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2025 NFL Futures Betting Recommendation: San Francisco 49ers to be NFC’s No. 1 Seed (+470)
I’m going back to the well with a suggestion for betting on the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
I previously suggested the Packers before their loss to the Browns and tie with the Cowboys.
So…I’m hoping for a better runout after this suggestion.
San Francisco’s +470 odds to be the NFC’s No. 1 seed at FanDuel are a relative bargain versus +375 at Caesars, +400 at DraftKings, and +450 at Fanatics.
Again, odds shopping is critical for all wagers, and this is the latest example.
The 49ers don’t have the most eye-catching numbers.
According to Sumer Sports, the 49ers are 17th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play (0.02), seventh in success rate (47.99%), tied for 10th in EPA allowed per play (-0.03), and 23rd in success rate (45.78%) allowed.
Additionally, their +8 point differential is actually the second-worst in the NFC West, only one point better than Arizona’s +7 point differential.
Nevertheless, the context moves San Francisco’s overall numbers from somewhat palatable to somewhat impressive.
First, their only loss was a home game against the now 4-1 Jaguars with Brock Purdy struggling as the starter after rushing back from his toe injury.
Second, they’ve defeated all three of their NFC West opponents, including road victories against the Seahawks in Week 1 and against the Rams in Week 5.
The 49ers have raced out to a 4-1 record despite navigating multiple injuries and possibly playing the toughest stretch of their schedule.
Three of San Francisco’s five opponents have a winning record this season, and four have a positive point differential.
The 49ers will face only three more teams with a winning record, and two with a .500 record.
Furthermore, just six of San Francisco’s remaining opponents have a positive point differential.
The locations and times for San Francisco’s remaining games are favorable, too.
The 49ers are in Tampa Bay this week and in Indianapolis in Week 16, but they’ll host the Seahawks in Week 18, host the Falcons in Week 7, and host the Bears in Week 17.
So, three of their five remaining games against teams with at least a .500 record will be in San Francisco.
The 49ers will only have the misfortune of playing three games in the 1:00 p.m. ET window, barring what time their Week 18 home game against the Seahawks ends up being.
Unfortunately, the banged-up 49ers won’t have the services of stud EDGE Nick Bosa for the remainder of the season.
They will get many reinforcements back, though.
WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings were out last week and could return as soon as this week.
Starting OG Ben Bartch will eventually return from a high-ankle sprain and an injured reserve stint, and TE George Kittle likely won’t be back this week, but Week 7 is in the crosshairs.
WR Brandon Aiyuk could also provide the offense with a spark, depending on how he plays in his return from ACL/MCL surgery on his knee.
The 49ers also opened the 21-day practice window for second-year S Malik Mustapha.
Among 83 safeties who played at least 450 snaps last year, Mustapha was Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) 45th-graded safety.
His grade was approximately average, which wasn’t too shabby for a rookie.
PFF’s player grades also aren’t the be-all, end-all. Still, the second-year pro’s return will add a thumper to San Francisco’s secondary.
And, of course, Mac Jones’ quality play will allow the 49ers to give Purdy sufficient time to recover from his toe injury.
Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season, Jones is PFF’s 13th-graded passer.
Furthermore, among 32 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this year, Jones is 12th in EPA per play (0.13).
Purdy has tallied 0.16 EPA per play this year.
Last year, he rattled off 0.18 EPA per play, and he had an NFL-high 0.29 EPA per play among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays in 2023.
As well as Jones has played, Purdy will be an upgrade if his toe doesn’t hamper his play after he reprises his starting role.
The Lions, Packers, Eagles, and Buccaneers are San Francisco’s fiercest competition for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
However, their roads to the NFC’s No. 1 seed are littered with more difficult matchups, making the 49ers’ +470 odds to capture the NFC’s No. 1 seed offered at FanDuel compelling.
Previous Recommendations:
- James Cook to Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards (+1100) — October 1
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba to lead the NFL in Receiving Yards (+700) — September 23
- Green Bay Packers NFC No. 1 seed (+250) — September 16
- Justin Herbert Most Passing TDs (+2000), Most Passing Yards (+1500) — September 9
- Brock Purdy AP MVP Winner (+3000) — September 1
