In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON JA’MARR CHASE’S RECEIVING YARDS PROP
Identifying a struggling rookie cornerback is a great way to gain an edge, and we may have a favorable rookie versus rookie matchup to take advantage of on Thursday night.
Cincinnati Bengals rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase has already emerged as a go-to weapon on the deep ball for Joe Burrow, with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 16.6 yards downfield. With that consistent downfield usage, he’s a good bet to go over these receiving yard props:
- 65.5 receiving yards on BetMGM
- 64.5 receiving yards on DraftKings SportsBook
- 64.5 receiving yards on FanDuel SportsBook
On Thursday night, he’s likely to find himself lined up across from Jacksonville Jaguars rookie corner Tyson Campbell, who has impressive athletic traits but has been a weak link in the Jags’ secondary so far.
Through three games (two starts), Campbell has allowed eight receptions on 12 targets in coverage, surrendering 10.2 yards per target.
Campbell’s early-career struggles aren’t surprising, as he allowed an 85.7% catch rate last season at Georgia, significantly higher than his 78.7% expected catch rate allowed.
Chase already has five targets at 20 or more yards downfield, and it would make sense for Cincinnati to attempt to pick on Campbell throughout the game, potentially allowing Chase to fly past the over on his yardage prop.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON THE DK METCALF’S RECEIVING YARDS PROP
The San Francisco 49ers’ secondary is a mess. Cornerback Jason Verrett is out of the season, Josh Norman suffered a chest injury in Week 2 which landed him in the hospital, and rookie cornerback Deommodore Lenoir has struggled while being forced into increased playing time.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Lenoir has been in coverage for 28.5% of the intended air yards against the 49ers, the fifth-highest rate in the league, so he’s clearly been identified by defenses as a weak link.
While Lenoir has specifically been picked on, teams appear unafraid to throw deep on the 49ers in general. Against the San Francisco defense, 34% of pass attempts have been 10 or more yards downfield, the eighth-highest rate in the league.
We could potentially use this logic to bet the over on Tyler Lockett’s yardage as well, but DK Metcalf leads the team with 13 targets at least 10 yards downfield (nine for Lockett).
We should assume Seattle will be on the lookout for opportunities to stretch the field against Lenoir and the rest of the 49ers secondary. Though we should also keep an eye on their injury updates and perhaps downgrade our confidence slightly if Norman returns.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON JAMES CONNER’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
In the first half of the Arizona Cardinals victory over the Jaguars, right guard Justin Murray and left guard Justin Pugh went down with injuries. The team is unsure of their availability for Sunday’s divisional showdown with the Los Angeles Rams.
The injuries are particularly concerning because Murray was already filling in at right guard for Josh Jones, who was moved to right tackle in place of the injured Kelvin Beachum, forcing third-stringer Max Garcia into action. Garcia hasn’t started a game since 2018 with the Denver Broncos.
Running behind the reconstructed offensive line in the second half, James Conner was forced to pick up 19 of his 24 yards after contact, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The line for Conner’s rushing yards won’t be high, to begin with 一 it was set to just 38.5 yards last week 一 but Arizona may be forced to abandon the run game early if this offensive line can’t hold up.
Keep an eye on the injury updates throughout the week, but if Arizona is once again forced to play musical chairs with the offensive line, there could be multiple ways to take advantage of their situation. The under on Conner’s rushing yards and attempt props are worth consideration, as is the over on Kyler Murray’s pass attempts.
