This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at a classic rivalry game between Miami and Florida State in Tallahassee.
Miami vs. Florida State, current line:
Miami at Florida State Best Bet Prediction:
The Canes defense looks like one of the best in the country, so let’s play Miami against the spread.
- Miami vs. Florida State, current line: Miami – 4.5
» Bet it now: Miami -4.5 points
When Miami is on Offense
Miami runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator Shannon Dawson, though not to the same extreme as last year with Cam Ward at quarterback.
Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, Miami’s pass rate has dropped from 10.3% over expected in 2024 to 5.0% above expected this season with Carson Beck taking snaps.
Since Beck is considerably less mobile than Ward, he needs to be supported by a strong offensive line.
Fortunately for Beck, Mario Cristobal has been one of the best offensive line coaches in the college game over the last 25 years, and his offensive line coach, Alex Mirabal, has been by his side, helping produce strong lines for nearly a decade dating back to their time together at Oregon.
Based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Miami should hold a slight edge in the pass protection battle:
- Miami: ranked 3rd in pressure rate allowed
- Florida State: ranked 17th in pressure rate generated
Since Beck is less mobile, he takes a traditional dropback of three or more steps at a relatively high rate (63%; average is 50%), and this is where Miami’s offensive line demonstrates its dominance.
The Canes have allowed the nation’s lowest pressure rate on traditional dropbacks (22%), per Sports Info Solutions.
Florida State is likely to blitz Beck in an effort to create disruption 一 the ‘Noles have blitzed 37% of the time this year 一 but Miami is likely up for the challenge.
Miami’s 17.6% pressure rate allowed on blitzes is the second lowest in the nation.
If Miami can protect Beck, the Canes should be able to throw against this Seminoles’ secondary.
When Florida State fails to get pressure, it allows a 67% completion rate (ranked 51st) and 7.1 yards per attempt (ranked 46th), per Sports Info Solutions.
In the run game, it should be a relatively even battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Miami: ranked 47th in yards before contact
- Florida State: ranked 39th in yards before contact allowed
- Miami: ranked 55th in yards after contact
- Florida State: ranked 53rd in yards after contact allowed
There’s a chance Miami’s run game improved, however, as starter Jordan Lyle was injured just a few plays into the season opener against Notre Dame and might be back for this contest.
225-pound Mark Fletcher is a strong backup with prior starting experience, but he’s not as explosive as Lyle and probably better suited for the complementary power-back role.
The somewhat inconsistent performance of the run game has created occasional problems for the offense.
The Hurricanes have been forced into third-and-long situations on 22% of their sets of downs, ranked 64th.
When Florida State is on Offense
Florida State leans on a run-heavy offense under coordinator Gus Malzahn, who joined the Seminoles staff this season after previously serving as UCF’s head coach.
According to Campus2Canton, the Seminoles throw the ball at a rate 11% below expected based on situational data.
Arguably, no one is better at designing and calling plays to put his ball carriers in favorable situations than Malzahn.
Due to Malzahn’s ability to force the defense into light boxes, Florida State might have an edge in the run game based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Florida State: ranked 8th in yards before contact
- Miami: ranked 35th in yards before contact allowed
Florida State ball carriers have thrived against light boxes, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, ranked 12th in the nation.
However, most of that production came against Kent State and Virginia 一 the Noles averaged a modest 4.4 yards per attempt against Alabama’s light boxes.
Miami has also excelled at avoiding busts in its run defense, as opposing running backs have gained three or more yards before contact on just 18% of attempts, the nation’s sixth-lowest rate.
Florida State is expected to get starting running back Roydell Williams back this week.
Williams started the season opener against Alabama but has not taken the field since due to injury.
Gavin Sawchuk, a transfer from Oklahoma, took over with freshman Ousmane Kromah also contributing.
Take a look at the run game battle in terms of gaining or preventing yards after contact based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Florida State: ranked 72nd
- Miami: ranked 38th
In the passing game, Florida State has explosive potential, gaining 20 or more yards at the nation’s sixth-highest rate (17.6%).
The key to slowing down this potent Florida State offense is the blitz, which Virginia figured out last week in its upset victory over the Seminoles.
Virginia blitzed Thomas Castellanos on 41% of his dropbacks while generating an impressive 51% pressure rate in the game, per Sports Info Solutions.
Castellanos was just 5 for 13 against the blitz versus Virginia while throwing 2 interceptions.
On the season, Castellanos ranks 114th out of 133 qualified quarterbacks in positive EPA rate against the blitz 一 and this is nothing new, as he ranked 132nd out of 145 a season ago at Boston College.
This is a weakness Miami will certainly attempt to exploit as it plays directly into one of its primary defensive strategies.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Miami ranks 25th in blitz rate (35.5%).
However, the Canes only rank 126th in pressure rate off the blitz, a concerning trend, but also one that’s difficult to explain and likely the result of a small sample size.
Miami ranks ninth in pressure rate on non-blites, anchored by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain, who rank second and third, respectively, in pressure rate in the ACC.
Given the talent on Miami’s defense 一 and the fact that Florida State ranks 130th in pressure rate allowed against the blitz 一 expect the Canes to get pressure on Castellanos in much the same way as Virginia.
When Castellanos does have time to throw, expect him to take some shots down the field.
Outside the red zone, 30% of Florida State’s pass attempts have been at least 15 yards downfield, primarily targeted at Duce Robinson, a transfer from USC who has been a one-man show in the Seminoles’ receiving corps.
Opponents have completed 42% of their throws against Miami at that depth, which only ranks 64th.
However, that rate might be misleading because Miami has excelled at preventing quarterbacks from even getting off their downfield throws.
Quarterbacks are throwing downfield 52% less often against Miami than against other teams, the eighth-best rate in the nation.
That trend is counterintuitive given how frequently Miami has been playing with a significant lead, which typically encourages more downfield throws.
As a result, it speaks volumes about Miami’s ability to disrupt the offense’s plans.
Final Thoughts on Florida State vs. Miami Best Bets
Florida State is likely to struggle putting points on the board against this nasty Canes defense, so take the road favorite and play Miami against the spread.
That said, I’ll always add this caveat when recommending Miami: it’s risky to bet on Cristobal, one of the worst game-managers the sport has ever seen.
At least once a year, Cristobal costs his team with his inability to handle clock management and fourth-down decisions, so be aware of the risk.
In this game, however, I’m willing to trust Miami’s suffocating defense against a mistake-prone quarterback.
