This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a first-round playoff battle between Texas A&M and Miami in College Station.
Miami vs. Texas A&M, current line:
Miami at Texas A&M Best Bet Prediction:
The Canes appear to hold an edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, so let’s play Miami against the spread.
- Miami vs. Texas A&M, best line: Miami +3.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Miami +3.5 points
When Miami is on Offense
Miami runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator Shannon Dawson, with a pass rate 5.5% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton.
The Hurricanes have been able to sustain that strategy regardless of the matchup due to their dominant offensive line 一 a staple of any Mario Cristobal team.
Although the Aggies have a strong pass rush, Miami likely still holds an edge in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Miami: ranked 1st in pressure rate allowed
- Texas A&M: ranked 17th in pressure rate generated
Miami’s ability to protect Carson Beck on traditional dropbacks 一 which accounts for 56% of the team’s pass plays 一 demonstrates just how dominant the offensive line has been this season.
The Hurricanes are allowing pressure on just 21% of traditional dropbacks, the lowest rate in the country by a wide margin (next lowest is 29%, average is 42%).
Texas A&M will be the Hurricanes' toughest test, however, based on the Aggies' performance against traditional dropbacks:
- 51% pressure rate, ranked 6th
- 6.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 32nd
If the Aggies can’t pressure Beck, they’re in trouble due to Miami’s ability to produce big plays in the passing game.
Miami ranks 26th in the country in explosive pass rate, gaining 20 or more yards on 12% of pass plays.
The Aggie defense ranks 72nd.
Despite Miami’s tendency to lean on traditional dropbacks, which creates time to attack downfield, the Hurricanes primarily lean on underneath passes.
According to Sports Info Solutions, 57% of Miami’s pass attempts have been five or fewer yards downfield, the nation’s seventh-highest rate.
That tendency benefits Texas A&M, which excels at closing quickly on those plays, allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt (ranked third) and 5.1 yards per reception (ranked second).
Miami only throws 15 or more yards downfield 21% of the time (ranked 94th), but it should have success against the Aggie defense when Beck elects to attack downfield.
Outside the red zone, Beck is completing 50% of throws at that depth (ranked 23rd), while the Aggies are allowing a 47% completion rate (ranked 108th).
However, one of the reasons Miami doesn’t attack downfield more frequently is likely a lack of trust in Beck’s decision-making skills.
On throws at that depth, Beck also has an 11.3% interception rate, the 11th highest in the country.
Although Beck protected the ball well early in his career, he’s now thrown 22 interceptions over the last two seasons.
There’s nothing fluky about Beck’s turnover trend, either.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, the defense made a play on the ball 22% of the time, the nation’s 14th-highest rate per Sports Info Solutions.
Fortunately for Miami, few teams are worse at locating the ball than Texas A&M.
The Aggies rank 102nd in ball-hawk rate overall and 117th on throws 10 or more yards downfield.
So Texas A&M’s 3 interceptions, the second fewest in the country, are also no fluke.
In an effort to protect the ball, Miami might be able to turn to its run game, especially now that the backfield appears to be healthy.
Due to a combination of its formations and a lack of fear of Beck’s downfield passing, Miami running backs face a stacked box at an above average rate.
The ability to stack the box won’t help A&M, however, as the Aggies rank 131st in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box (5.9), per Sports Info Solutions.
Another reason teams tend to stack the box against Miami is the Canes’ tendency to run between the tackles, incentivizing defenses to put an extra defender near the line in the middle of the field.
This is also a strategy that works well against the Aggies, who are allowing 5.6 yards per attempt between the tackles, ranked 115th.
Another factor in both the run and pass game is Miami’s use of RPOs.
The Canes use RPOs 27% of the time, the 31st-highest rate.
That is yet another trend that could cause problems for the Aggies, who are giving up 6.2 yards per play against RPOs, ranked 103rd.
RPO defense was an issue in the Aggies’ loss to Texas when the Longhorns gained an average of 8.9 yards per play on 16 RPO plays.
Based on all these numbers, it looks like A&M is likely to get gashed in the run game, to struggle defending the deep ball, and unlikely to capitalize on Beck’s turnover tendency 一 an unfortunate combination that should lead to success for Miami’s offense.
When Texas A&M is on Offense
Texas A&M runs a conservative but slightly pass-heavy offense under coordinator Collin Klein, who is now the Kansas State head coach but is staying with the Aggies through the playoffs.
For A&M to have success against the Hurricane defense, they will need to protect quarterback Marcel Reed, who takes traditional dropbacks at a high rate and tends to hold the ball longer than average.
Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions, the pass protection battle should be a good one:
- Texas A&M: ranked 7th in pressure rate allowed
- Miami: ranked 5th in pressure rate generated
Looking specifically at traditional dropbacks, which Reed uses at a 59% rate, the battle still appears even:
- Texas A&M: 29% pressure rate allowed, ranked 2nd
- Miami: 56% pressure rate generated, ranked 1st
Despite leaning on traditional dropbacks, which creates more time in the pocket, A&M typically attacks underneath and lets Mario Craver and KC Concepcion do their damage after the catch.
The Aggies throw five or fewer yards downfield on 50% of their pass plays while averaging 7.0 yards per attempt on those throws (ranked fifth) and 9.5 yards per reception (ranked second).
The underneath passing game is a good strategy to employ against the Canes' aggressive defense, and it has been a relative weakness of the unit.
On those short throws, Miami is allowing 4.9 yards per attempt (ranked 44th) and 6.7 yards per reception (ranked 57th).
Finding success on those short, easy throws will be critical for A&M because the matchup in the run game is likely to be more of a challenge.
Check out these opponent-adjusted stats on the run game matchup from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas A&M: ranked 18th in yards before contact
- Miami: ranked 27th in yards before contact allowed
- Texas A&M: ranked 71st in yards after contact
- Miami: ranked 30th in yards after contact allowed
Due to their tendency to line up in heavier formations, Aggie running backs have faced a stacked box 62% of the time, the 22nd-highest rate in the country.
That is potentially a problematic trend against a Hurricane defense allowing just 3.8 yards per attempt with a stacked box, ranked 34th.
The health of running back Le’Veon Moss could also be a factor in this game.
Moss hasn’t played since early October against Florida, but he is trying to return for this contest.
It would certainly help A&M’s depth to get Moss back in the mix, but Rueben Owens II has produced virtually identical numbers filling in, so Moss’ return should not dramatically alter our expectation of A&M’s success on the ground.
If Miami can limit A&M’s rushing attack, it could put a little too much on Reed’s shoulders.
While he’s having a solid year, he has not fared well in obvious passing situations.
Texas A&M has only converted 18% of its third-and-long situations, ranked 94th.
That’s a red flag against a Miami defense forcing third-and-longs at the nation’s ninth-highest rate.
Final Thoughts on Texas A&M vs. Miami Best Bets
This will be a tough road environment for the Canes, but a late-morning local kickoff time helps, so let's take the points and bet Miami against the spread.
Texas A&M’s 11-0 start might have been fool's gold, especially considering its best win came early in the season when Notre Dame was dealing with some serious issues on the defensive side of the ball.
Miami appears to have an edge on both sides of the ball, and as long as Cristobal can stay out of his own way, the Canes appear to be in good shape to pull off an upset.
