Kansas State Best Bet Prediction:
A long road trip to Ireland can sometimes lead to chaos, but let's trust Chris Klieman's squad and play Kansas State against the spread.
- Iowa State vs Kansas State, current line: Kansas State -3
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When Iowa State is on Offense
Iowa State returns eight starters on offense from a unit that ranked 41st in scoring offense a season ago (31.1 points per game).
Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser also returns for his second year as the Cyclones’ playcaller.
Mouser ran a conservative scheme last year, with a pass rate just 0.6% above average based on situation data, per Campus2Canton.
Leaning more into the run game during Rocco Becht’s two years as the quarterback has been a departure from the scheme run during the Hunter Dekker and Brock Purdy eras.
Take a look at the Cyclones’ pass rate over expected from the last six years:
- 2024: +0.6%
- 2023: +1.5%
- 2022: +7.6%
- 2021: +4.3%
- 2020: +1.1% (Breece Hall led the nation in rushing)
- 2019: +7.9%
Although the team likely has more faith in Becht entering his third year, the loss of star receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins to the NFL is a good reason to believe this scheme continues to trend in a more run-heavy direction.
Prior to the bowl game, Noel and Higgins commanded a 61% target share overall and a 69% target share on throws of 10 or more yards, per Sports Info Solutions.
Iowa State added two key transfers to the depth chart at receiver: Xavier Townsend (from UCF) and Chase Sowell (from East Carolina).
Townsend was a starter at UCF but only played four games last year before redshirting.
He likely takes on Noel’s role in the slot, but it will be a significant downgrade.
Sowell is a 6-foot-4 downfield weapon who will attempt to replace Higgins, but he will need to clean up a serious issue with drops to even approach Higgins’ production.
Last year at ECU, Sowell generated an embarrassing 23% drop rate per Sports Info Solutions.
Higgins’ drop rate was just 3.8%.
Due to these serious questions at wide receiver, we should assume Iowa State leans into veteran running backs Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III in the run game.
Based on opponent-adjusted numbers, here’s a look at how these teams stacked up in the run game last year:
- Iowa State: ranked 75th in yards before contact gained
- Kansas State: ranked 44th in yards before contact allowed
- Iowa State: ranked 85th in yards after contact gained
- Kansas State: ranked 33rd in yards after contact allowed
Iowa State returns four starters to the offensive line, but that doesn’t necessarily help the run game in a significant way due to the Cyclones’ conservative scheme.
Last year, starting running back Hansen ran into a box with seven or more defenders 90% of the time, the highest rate among power conference ball carriers.
Kansas State runs a 3-3-5 defense led by coordinator Joe Klanderman.
Only five starters return, but linebackers Austin Romaine and Desmond Purnell are back and will be critical to the Wildcats’ run defense.
Kansas State’s aggressive defense also excels at making plays in the backfield, as it stopped opposing running backs for zero or negative yards on 24% of attempts last year, the nation’s 10th-highest rate.
That’s a problem for Iowa State, which allowed contact in the backfield 40% of the time (ranked 68th), per Sports Info Solutions.
Due to the Wildcats’ ability to create negative plays, they excelled at forcing opponents into tough down-and-distance situations.
Kansas State forced opponents into third and long on 29% of sets of downs, the nation’s sixth-highest rate.
Iowa State was relatively effective in third-and-long situations last year, converting at the 11th-best rate (31%), but it remains to be seen if that can be replicated without their top two weapons.
When Kansas State is on Offense
Kansas State returns six starters from the nation’s 46th-ranked scoring offense, most notably quarterback Avery Johnson.
The most significant change to the offense is new coordinator Matt Wells, former head coach at Texas Tech and Utah State.
Wells takes over for Conor Riley, an ill-advised hire prior to the 2024 season, who left to become a position coach for the Dallas Cowboys.
Riley was promoted last offseason to replace Collin Klein, who took the coordinator job at Texas A&M.
Riley had previously spent the majority of his career as Chris Klieman‘s offensive line coach and had never called plays.
The combination of Riley’s inexperience with a redshirt-freshman quarterback was a bad mix and led to a surprisingly inefficient and inconsistent offense, which has been uncharacteristic of Kansas State under Klieman.
Although Kansas State has been known for its rushing attack under Klieman, this year’s squad might become more pass-heavy under Wells.
During his tenure at Texas Tech, Wells’ team threw the ball at a rate 6.7% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton.
Kansas State’s rate sat 0.8% below expected in 2024.
Although Johnson had some struggles as a passer early in the year, he made progress last season.
Based on route-adjusted data, Johnson ended 2024 with an on-target rate 0.3% above expected overall and 5.7% above expected when throwing to explosive routes (routes which average 20 or more yards per reception: go, post, corner, fade, deep cross, seam), per Sports Info Solutions.
Johnson will also benefit from the return of leading receiver Jayce Brown, who commanded a 20% target share overall and 29% on throws of 10 or more yards.
The only potential hiccup in a more pass-heavy approach is the offensive line, which returns just two starters.
Although the Wildcats did dip into the portal to address offensive line concerns, neither of the two starters added from the portal has extensive starting experience.
Fortunately for Johnson, Iowa State does not boast a dominant pass rush.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, the Cyclones ranked 67th in pressure rate generated last year and might take a step back this season.
Leading pass-rushers Joey Peterson and J.R. Singleton are gone, replaced by Yale transfer Tamatoa McDonough and Vontroy Malone from Tulsa.
The Cyclones do, however, have talent returning in the secondary, most notably Jontez Williams.
Based on route-adjusted data, Williams allowed a catch rate 35% below expected last year, the second-best rate in the Big 12, per Sports Info Solutions.
If Williams can neutralize Brown, it could disrupt the Wildcats' passing attack.
However, Kansas State is likely to hold an edge in the ground game as well based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from last season:
- Kansas State: ranked seventh in yards before contact gained
- Iowa State: ranked 100th in yards before contact allowed
Although the Wildcats are almost certain to take a step back with an inexperienced offensive line, the downgrade is still unlikely to close the gap given Iowa State’s lack of offseason additions to the defensive side of the ball.
It’s worth noting that Iowa State does get star linebacker Caleb Bacon back from injury (he played just one game last year), which should help clean up some mistakes on defense.
Iowa State ranked 127th in missed tackle rate against the run last year, allowing a broken/missed tackle once every 4.1 carries.
The explosive Dylan Edwards and the Kansas State rushing attack will be a tough test for Bacon and the Cyclones, who struggled to limit big plays.
Iowa State ranked 121st in explosive rush rate allowed, giving up 10 or more yards on 16.4% of attempts.
Final Thoughts on Kansas State vs. Iowa State Best Bets
A more experienced Johnson and a veteran play-caller should lead to a much-improved offense for the Wildcats, so let’s play Kansas State against the spread.
If you’re skeptical because of Iowa State’s 29-21 victory last year against the Wildcats, take a closer look at how that game played out.
Johnson fumbled on the opening snap, leading to a short-field touchdown for the Cyclones. Then another Kansas State fumble in the second quarter led to another easy touchdown.
The Wildcats also missed a field goal and took a safety on an intentional grounding penalty by Johnson in the end zone.
However, when not shooting themselves in the foot, the Wildcats generally had their way with the Cyclones, averaging 6.2 yards per play compared to 4.2 for Iowa State.
Kansas State has been one of the most disciplined teams in the country under Klieman, so such a series of mistakes in a critical game is unlikely to be repeated now that Johnson is a year older and being led by a proven play-caller in Wells.
