Best Wide Receiver Player Prop Bets (Overs) for 2025

It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2025 NFL season.

In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.

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While some might think fantasy football projections are just for those drafting teams this summer, they can be used as a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets, as well as in fantasy drafts.

The NFL season is full of chaos and injuries, but projections provide an estimate of median outcomes at player and team levels.

Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who are higher or lower than the current market and how to bet those situations.

Get Access to Rich Hribar's Projections in Our Sharp Football Draft Kit!

Up next: which wide receiver prop bet OVERS are likely to hit in the 2025 NFL season?

Stefon Diggs Props: Why You Should Bet the Over

Current Over/Unders for Stefon Diggs:

• 725.5 Receiving Yards — DraftKings

Why You Should Bet the Over:

Diggs enters the 2025 season as a 31-year-old receiver coming off an ACL injury.

However, the dropoff in his game has been dramatically overblown.

Diggs is an elite target earner who has never finished a season in his 10-year career below a rate of 21% targets per route run.

In his lone season with the Texans, Diggs saw a modest decline to 23.7% target rate per route, but he shared a field with Nico Collins, who is an ascending elite wide receiver.

Without Collins on the field last season, Diggs eclipsed a 25% target rate and averaged over 2 yards per route run.

The target competition on the Patriots can be considered wide open.

Hunter Henry led the team in yards and targets last season.

Diggs is coming off a Week 8 ACL tear, but he has looked healthy in his offseason activities and was active in OTAs and in the early part of training camp.

The Sharp Football projections have Diggs projected for over 900 yards, and ESPN’s Mike Clay shares a similar sentiment.

It is quite possible the market has not accounted for the fact that Diggs will be ready for Week 1.

According to Deepak Chona, a data-driven injury analyst and doctor, Diggs projects to have 85% efficiency with a four-game ramp up reaching 90% efficiency in Week 5.

Working in Digg’s favor for a solid season is the fact that the New England Patriots have a very favorable schedule, which we project as the second easiest in the NFL, and the pass offense is projected for the seventh-most favorable improvement from last season.

Drake Maye enters his second season taking all of the starter reps in camp with an improved offensive line and a respected head coach, which bodes well for Diggs.

If Diggs stays healthy and the offense takes a step forward in Maye’s second season, there is a solid chance that Diggs outproduces the median projection.

2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:

• Stefon Diggs Over 725.5 Receiving Yards (+100) DK

2025 Stefon Diggs Long Shot Bet:

• Stefon Diggs Over 1,250 Receiving Yards (+1300) FanDuel

Keon Coleman Props: Why You Should Bet the Over

Current Over/Unders for Keon Coleman:

• 750.5 Receiving Yards — DraftKings
• 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns — DraftKings

Why You Should Bet the Over:

Anyone who has read or listened to Rich Hribar knows that second-year wide receivers are targets in fantasy football, and Coleman fits the profile of a wide receiver who can outproduce expectations in his second season.

What goes overlooked because Josh Allen won the MVP is the fact that he had his fewest passing yards and touchdown passes over his past five seasons.

After four consecutive seasons of passing for more than 4,250 yards, Allen dropped 3,731 passing yards last season.

The Bills were labelled as a team that rotated wide receivers last season, which has some truth to it, but Coleman ran a route on 90% of team dropbacks in Weeks 1 and 2 and 97% of team dropbacks in Weeks 17 and 18.

Coleman will be pushed for snaps and targets by new addition Josh Palmer, who was outproduced by sophomore Quentin Johnston last season.

Johnston was well ahead of Palmer in drawing targets, earning more than 6% more targets per route, producing 0.29 more yards per route and 7 more touchdowns.

Johnston was coming off a rookie season with abysmal production.

Coleman outproduced Johnston in all rookie receiving metrics by a large margin, which bodes well for the sophomore lining up with Palmer on the field this season.

Another overlooked part of Coleman’s season was a wrist injury that kept him off the field for four games.

Coleman relies on his ball skills as his ability to separate was never a strength of his profile, and he clearly struggled with catches post injury.

Prior to his injury, Coleman had a catch rate of 61% and averaged 46 receiving yards per game, compared to a 33% catch rate and 35 receiving yards post injury.

Coleman had great after the catch production, averaging 7.4 yards after the catch despite more than 15 air yards per target, and finished first in NextGen Stats average yards after catch over expectation.

Even after missing four games, Coleman led the Bills in targets thrown to the end zone, and the player who finished second (Mack Hollins) is no longer on the roster.

That opens the door for Coleman to improve on his touchdown production from his rookie season.

2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:

• Keon Coleman Over 750.5 Receiving Yards (+100) DK
• Keon Coleman Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-130) DK