Best Running Back Player Prop Bets (Unders) for 2025

It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2025 NFL season.

In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.

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While some might think fantasy football projections are just for those drafting teams this summer, they can be used as a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets, as well as in fantasy drafts.

The NFL season is full of chaos and injuries, but projections provide an estimate of median outcomes at player and team levels.

Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who are higher or lower than the current market and how to bet those situations.

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Up next: which running back prop bet UNDERS are likely to hit in the 2025 NFL season?

Brian Robinson Props: Why You Should Bet the Under

Current Over/Unders for Brian Robinson:

• 750.5 Rushing Yards (-115) DraftKings

Why You Should Bet the Under:

Robinson’s usage with the Commanders has taken a different curve than prototypical young running backs, as his greatest usage was in his rookie season, in which he was recovering from a gunshot wound.

Now in the final year of his rookie deal, it is possible to envision the Commanders moving on from Robinson at the end of the season and, in turn, reducing a portion of his rush share in favor of rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

Robinson averaged fewer yards per carry than all three of Chris Rodriguez, Jeremy McNichols, and Austin Ekeler.

Robinson has missed multiple games with lower body injuries in all three seasons, which helps the case when selecting a season long under.

Robinson is an early down grinder who has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over his three seasons, essentially requiring 160 to 180 carries to reach his rushing total.

The Sharp Median Projection has him projected for 167 carries.

However, those are fragile if the seventh-round rookie can show some of his explosiveness in his early opportunities.

Austin Ekeler also returns this season after missing significant time last season with two in-season concussions and cut into Robinson’s workload in the playoffs, averaging seven carries per game.

The schedule works against Robinson, as the Commanders have the second-hardest increase in schedule difficulty compared to last season, which could provide more negative game scripts that favor a pass catching running back.

The addition of Deebo Samuel also muddies the water on Robinson’s rush share.

Samuel isn’t a prototypical wide receiver, as most of his work is done in the short area passing game, and he has averaged 45 carries a year over the past four seasons.

2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:

• Brian Robinson Under 750.5 Rushing Yards (-115) DK

Chuba Hubbard Props: Why You Should Bet the Under

Current Over/Unders for Chuba Hubbard:

• 950.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DK

Why You Should Bet the Under:

The Panthers added Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne, who are likely to cut into Hubbard’s massive workload.

Prior to his injury forcing him to miss the final week, Hubbard handled 78% of the Panthers' running back carries, a number which is likely to regress in 2025.

The Panthers are favored in only three games in 2025, which could set up pass heavy scripts that favor the other running backs.

Play volume under Dave Canales has been low the past two seasons.

The Panthers finished 31st in offensive plays last season after finishing 10th in 2023.

The Buccaneers jumped to sixth last season after ranking 25th the previous season with Canales as the offensive coordinator.

Our baseline projections have Hubbard projected slightly over the season long total.

However, a slight change in rush share or an injury reduces the likelihood of hitting such a large number.

Dowdle handled 235 rush attempts last season, and it would not be shocking to see a 60/40 split.

Our projections have Dowdle and Etienne for 6 carries combined per game.

Hubbard was an effective running back last year, but everything fell in his favor.

Miles Sanders missed eight games, and Jonathon Brooks missed the majority of the season.

This is a bet based on the probability that Hubbard hits 200 carries due to running back injury risk and improved competition from last season.

2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:

• Chuba Hubbard Under 950.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DK