This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out the Sugar Bowl matchup between Georgia and Ole Miss.
Ole Miss vs. Georgia, current line:
Ole Miss at Georgia Best Bet Prediction:
Georgia’s defense had too many issues in the first meeting to trust it to cover this large number, so take Ole Miss against the spread.
- Ole Miss vs. Georgia, best line: Ole Miss +6.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Ole Miss +6.5 points
When Ole Miss is on Offense
Ole Miss runs the typical Lane Kiffin offense 一 even though it's fully Charlie Weis Jr’s show now 一 which means leaning on a passing attack that gets the ball out quickly to its playmakers in space.
When these teams met in October, I recommended taking Ole Miss due to flaws in an inexperienced Georgia defense.
Although Georgia ended up covering after a fourth-quarter comeback, the concerns about Georgia proved fair as Ole Miss reached the end zone on each of its five drives through the first three quarters.
This might not be the same Georgia defense that took the field that day in mid-October.
The Bulldogs' inexperienced defense has settled in and looked more like a typical Kirby Smart unit over the back half of the season.
However, the strength of schedule got easier once Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee were out of the way, though a rematch with Alabama added a key data point.
The most notable change has been a revival of Georgia’s pass rush, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Through the Ole Miss game: ranked 84th in pressure rate generated
- Since the Ole Miss game: ranked 36th in pressure rate generated
There’s no denying the pass-rush unit has improved, but that probably doesn’t matter against an Ole Miss offense that gets the ball out quickly.
Ole Miss ranks 10th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed in large part due to its reliance on quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs).
Quick dropbacks account for 56% of Ole Miss’ pass plays, the nation’s sixth-highest rate.
Ole Miss is going to run this offense no matter the opponent, but it’s also the perfect strategy to lean into against Georgia, which has struggled to prevent yards after catch on those short, quick throws.
Against quick dropbacks, Georgia is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 103rd.
And since Georgia lacks a true game-wrecker on its pass-rush unit, quick dropbacks are also the best way to neutralize its improved pass rush 一 the Bulldogs rank 98th in pressure rate generated against quick dropbacks (19%).
It’s also worth noting that Georgia’s defense improvement was most notable in the SEC championship game against Alabama, a team that relies heavily on traditional dropbacks.
In that matchup, Alabama only used 6 quick dropbacks, but they had success on those plays, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.
Relying on the quick passing attack also eliminates concerns about Georgia’s greatest strength on defense: its ability to defend the downfield pass.
In fact, in the last meeting between these teams, Trinidad Chambliss was only 2 for 12 on throws of 10 or more yards, yet it had almost no impact on Ole Miss’ ability to march up and down the field.
Despite his performance in that game, we also can’t rule out an improved downfield passing performance in this game from Chambliss.
Outside the red zone, Chambliss is completing 50% of his throws, ranked 23rd.
Georgia ranks 12th in completion rate allowed at that depth.
One of the reasons Georgia struggles with the quick passing attack is a tackling issue.
The Bulldogs are allowing a broken tackle once every 5.8 receptions, ranked 89th.
This is not an area where Georgia has improved, as it missed a season-high 8 tackles in the passing game in its last contest against Alabama, surpassing its previous season high of 6. That was set the week before against Georgia Tech.
In the run game, Georgia’s defense holds a more clear-cut advantage based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ole Miss: ranked 43rd in yards before contact
- Georgia: ranked 10th in yards before contact allowed
- Ole Miss: ranked 40th in yards after contact
- Georgia: ranked 6th in yards after contact allowed
When Ole Miss has success on the ground, it’s typically because its spread offense creates open running lanes, but Georgia has the athletes to defend that style of play.
Even when lined up with a light box, Georgia is only allowing 3.8 yards per attempt, the nation’s seventh-lowest rate.
For this reason, concerns about Kewan Lacy’s health 一 he injured his shoulder against Tulane 一 don’t mean much as he’s not likely to have an impact.
Georgia held Lacy to 31 yards on 12 carries in the first meeting, and a repeat performance is likely.
When Georgia is on Offense
Georgia runs an almost perfectly balanced offense, running the ball at a rate just 0.5% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton.
The strategy is more out of necessity due to concerns about Gunner Stockton’s passing ability rather than the presence of a strong rushing attack.
Fortunately for the Bulldogs, a run-heavy game plan is the right way to attack Ole Miss.
Check out the opponent-adjusted numbers on the ground game via Sports Info Solutions:
- Georgia: ranked 80th in yards before contact
- Ole Miss: ranked 118th in yards before contact allowed
- Georgia: ranked 51st in yards after contact
- Ole Miss: ranked 59th in yards after contact allowed
Georgia running backs were relatively successful in the first meeting, picking up 146 yards on 34 carries, though that only averages out to a modest 4.6 yards per attempt.
The reason Ole Miss had some moderate success slowing down the Bulldog rushing attack is that the scheme plays into Ole Miss’ hands.
Take a look at Ole Miss’ run defense by box type, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Light box: 5.6 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 86th
- Stacked box: 4.1 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 48th
Georgia’s preference for heavier formations, as well as a lack of respect for Stockton’s arm, has allowed defenses to stack the box 64% of the time, the 20th-highest rate.
So Ole Miss can frequently line up in the best version of its run defense against the Bulldogs.
Stockton is a factor in the rushing game as well, though, and that’s part of why the Bulldogs moved the ball relatively easily in the first matchup.
Although he’s not a dynamic runner, Stockton is averaging 40.5 yards per game on the ground, excluding sacks, and picked up 59 yards on 10 carries against Ole Miss in October.
Despite its athletic defense, Ole Miss has not fared well against mobile quarterbacks.
Based on opponent-adjusted numbers, Ole Miss is allowing 4.1% more yards on the ground to quarterbacks than expected, ranked 77th.
In the passing game, Georgia doesn’t scare anyone but has survived thanks to its offensive line.
Georgia ranks sixth in the country in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
Ole Miss’ defense ranks 19th by the same metric, but was helpless in the first meeting, generating a pitiful 11.4% pressure rate on Stockton.
Since Georgia doesn’t fully trust Stockton as a downfield passer, it has built its passing attack around underneath routes, primarily trying to get Zachariah Branch into the open field.
The Bulldogs throw the ball five yards downfield or fewer 53% of the time, the 23rd-highest rate, with Branch commanding a 29% target share on those plays per Sports Info Solutions.
Branch has been a dynamic weapon on those plays, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt, the 11th-best mark in the FBS.
However, Ole Miss did have some success containing Branch, as he gained just 31 yards on 5 of those short targets.
One of the most surprising developments of that first matchup was Stockton hitting on a few big plays down the field.
On throws of at least 15 yards, Stockton completed 4 of 6 passes for 119 yards.
However, this area has been Stockton’s greatest weakness and one of the strengths of the Ole Miss defense.
Outside the red one, Stockton is completing just 38% of his throws at that depth, ranked 118th, while Ole Miss allows a 30% completion rate, the nation’s sixth-lowest mark.
If Stockton doesn’t uncharacteristically hit on those big plays, perhaps there’s a different outcome in the first matchup, and this rematch would be viewed differently.
Final Thoughts on Georgia vs. Ole Miss Best Bets
Although Georgia’s defense has certainly improved, Ole Miss’ scheme is built to exploit the Bulldogs’ weaknesses, so let’s take the points and bet Ole Miss against the spread.
Based on how these teams performed against others, Ole Miss’ strong offense performance against the Bulldogs in the first meeting looks repeatable.
And while Georgia will likely have success and might still win a close game, it probably can’t match Ole Miss’ firepower as easily as it did in October.
