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Super Bowl odds, award odds, and many other futures bets will remain available throughout the NFL season.
Every week, we will look at the top options and best values in those markets.
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2025 NFL Futures Betting Recommendation: Brock Purdy AP MVP Winner (+3000)
The criteria for winning the AP NFL MVP Award are straightforward, which will lead intelligent bettors to avoid wasting their money on longshots with essentially zero chance of winning.
The MVP is a quarterback award.
While I’m not breaking ground with that assertion, it’s critical to note it has gone to a quarterback in 12 straight seasons and 17 of the previous 18.
Adrian Peterson’s 2012 MVP season was the only one by a non-quarterback during that period.
Additionally, team success is another constant for the recent MVP recipients.
Nine of the last 12 MVP quarterbacks have played for the No. 1 seed in their conference, and the three outliers quarterbacked the No. 2 seed.
Given the importance of team success for a quarterback’s MVP case, Brock Purdy’s +3000 odds (BetMGM) stand out as a nifty value.
Unfortunately for the 49ers, they endured a plethora of injuries in 2024, resulting in missing the postseason after their heartbreaking Super Bowl loss the prior season.
The 49ers are positioned to bounce back this year.
According to the Vegas forecasted win totals, the 49ers have the easiest strength of schedule in 2025.
San Francisco’s 2025 Vegas win total is 10.5, tied for the second-highest in the NFC, just one behind Philadelphia’s total of 11.5.
If the 49ers capture the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Purdy would likely be one of the top candidates to win MVP.
Of course, Purdy would need to check other boxes.
Advanced metrics and efficiency have carried significant weight with voters in the past 12 years.
Seven of the last 12 MVPs have ranked first or tied for first in ESPN’s QBR metric, two have ranked second, one has ranked third, one has ranked fourth, and Cam Newton was 11th in his MVP campaign in 2015.
As eye-catching as the QBR ranks were for the last 12 MVPs, expected points added (EPA) was a more critical measure.
Nine of the past 12 MVPs were first in EPA, Aaron Rodgers was third in 2021, Newton was fifth in 2015, and Lamar Jackson was sixth in 2023.
Purdy was first in QBR in 2023.
Moreover, Purdy’s 0.26 EPA/dropback in 2023 cleared Dak Prescott’s 0.18 EPA/dropback for the most among qualified quarterbacks.
Purdy has demonstrated the ability to produce EPA at an MVP-winning level.
Unfortunately, his 2023 is a double-edged sword.
He finished fourth in the MVP voting, behind teammate Christian McCaffrey.
Spinning things back positively for Purdy’s 2025 MVP case, his most vocal detractors have diminished Purdy’s production, attributing it to Kyle Shanahan‘s coaching and the presence of supremely talented weapons, such as CMC, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, which makes his life easier.
The 49ers traded Samuel, and Aiyuk is on the PUP list, assuring he’ll miss at least San Francisco’s first four games.
Much like Josh Allen proved he could overcome the absence of No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs in Allen’s 2024 MVP campaign, Purdy could win over some of his detractors by thriving without Samuel and, for at least the early portion of the season, Aiyuk.
It’s an outstanding time to get some action on Purdy to win the MVP at 30:1 odds.
His odds will almost certainly drop rapidly if he and the 49ers get off to a hot start.
