This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into this week's College Game Day matchup as Notre Dame pays a visit to Pittsburgh.
Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh, current line:
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh Best Bet Prediction:
Pat Narduzzi said he doesn’t care about this game, so why should we bet on Pitt? Take Notre Dame against the spread,
- Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh, best line: Notre Dame -12.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Notre Dame -12.5 points
When Notre Dame is on Offense
Notre Dame runs a balanced offense under coordinator Mike Denbrock, leaning on a mix of a powerful rushing attack and the downfield passing game.
Denbrock has always preferred to feature a downfield passing attack 一 it helped Jayden Daniels win a Heisman at LSU 一 but this more balanced attack might be the best version of his scheme.
When Notre Dame turns to Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price in the run game, Pitt has a chance to be competitive based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Notre Dame: ranked 36th in yards before contact
- Pittsburgh: ranked 21st in yards before contact allowed
- Notre Dame: ranked 12th in yards after contact
- Pittsburgh: ranked 2nd in yards after contact allowed
Notre Dame tends to lean on tight formations, allowing defenses to stack the box, which also plays into Pitt’s hands.
With seven or more defenders in the box, Pitt is allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt (ranked 29th) while stuffing the ball carrier for zero or negative yards 29% of the time (ranked 10th).
If Pitt does manage to contain the Irish rushing attack, it shouldn’t be hard for Notre Dame to pivot to a more pass-heavy approach.
Since Denbrock likes his offense to attack downfield, protecting quarterback C.J. Carr is critical to the team’s success, and that shouldn’t be an issue in this matchup.
Take a look at the pass protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- Notre Dame: ranked 5th in pressure rate allowed
- Pittsburgh: ranked 43rd in pressure rate generated
Pitt’s mediocre pressure production is especially concerning given its high blitz rate (39%, ranked 10th), which should lead to more production.
Blitzing Carr, a redshirt freshman, sounds like a good idea given his inexperience, but he’s handled those situations well.
Check out Carr’s numbers against the blitz, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 32% pressure rate, ranked 15th
- 70% completion rate, ranked 11th
- 9.5 yards per attempt, ranked 10th
- 55% positive EPA rate, ranked 7th
When he has time to throw, expect Carr to attack downfield and likely have success against a mediocre Panthers secondary.
Outside the red zone, the Irish throw 15 or more yards downfield 28% of the time (ranked 15th), while Carr completes 52% of those throws (ranked 23rd).
Pitt’s 43.5% completion rate allowed at that depth ranks 65th.
Carr’s success as a downfield passer also gives Notre Dame the potential to negate one of Pitt’s defensive strengths: third-down defense.
Pitt forces opponents into third-and-long situations at the nation’s fifth-highest rate 一 which it might be able to replicate against Notre Dame due to its run defense.
However, Notre Dame has converted 44% of its third-and-long attempts, the nation’s highest rate.
And since Pitt’s secondary is suspect, the Panthers only rank 82nd in third-and-long conversion rate allowed.
When Pittsburgh is on Offense
Head coach Pat Narduzzi acknowledged that this game means nothing to Pitt, which has me concerned about the team’s effort.
Just last week, we saw Navy sit quarterback Blake Horvath due to a minor injury as a precaution, knowing it has much bigger games ahead on its conference schedule.
Since Pitt is alive in the ACC race and has Miami and Georgia Tech ahead in the following weeks, we should be prepared for the possibility that Pitt pulls its starters at some point in this game.
Narduzzi’s comments also concern me more than they might from another coach due to Pitt’s style of play.
Offensive coordinator Kade Bell is one of the more aggressive play callers in the country.
Pitt plays at the nation’s 29th fastest pace and, according to Campus2Canton, has a pass rate 13% above expected.
That style is not ideal if the goal is simply to get out of this game with your health intact.
Adding to that concern is Notre Dame’s likely dominance in the trenches.
Check out the pass-protection matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Pittsburgh: ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
- Notre Dame: ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
So will Narduzzi be comfortable sticking to their typical up-tempo, pass-heavy game plan while his true-freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel takes a beating?
I have my doubts.
Even if Pitt tries to lean into quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) to negate Notre Dame’s pass rush, Heintschel likely lacks the decision-making tools to execute that offense effectively.
On quick dropbacks, Heintschel has taken pressure 32% of the time, ranked 126th, per Sports Info Solutions.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame has generated pressure against quick dropbacks 32% of the time, ranked ninth.
Despite the likely issues in pass protection, expect Pitt to make some big plays downfield when Heintschel has time to throw.
Outside the red zone, 26% of Pitt’s pass attempts are 15 or more yards downfield (ranked 26th), while Heintschel is completing 59.5% of those throws (ranked fifth).
The downfield passing game has been an area of weakness for Notre Dame this season, as it allows a 44% completion rate on throws at that depth outside the red zone, ranked 71st.
If Pitt opts for a more conservative run-heavy approach in an effort to keep Heintschel out of harm’s way, the Panthers stand little chance against the Irish run defense.
Let’s take a look at how these teams stack up in the run game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Pittsburgh: ranked 59th in yards before contact
- Notre Dame: ranked 10th in yards before contact allowed
- Pittsburgh: ranked 133rd in yards after contact
- Notre Dame: ranked 1st in yards after contact allowed
Bell’s spread offense excels at creating light boxes for his running backs, which gives Pitt an edge in certain matchups.
However, Notre Dame has the athletes to defend that style and is allowing just 3.4 yards per attempt with a light box, ranked eighth.
Further complicating things for the Panther run game is an injury to star running back Desmond Reid.
Reid was injured against NC State on October 25 and was in a walking boot on the sideline during the game.
He then missed Pitt’s next game against Stanford.
Pitt had a bye last week, giving Reid more time to recover.
Since he was listed as a game-time decision against Stanford, it’s reasonable to assume he’s healthy enough to play against the Irish.
But will Narduzzi be comfortable giving his best offensive weapon a typical workload in a meaningless game?
If Narduzzi is serious about not caring about the outcome of this game, it raises a lot of questions for Pitt’s offense.
Final Thoughts on Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame Bets
Pitt doesn’t care about this game because it has no impact on its path to the playoffs, so bet Notre Dame against the spread.
While the game means nothing to Pitt, which is an extreme long shot to get an at-large playoff berth, it’s a huge game for Notre Dame.
If the Irish win, this will be one of the two best wins on their résumé, giving Notre Dame incentive to win and run up the score.
