This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at the marquee matchup of the weekend between Texas and Ohio State in Columbus.
Ohio State vs. Texas, current line:
Texas at Ohio State Best Bet Prediction:
This game looks like a toss up, so the safest bet is to trust the more experienced team playing on its home turf. Take Ohio State on the money line.
- Ohio State vs. Texas, current line: Ohio State -120
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When Texas is on Offense
As you may have heard, Arch Manning 一 son of Cooper, grandson of Archie, nephew of Peyton and Eli 一 has been anointed the second coming at Texas.
Manning will step into an offense run by head coach and play-caller Steve Sarkisian, and there will likely be minimal changes to the version of Sark’s scheme we saw over the last few years with Quinn Ewers.
According to Campus2Canton, Texas threw the ball at a rate 6.6% above expected in 2024 and a rate 6.2% above expected during Manning’s two starts while filling in for the injured Ewers.
The biggest concern facing Texas, especially with an inexperienced quarterback, is the state of the offensive line, which returns only one starter.
Last year, Texas ranked 16th in the country in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
Not only did Texas lose four starters to the NFL, but the Longhorns elected to replace everyone from within rather than add some experience from the portal.
As a result, Texas’s most experienced offensive lineman will be DJ Campbell, who was a liability in pass protection last year as the Longhorns’ right guard.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Campbell ranked 26th out of 31 qualified SEC guards in blown rate when in pass protection for a traditional dropback (three or more steps).
Fortunately for Texas, Ohio State is also replacing nearly the same amount of production on its defensive line.
Last year, Ohio State ranked second in the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated, but they lost Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, who combined for 117 quarterback pressures (44% of the Buckeyes’ total).
Unlike Texas’ offensive line, however, a key portal reinforcement was added to the Ohio State defensive front in the form of Beau Atkinson.
Last year at North Carolina, Atkinson ranked 14th out of 238 qualified power-conference pass rushers in pressure rate generated against traditional dropbacks (21.3%), per Sports Info Solutions.
In assessing the Texas passing attack, it’s also worth noting that we don’t really know what to expect from Manning as a passer.
Based on route-adjusted data, Manning’s on-target rate was 2.6% below expected last season 一 well below Ewers (5.3% above average).
Expectations for Manning are understandably high, and growth in that area is likely, but can he demonstrate that progress on the road in the season opener behind an inexperienced offensive line?
Texas might try to lean on the run game early to ease Manning into a hostile environment, but the Longhorns had absolutely no room to run against the Buckeyes in their matchup in January.
Excluding sacks, Ohio State held Texas running backs to 2.8 yards per attempt and 0.5 yards before contact per attempt in that semifinal matchup.
Obviously, many of the players on both lines are gone, but the same concerns about Texas’ inexperience and lack of portal additions apply to the run game.
It’s also worth noting Ohio State’s second level has plenty of returning talent 一 most notably linebacker Sonny Styles and strong safety Caleb Downs.
The Longhorns' backfield will likely be led by Tre Wisner, who returns after compiling just over 1,000 yards last season.
Wisner relied heavily on his line, however, and some underlying metrics indicate he may not have the tools to overcome inconsistent play from the big men up front.
When accounting for defenders in the box and the inside/outside direction of the run, Wisner gained 7.9% fewer yards than expected, per Sports Info Solutions, which ranked 61st out of 80 qualified power-conference running backs.
Wisner’s teammate, Jaydon Blue (now in the NFL), gained 7.4% more yards than expected, so it’s tough to pin the mediocre production on anyone other than Wisner.
That said, CJ Baxter will also be in the mix in the backfield and could be the answer 一 he was expected to be the starter last year before a preseason injury wiped out his season.
We should also mention another wildcard factor potentially in Texas’ favor: Ohio State let defensive coordinator Jim Knowles jump ship to Penn State and replaced him with long-time NFL coach Matt Patricia.
Patricia certainly has the blueprint and the talent necessary to succeed immediately, but there are some fundamental differences in the way the game is played (primarily the hashmarks) that can affect playcalling.
The last time Patricia was in the college game, the Buckeyes were also the defending champs, but Jim Tressel was their head coach (Patricia was a grad assistant at Syracuse in 2003).
When Ohio State is on Offense
Ohio State lost some key playmakers to the NFL 一 most notably quarterback Will Howard and receiver Emeka Egbuka 一 but the Buckeyes' offense still returns nine players who made at least six starts during their championship season.
The biggest loss to the offense was arguably coordinator Chip Kelly, who moved on to the NFL and was replaced by longtime receivers coach Brian Hartline.
Hartline was the offensive coordinator in 2023, before Kelly arrived in Columbus, but head coach Ryan Day called the plays back then. This year, Hartline will be the primary playcaller for the Buckeyes.
Ohio State ran a pass-heavy scheme last year, throwing the ball at a rate 6.3% above expected based on situational data, and there’s no reason to expect a change despite the losses of Kelly and Howard to the NFL.
Julian Sayin, a five-star recruit from the 2024 class, will take over at quarterback.
Although Sayin is inexperienced, arguably no coach in the college game is better at recruiting and developing quarterbacks than Day.
Since Day joined Ohio State as offensive coordinator in 2017, five of his six quarterbacks have been drafted into the NFL, including three first-round picks.
Only J.T. Barrett, the starter he inherited in 2017, was not drafted.
Before Day’s arrival, Ohio State had produced just one first or second-round quarterback selection in the history of the program.
So while we don't know exactly what to expect from Sayin, we should assume Day will have him prepared for the moment.
Sayin will also be aided by Jeremiah Smith, arguably the nation’s most dangerous weapon at receiver.
Based on route-adjusted data, Smith had a catch rate 12.6% above expected last season, the fourth-best mark out of 113 qualified power-conference wide receivers.
Among the three players with a higher adjusted catch rate than Smith was Ohio State’s Carnell Tate (13.1% above expected), who steps into a larger role due to the departure of Egbuka.
For Texas to slow down the Buckeyes’ passing attack, the Longhorns likely need to generate pressure and force Sayin into mistakes.
Although Texas did not have a dominant pass rush last year 一 it ranked 44th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated 一 Colin Simmons was a force.
Simmons ranked second in the SEC with a 19.8% pressure rate in 2024.
Ohio State’s offensive line was fantastic last year, ranked sixth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
However, the Buckeyes lost four starters to the NFL.
Despite those losses, the Buckeyes return more experience than a typical team losing four linemen to the NFL, as injuries forced them to dip into their reserves during the 2024 season.
Left tackle Austin Siereveld was not a full-time starter, but did start six games due to injuries, and center Carson Hinzman made nine starts including during the postseason run.
Ohio State also went to the portal to add Ethan Onianwa, a three-year starter from Rice, and Phillip Daniels, who started four games for Minnesota last year.
The run game matchup is more difficult to predict due to the turnover for both squads.
Ohio State lost TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to the NFL, with James Peoples and West Virginia transfer CJ Donaldson taking over.
Peoples is more explosive and is likely to be the starter (in the Henderson role), while Judkins is the between-the-tackles guy (in the Judkins role).
Texas lost both starting defensive tackles to the NFL (Vernon Broughton and Alfred Collins), which might create problems in the run game.
However, the Longhorns were in the exact same position a year ago after losing T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II to the league, and the unit didn’t miss a beat.
Perhaps Sark is turning Texas into the type of team that effortlessly reloads, much like one of his former bosses Nick Saban.
Although this year Texas was forced to turn to the portal for help, adding five defensive tackles from outside the program.
Cole Brevard (from Purdue) and Maraad Watson (from Syracuse) are expected to start, but Texas’ strategy of creating a competition between a slew of transfers is an indication that the coaching staff didn’t know what to expect from the group.
Final Thoughts on Ohio State vs. Texas Best Bets
This is a challenging game to pick due to the turnover on both rosters, so let’s trust the home team and take Ohio State on the moneyline.
Although both teams lost a considerable amount of talent, Ohio State returns arguably the best offensive and defensive players in the country (Smith and Downs).
The Buckeyes also have more experience at some key positions, most notably the offensive line and wide receiver.
