In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON JAYLEN WADDLE’S LONGEST RECEPTION PROP BET
Jaylen Waddle’s longest reception prop is available at 21.5 yards on BetMGM 一 one of the strangest prop lines of the season.
The Dolphins’ rookie receiver has just one reception over 21 yards, and it came in Week 1 with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback.
Waddle hasn’t been a big-play weapon for the Dolphins because he isn’t used to stretching the field. Much like his role at Alabama, Waddle is almost exclusively used on underneath routes, with 56% of his targets coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage and 81% within 10 yards, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Even last week without Will Fuller or Devante Parker, eight of Waddle’s 10 targets were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, perfectly keeping in line with his season average.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been susceptible to big plays this season, allowing 35 receptions of 20 or more yards, ranked 28th. However, given Waddle’s role in the offense, it’s a longshot that he produces one of those types of plays in any matchup.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
In his return from the IR, Christian McCaffrey played 49% of the Carolina Panthers’ offensive snaps last week. He’ll likely see increased usage this week, but Carolina’s offensive line may have issues clearing space for McCaffrey to run.
In last week’s loss to the New England Patriots, Carolina lost center Matt Paradis and left tackle Cam Erving.
This was already one of the league’s worst offensive line units, ranking 26th in ESPN’s run-block win rate metric.
McCaffrey does get a favorable opponent this week 一 the Arizona Cardinals allow 4.8 yards per carry 一 but that could work in our favor, elevating his rushing yards prop.
As 10-point underdogs, it’s also possible the Panthers find themselves in a negative game script early, forcing them to abandon the run 一 especially if the offensive line isn’t clearing any space.
McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop was available at 41.5 yards last week and he went over (52 yards). Given the expected snap count increase and poor Cardinals run defense, hopefully this line rises significantly. Through the first three weeks of the season, his prop was available at 65 or higher.
As long as McCaffrey’s rushing yard reaches the mid-50s, the under looks like a good bet.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON ZACK MOSS’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
Zack Moss is in the concussion protocol, but as long as he suits up he’s in a great spot against a terrible New York Jets run defense.
Based on data from Sports Info Solutions, opposing running backs are averaging +1.1 yards before contact against the Jets relative to their season average, the worst rate in the league.
This is especially noteworthy because the Jets are so frequently in game scripts which dictate a high run rate for their opponents. Most of the league’s worst teams actually hold opponents below their average, likely because they’re able to stack the box in obvious run situations.
These struggles are likely a key contributing factor to starting running backs hitting the over against the Jets defense in five of the last six weeks.
Though Devin Singletary has started every game for the Buffalo Bills, Moss has seen the bulk of the carries in victories. With Buffalo favored by 13 points in this matchup, expect a strong second-half workload for Moss.
Moss’s rushing yardage prop was available at 39.5 yards last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a game with a similar expected outcome. Assuming his line is available at a similar spot this week, take the over.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON DEONTE HARRIS’S RECEPTIONS PROP BET
Prop bets for Deonte Harris have only recently been made available, so this is a tough one to evaluate before seeing the line. After six receptions last week, it’s possible his receptions prop will be too high to take, but this is a matchup in which he should thrive.
Despite Tre’Quan Smith primarily operating in the slot, Harris leads the New Orleans Saints in receptions from the slot since Smith’s return from injury in Week 7.
Harris appears to have a specific connection with Trevor Siemian, commanding a team-high 20% target share since he took over at quarterback.
Against the Tennessee Titans, Harris will frequently be lined up across from rookie cornerback Elijah Molden. Though Tennessee’s defense has improved in recent weeks, Molden has been a weak link, allowing a 50% completion rate and 11.5 yards per target in coverage, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Harris’s receptions prop was available at 3.5 last week. If it’s available at the same number, he should hit the over in this matchup.
