This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at the battle of Death Valleys as LSU pays a visit to Clemson on Saturday night.
Clemson vs. LSU, current line:
LSU at Clemson Best Bet Prediction:
Dabo Swinney‘s squad has come up small in big games more often than not in recent years, so let's roll with Brian Kelly and take LSU against the spread.
- Clemson vs. LSU, current line: LSU +4
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When LSU is on Offense
LSU is only returning four players on offense, but expectations for the unit remain high with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier back for another year.
Nussemeier will have to build upon last year’s success with an entirely new cast of pass catchers, however, as his top five leading receivers from a season ago are either in the NFL or transferred elsewhere.
LSU is a program that tends to reload quickly at receiver, and this year should be no different.
Chris Hilton Jr, Zavion Thomas, and Aaron Anderson all return and are expected to compete for targets.
Joining them are transfers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky).
So, despite the lack of continuity, this should be one of the deeper receiving corps in the SEC.
The biggest question mark for LSU on the offensive side of the ball is the offensive line, which returns just one starter.
However, the Tigers did add some experience from the portal in the form of Braelin Moore (center from Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (guard from Northwestern).
LSU’s offensive line was not dominant last year, so if these changes lead to regression in the unit’s performance, it could be a problem for the offense.
In 2024, LSU ranked 43rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
Nussmeier is a pocket passer and lacks the mobility of a typical quarterback, so offensive line play is more critical to LSU’s success than some programs.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Nussmeier took a traditional dropback of three or more steps at the nation’s ninth-highest rate last year (64%).
Clemson’s defense has plenty of high-end talent to cause problems for LSU’s offensive line, most notably edge rusher T.J. Parker and defensive tackle Peter Woods 一 two potential top-10 NFL draft picks.
Despite the talent, Clemson’s pass rush unit was not anywhere close to the sum of its parts last season.
Based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Clemson ranked 102nd in pressure rate generated.
The lack of a pass rush was particularly problematic for Clemson in the College Football Playoff when they generated a pitiful 17% pressure rate against Texas.
In fact, in Clemson’s biggest games of the year (Georgia, Texas, Louisville, South Carolina, SMU), the Tigers generated a pressure rate over 25% just once (versus South Carolina).
Due to the returning talent and offseason additions, maybe Clemson’s pass rush unit can elevate its play.
Shockingly, Dabo Swinney added a few transfers this offseason, and two of them are expected to start on defense: defensive end Will Heldt (Purdue) and linebacker Jeremiah Alexander (Alabama).
Heldt generated a respectable 9.6% pressure rate last season, which could certainly improve now that he isn’t the guy who will draw the most attention from opponents.
The turnover on LSU’s offensive line could potentially cause problems in the run game as well, although last year’s unit already struggled in that area.
Fortunately for LSU, this was also an area of weakness for Clemson.
Take a look at the run game matchup based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- LSU: ranked 107th in yards before contact gained
- Clemson: ranked 101st in yards before contact allowed
Clemson wasn’t any better at preventing yards after contact, ranking 117th.
It was those issues that likely led Swinney to finally dip his toe into the transfer portal with the additions of Heldt and Alexander.
Swinney also brought in defensive coordinator Tom Allen from Penn State in an effort to get things turned around in the run game.
Attacking Clemson on the ground early in this game would be the obvious choice, but it would require LSU to reverse course on its offensive game plan from a season ago.
According to Campus2Canton, LSU’s pass rate was 12.9% above expected based on situational data last year, the highest rate in the SEC.
As a result, LSU probably keeps the ball in the hands of its best player (Nussmeier).
Should Clemson fall behind early, however, the return of its swiss cheese run defense could potentially allow LSU to control the game on the ground in the second half.
When Clemson is on Offense
Clemson returns eight players on offense who made at least six starts a season ago, most notably quarterback Cade Klubnik and his three leading receivers, Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco, and T.J. Moore.
The Tigers also return offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, who enters his third year with the program.
The familiarity between Riley and Klubnik is reason to believe this pass-heavy offense can continue to grow.
According to Campus2Canton, Clemson threw the ball at a rate 9.3% above expected last year based on situational data.
Despite the pass-heavy nature of the offense, it’s a relatively conservative passing attack which tends to rely on quick underneath passes 一 much like the other Riley’s scheme at USC.
In 2024, Clemson only threw the ball 15 or more yards downfield 22.2 % of the time outside the red zone, ranked 83rd in the FBS per Sports Info Solutions.
When Clemson does attack downfield, Klubnik is capable of rising to the occasion.
His 45% completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards ranked 30th.
The Tigers may want to attack downfield early in this game to test the LSU secondary.
LSU’s secondary was a mess for the second consecutive year last season.
It allowed a 43.7% completion rate at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 91st.
However, there’s reason to expect LSU’s defense to elevate its play this year.
Defensive coordinator Blake Baker is in his second year at the program after joining from Missouri, where he built a surprisingly strong defense with less access to elite talent.
Respected secondary coach Corey Raymond is also in his second year back at the program.
When Kelly first joined LSU, he controversially did not retain Raymond on his staff, and a quality secondary immediately disintegrated into one of the worst in the SEC.
LSU also hit the portal hard, adding defensive backs Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech), Tamarcus Cooley (NC State), and A.J. Haulcy (Houston).
Delane is expected to be LSU’s top cornerback and should help the secondary’s downfield pass defense.
Last year with the Hokies, Delane allowed a 28% catch rate when targeted at 10 or more yards downfield, ranked 16th out of 102 power-conference qualifiers per Sports Info Solutions.
Clemson has the raw talent at receiver to compete with LSU’s secondary, but Moore and Wesco will need to elevate their play during their sophomore years.
Take a look at the route-adjusted catch rate for Clemson’s top receivers last season, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Williams: 5.6% (ranked 10th out of 42 ACC wide receivers)
- Wesco: -5.8% (ranked 38th)
- Moore: -9.8% (ranked 40th)
LSU may also be able to disrupt the Clemson passing attack with its pass rush.
This would have been a lopsided matchup last year, based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Clemson: ranked 61st in pressure rate allowed
- LSU: ranked first in pressure rate generated
LSU lost leading pass rushers Sai'vion Jones and Bradyn Swinson to the NFL, but this was a deep unit for the Tigers 一 10 players recorded double-digit pressures.
Harold Perkins is also back for LSU after missing much of last year with a torn ACL.
Perkins led LSU with a 16% pressure rate during his last full season in 2023.
Clemson’s mediocre offensive line performance last year is nothing new; it has never been a strength of the Tigers under Swinney.
However, Clemson does return four starters from the unit, so there is the potential for growth.
In the run game, Clemson appears to be betting on Adam Randall, a converted wide receiver who has just four career carries.
Randall is listed at 6-foot-2 and 235 pounds, giving him a nearly identical physical profile to Phil Mafah, who is now in the NFL.
It’s tough to predict how Randall will fare after the position change, but his offensive line should hold an edge in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Clemson: ranked 37th in yards before contact
- LSU: ranked 52nd in yards after contact allowed
With Clemson returning most of its offensive line and LSU replacing some key players, this gap in production could grow.
Final Thoughts on Clemson vs. LSU Best Bets
Given Clemson’s issues in big games last year, let’s trust Brian Kelly’s squad and take LSU against the spread.
Clemson played five games against strong opponents last year:
- 34-3 loss vs. Georgia (neutral site)
- 33-21 loss vs. Louisville (home)
- 17-14 loss vs. South Carolina (home)
- 34-41 win vs. SMU (ACC title game)
- 38-24 loss at Texas (CFP)
Pittsburgh also had a good season last year, but when Clemson faced them, the Panthers were without quarterback Eli Holstein. Even then, Clemson needed a last-minute touchdown to pull out the win.
So until we see Clemson turn the corner again and start taking care of quality opponents at a higher rate, I’m selling Clemson against talented teams like LSU.
