It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2025 NFL season.
In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.
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While some might think fantasy football projections are just for those drafting teams this summer, they can be used as a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets, as well as in fantasy drafts.
The NFL season is full of chaos and injuries, but projections provide an estimate of median outcomes at player and team levels.
Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who are higher or lower than the current market and how to bet those situations.
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Up next: which wide receiver prop bet UNDERS are likely to hit in the 2025 NFL season?
Jerry Jeudy Props: Why You Should Bet the Under
Current Over/Unders for Jerry Jeudy:
- 900.5 Receiving Yards — FanDuel
Why You Should Bet the Under:
A change of scenery led to career highs in receiving yards and receptions for the fifth-year wide receiver, who was drafted before CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson.
Jeudy’s counting stats spiked because of sheer passing volume vs. improved efficiency as the Cleveland Browns led the league in pass attempts.
He finished 2024 with 712 routes, 197 more than any previous season and nearly a 30% increase in routes over his previous season high.
The former first-round pick has not lived up to the draft position. He has only finished above 2 yards per route run once and has not eclipsed a 23% target rate in any season.
Last year, Jeudy finished the season with a 20.4% target rate, which is lower than his career average.
More concerning for Jeudy’s outlook is that his target rate dropped to 17.3% when David Njoku was on the field.
Digging deeper, Njoku missed three games as the result of a high ankle sprain in Week 1 and likely played multiple weeks at less than 100%.
The Browns enter the season with the second-lowest win total, major questions at quarterback, and are projected to play the second-most difficult schedule.
Needing a reset after the Deshaun Watson trade, it’s easy to envision a scenario where the season gets away from the Browns.
The Denver Broncos lacked receiver depth, evidenced by Devaughn Vele and Lil'Jordan Humphrey running the second and third-most routes, yet they traded Jeudy for a fifth and sixth-round pick, which raises some alarm bells.
Last year, 32 pass catchers reached 900 receiving yards.
Jeudy ranked 30th in yards per route run and 29th in targets per route run, showcasing that Jeudy thrived on passing volume, which is due to regress.
Jameis Winston averaged 43 passes per game over a six-week stretch, which could happen with Joe Flacco but is unlikely for any of the other Browns quarterbacks likely to get some starts this season.
The Cleveland Browns are ranked dead last in projected points by DraftKings, providing more reason to look to season total unders from their offensive players.
2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:
- Jerry Jeudy Under 900.5 Receiving Yards (-114) FD
Chris Godwin Props: Why You Should Bet the Under
Current Over/Unders for Chris Godwin:
- 700.5 Receiving Yards — DraftKings
Why You Should Bet the Under:
Godwin enters the 2025 season coming off a gruesome ankle dislocation, which is the second season-ending injury he’s had to battle back from, previously tearing his ACL in 2021.
Much of Godwin’s 2024 success was a result of a lower aDOT, high yards after catch role in Liam Coen’s quick passing game.
That role resulted in a career-high 7.2 yards after the catch.
Investing a first-round pick in Emeka Egbuka was a signal that Godwin’s recovery was behind schedule.
Questions involving Godwin’s usage and availability remain, but it is highly unlikely Godwin will be available for Week 1.
Egbuka also provides competition to Godwin for slot snaps, where he thrived last season, averaging nearly 0.5 yards more per route than when lined up outside.
When Godwin does return to action, it’s difficult to assume he will be playing at the same efficiency as he was last season.
Godwin is a great receiver and is very easy to root for as a great comeback story.
However, a 29-year-old returning to form less than a year after a significant ankle injury would be an outlier result.
Surprisingly, Godwin has a season total lined despite little clarity on when he will return, but I think the prudent bet is to assume he misses more time than anticipated or struggles to return to form.
Godwin has missed multiple games in five of the past six seasons, and returning without training camp or offseason workouts increases his risk for injury when he does return to action.
2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:
- Chris Godwin Under 700.5 Receiving Yards (-125) DK
