It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2025 NFL season.
In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.
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| 2025 Best Player Prop Bets |
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| Best QB Over Bets 2025 |
| Best QB Under Bets 2025 |
| Best RB Over Bets 2025 |
| Best RB Under Bets 2025 (Coming Soon) |
| Best WR Over Bets 2025 (Coming Soon) |
| Best WR Under Bets 2025 (Coming Soon) |
While some might think fantasy football projections are just for those drafting teams this summer, they can be used as a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets, as well as in fantasy drafts.
The NFL season is full of chaos and injuries, but projections provide an estimate of median outcomes at player and team levels.
Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who are higher or lower than the current market and how to bet those situations.
Get Access to Rich Hribar's Projections in Our Sharp Football Draft Kit!
Up next: which running back prop bet OVERS are likely to hit in the 2025 NFL season?
Christian McCaffrey Props: Why You Should Bet the Over
Current Over/Unders for Christian McCaffrey:
- 7.5 rushing touchdowns (-108) FanDuel
Why You Should Bet the Over:
After finishing last in the division, the 49ers play what is projected to be the easiest schedule of opponents this season and the fourth-easiest rush efficiency defenses.
Without McCaffrey for the majority of the season, the 49ers finished 15th in red zone touchdown rate, an 11% decline from 2023 when the 49ers led the league in red zone efficiency.
Despite being the league's most injured teams last season, the offense ranked fourth in expected touchdowns, and with McCaffrey’s return, should regain elite status in the red zone.
Prior to last season, McCaffrey had averaged 0.7 touchdowns per game with Kyle Shanahan.
As a result of Shanahan’s lack of transparency last season, bettors and fantasy gamers are jaded about the outlook for McCaffrey.
This recency bias had caused the public to overlook that McCaffrey had his most efficient rushing season of his career in 2023, averaging a career-high 5.4 yards per carry and leading the league with 349 rushing yards over expected.
In 2023, McCaffrey’s first full season with the 49ers, he scored his 8th rushing touchdown of the season in Week 7.
According to many injury analysts, McCaffrey will be near 100% health from his PCL injury to start Week 1, with a moderate increase in risk of injury over baseline.
The 49ers have the fifth-highest win total this season and are in the last year of Brock Purdy’s rookie deal.
This could be the 49ers' last-ditch effort to win a championship with several aging players.
It would not be surprising if McCaffrey pushes 300 rushes this season.
Fantasy football gamers are afraid of being burned by the 29-year-old running back.
However, it is highly unlikely that McCaffrey requires 17 healthy games to exceed the oddsmakers' total in the betting market.
This is an example in which the odds and fantasy football ADP do not align.
Should McCaffrey stay healthy, it is in the range of outcomes that he doubles the season line total.
That is a way bigger hit in fantasy football, whereas the bet is a binary outcome that pays the same.
The Sharp Football fantasy projections have McCaffrey projected for more PPR points than any other running back, and we have him ranked third, well ahead of consensus, because of the league-winning ability if he stays healthy.
2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:
- Christian McCaffrey Over 7.5 rushing touchdowns (-108) FD
2025 Christian McCaffrey Long Shot Bet:
- Christian McCaffrey Offensive Player of the Year (+2200) DraftKings
James Conner Props: Why You Should Bet the Over
Current Over/Unders for James Conner:
- 900.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DraftKings
Why You Should Bet the Over:
In 2024, the Arizona Cardinals invested an early third-round pick on Trey Benson
Yet, James Conner proceeded to hit a career high in carries and signed a two-year extension in November.
Conner has reached 1,000 rushing yards and averaged 5.0 and 4.6 yards per carry in both seasons since Drew Petzing took over as offensive coordinator.
Conner averaged 17.8 carries per game in Cardinals victories compared to 12.3 in Cardinals losses last season, which bodes well for his volume this season.
The Cardinals have the second-largest improvement in strength of schedule this season.
Should the Cardinals remain competitive and push for a playoff spot, it is likely that Conner maintains his stranglehold on the running back carries.
Despite an injury-prone label, it should be noted that Conner did play the first 16 games of last season before missing the final game with the team eliminated from playoff contention.
Our projections have Connor in line for similar volume and efficiency as last season, which given the signals from the team, seems realistic despite his age.
There is a bull case for improved efficiency as a result of offensive continuity.
The entire starting offense is returning, which, combined with the projected fifth-easiest opposing defenses, provides an opportunity for the offense to ascend in terms of efficiency.
Connor is the 16th-ranked running back in Sharp Football rankings and is currently being drafted as the 19th running back in DraftKings best ball.
2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:
- James Conner Over 900.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DK
