This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out the game of the week between Michigan and Oklahoma.
Michigan at Oklahoma, current line:
Michigan at Oklahoma Best Bet Prediction:
Expect both offenses to take a major step forward this season, so let’s bet the over at 44.5 points 一 though you might want to wait until closer to kickoff as this number has been trending down (opened at 47.5).
- Michigan vs. Oklahoma, current line: over 44.5 points
» Bet it now: over 45.5 points
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When Michigan is on Offense
Michigan returns eight players who made at least six starts on the offensive side of the ball a season ago, but even the returning starters were replaced at a high rate.
Last week against New Mexico, only four of those eight started for the Wolverines.
The most notable change was five-star true freshman Bryce Underwood taking over at quarterback, which could dramatically change the look of this Michigan offense.
Under Jim Harbaugh and again last year under Sherrone Moore, Michigan had been an ultra-conservative, run-oriented offense.
According to Campus2Canton, Michigan’s pass rate was 8.1% below expected last season based on situational data.
In Underwood’s first career start, however, that rate jumped to 10.3% above expected.
In addition to having a more dynamic weapon at quarterback, new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey likely has had an impact on the direction of the offense.
Moore is a former offensive line coach, and those guys tend to run the ball at higher rates.
Lindsey tends to take a more pass-heavy approach and relies on spread formations, another drastic change for Michigan’s offense.
Most recently, Lindsey was Mack Brown’s offensive coordinator at North Carolina, but he previously had multiple stints as Guz Malzahn’s coordinator at Auburn and UCF.
We probably shouldn’t assume Michigan maintains a pass-heavy offense moving forward, however.
New Mexico was a tune-up game for this showdown with Oklahoma, and there was added incentive to get Underwood some quality reps as a passer before his first real test.
Perhaps the more surprising development within Michigan’s offense, beyond the pass rate, was how Michigan used Underwood.
Although Underwood was recruited as a dual-threat quarterback 一 247Sports compared him to Vince Young 一 he did not have a single rush attempt against New Mexico (excluding sacks).
Underwood also didn’t fare well when asked to roll out of the pocket.
On designed rollouts, Underwood completed just 1 of 4 passes and took a sack.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Underwood was 4 for 10 for 50 yards and 2 sacks when leaving the pocket 一 not ideal, especially considering his lack of scrambling for positive yards.
We also don’t know how Underwood will hold up against pressure, as he faced a modest 21% pressure rate against the Lobos.
In seven dropbacks versus pressure, he was 2 for 5 for 19 yards and 2 sacks.
This is where Oklahoma could potentially cause problems for Underwood and the Wolverines.
Check out the pass-protection battle based on these 2024 opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Michigan: ranked 53rd in pressure rate allowed
- Oklahoma: ranked 8th in pressure rate generated
Although Michigan only allowed a 21% pressure rate in its opener, that’s actually a bit of a red flag considering New Mexico ranked dead last in the FBS in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated a season ago 一 the Lobos' average pressure rate generated in 2024 was only 19%.
Oklahoma’s pass rush should remain one of the top units in the sport, as it’s often a strength of Brent Venables' teams.
The Sooners return their top two pass rushers, R Mason Thomas and Gracen Halton.
Oklahoma also added Marvin Jones Jr, who generated a strong 13.7% pressure rate at Florida State a season ago.
Another factor in the passing game is Michigan’s lack of talent.
The Wolverines' only notable addition was Donaven McCulley, a former quarterback who transferred from Indiana.
McCulley was a starter for Indiana in 2023 but almost immediately drew criticism for his performance in practices from new head coach Curt Cignetti in 2024 and was buried on the depth chart before leaving the program in October.
Michigan’s leading receiver in Week 1 was tight end Marlin Klein, a 6-foot-6 weapon with decent athleticism, though he’s no Colston Loveland.
The run game is where Lindsey’s input could make the biggest difference for Michigan, though that didn’t hold against New Mexico.
Before Lindsey joined the program, Moore liked to use heavy formations in the run game, allowing defenses to stack the box at a high rate.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Michigan running backs faced a stacked box 71% of the time last year, the fifth-highest rate excluding the triple-option offenses.
Lindsey’s Tar Heels faced a stacked box 53% of the time, and even that was elevated above his typical rates due to Omarion Hampton’s dominance.
Last week against New Mexico, however, Michigan saw an identical 71% stacked box rate.
Since Moore’s experience is coaching offensive line and tight ends, he’s probably using his influence more in that area, which may not be a positive for the effectiveness of Michigan’s offense.
That strategy worked when Michigan had an elite offensive line during its National Championship run, but the unit is no longer on that level.
Check out Michigan’s opponent-adjusted rushing yards before contact by running backs in recent years:
- 2024: ranked 61st
- 2023: ranked 20th
- 2022: ranked 1st
Oklahoma’s defense should be up for the challenge of stopping Justice Haynes and the Michigan rushing attack.
The Sooners’ defense ranked eighth by the same metric a season ago.
When lining up with a stacked box, the Sooners were particularly dominant, allowing 1.0 yards before contact (ranked 13th) and 3.0 yards per attempt (ranked ninth), per Sports Info Solutions.
When Oklahoma is on Offense
The Sooners are breaking in a brand new offense this season with coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, both of whom came from Washington State.
Expect a fast pace from the offense 一 a sharp contrast to Michigan 一 as the duo helped run a play once every 23.6 seconds a season ago, the nation’s 27th fastest pace.
Arbuckle is also going to run a pass-heavy scheme, which will be a drastic shift from the 2023 Sooners offense.
Check out the contrast in pass-rate over expected based on situational data from these programs in 2024, via Campus2Canton:
- Oklahoma: 3.5% below expected
- Washington State: 4.0% above expected
Arbuckle’s influence was on display immediately as the pass rate jumped to 16.7% above expected against Illinois State.
The Sooners’ passing attack will undoubtedly be improved this year, but for that to translate to wins, Mateer must answer one major question: Can he handle pressure?
When facing pressure, Mateer took a sack 31.4% of the time, the third-worst rate out of 138 qualified quarterbacks 一 and that was against a schedule which included just three power conference opponents (Texas Tech, Washington, Syracuse).
Mateer took just 1 sack on 6 pressures in the season opener, though we can’t conclude much from a game against Illinois State.
Fortunately for Mateer, one of the few flaws of Michigan’s defense in 2024 was an inability to convert pressures to sacks.
It ranked 77th in sack conversion rate, turning 19.9% of pressures into sacks.
Unfortunately for Mateer, the battle in the trenches is likely a lopsided one based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma: ranked 107th in pressure rate allowed
- Michigan: ranked 6th in pressure rate generated
Oklahoma is also dealing with injuries to three starting offensive linemen, though all three have the potential to play this week.
Left tackle Michael Fasusi missed last week’s game. His replacement was usual left guard Jacob Sexton, who left the game after just six snaps.
Right tackle Derek Simmons was also out last week and is hopeful to return.
Even if all three are able to go, Michigan is not the ideal opponent against which to be breaking in a new offensive line configuration.
That said, few teams lost more talent on the defensive line than Michigan, which sent Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Josaiah Stewart to the NFL, three of the Wolverines' four leading pass rushers.
If Michigan’s pass rush takes a step back, its pass defense as a whole is likely to suffer.
In 2024, Michigan was able to prevent teams from attacking downfield by consistently pressuring the quarterback, but when quarterbacks had time, throwing downfield was not a challenge.
Outside the red zone, Michigan allowed a 43.5% completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards, ranked 89th per Sports Info Solutions.
And when failing to generate pressure, Michigan allowed a 68% completion rate on all throws last year, ranked 87th.
It’s also worth noting Michigan might be without star safety Rod Moore, who missed Week 1 and is still recovering from an ACL injury.
Last week against New Mexico, Michigan generated a predictably strong 44% pressure rate, but the Lobos kept the game mildly interesting 一 Michigan led by just 10 points deep into the fourth quarter.
New Mexico’s surprising success was due to Michigan’s inability to stop the Lobos when failing to get to the quarterback.
According to Sports Info Solutions, New Mexico quarterback Jack Layne (a transfer from Idaho), was 24 for 27 for 159 yards when Michigan failed to create pressure.
Despite his issues against pressure, Mateer thrived in a clean pocket last year, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, ranked 13th in the FBS.
In the run game, Oklahoma will likely lean on Jovantae Barnes and true freshman Tory Blaylock.
One of Oklahoma’s most notable portal additions was Cal running back Jaydn Ott, who might not be a factor, at least early on, this season.
Ott was a genuine superstar in 2023, but played through an injury last year and was one of the worst starting running backs in all of college football.
When accounting for defenders in the box and the direction of the run, Ott gained 36% fewer yards than expected, easily the worst rate among qualified power conference running backs per Sports Info Solutions.
And don’t try to blame the Cal offensive line or coaching staff 一 Ott’s teammate, Jaivian Thomas (now at UCLA), posted a rate 31% above expected.
On a positive note, Arbuckle’s spread offense should create a more favorable rushing environment for Oklahoma’s ball carriers.
Arbuckle’s running backs faced a stacked box 35.5% of the time last year, the 26th-lowest rate 一 Oklahoma ranked 50th (43.2%).
Michigan’s defense was among the best in the country last year, but due to the old-school mentality of coordinator Wink Martindale, the Wolverines preferred to stack the box and did so at the nation’s 33rd-highest rate.
Take a look at Michigan’s numbers based on box type last year, via stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- Stacked box: 3.5 yards per attempt, ranked 18th
- Light box: 4.9 yards per attempt, ranked 37th
The Wolverines are also likely to take a step backward due to the losses of Graham and Grant.
Final Thoughts on Oklahoma vs. Michigan Best Bets
Both teams found upgrades at quarterback and offensive coordinator, so let’s bank on improved offensive production and bet the over at 44.5 points.
These teams ranked 97th and 113th in scoring offense a season ago, but both made significant changes and should be more consistent and dramatically more explosive.
If forced to bet the spread, I’d lean towards Oklahoma because of Mateer’s big-play ability, which likely forces Underwood and Michigan to be more aggressive and potentially produce some big plays of their own, driving up the score.
