In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON MAC JONES’S PASSING YARDS + RUSHING YARDS PROP
There’s reason to believe Mac Jones will have success throwing the ball against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night, but the New England Patriots probably won’t require enough passing volume for Jones to hit the over on his passing + rushing yards prop, available at 261.5 yards on BetMGM.
The reason I’m highlighting the passing + rushing yards prop, rather than just passing yards, is this number is available seven yards higher than his passing yards prop.
In 10 games, Jones has eclipsed seven rushing yards only three times 一 and one of those games was against the New Orleans Saints when he dropped back to pass a season-high 56 times. It’s also worth noting Jones’s rushing yards prop is available at 4.5, so we’re gaining an extra couple yards above what those numbers are listed at individually.
Jones has thrown for over 250 yards four times this season, but four of those games came in losses, when his passing volume was obviously elevated. The other was against the Jets.
In games where Jones drops back to pass 35 or fewer times, he averages only 196.6 yards per game. With the Patriots favored by 6.5 points against a struggling Falcons defense, we should expect his passing workload to be diminished.
Another reason for a potential lower passing volume is the short week. It’s more difficult to prepare a rookie for a short week, which probably leads to a run-heavy game plan, so long as the game script cooperates.
Over the last 10 seasons, 36 rookies have started on Thursday night 一 only nine have thrown for at least 250 yards and only 10 have attempted at least 35 passes.
All these factors add up to make this a good opportunity to bet the under on Mac Jones’s passing + rushing yards prop.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON COLE KMET’S RECEPTIONS PROP
Since Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Bill Lazor took over the play-calling duties in Week 4, they’ve gradually become more aggressive throwing the ball and it’s led to increased opportunities for Cole Kmet.
Week - Opp Targets Target Share Week 4 - DET 3 17.6% Week 5 - LV 4 20.0% Week 6 - GB 5 19.2% Week 7- TB 6 19.4% Week 8 - SF 6 22.2% Week 9 - PIT 8 27.6%
Coming off three consecutive games of at least six targets, it’s probably safe to assume Kmet’s opportunities remain in that range against the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore has been vulnerable against tight ends this season, so it would make sense for Chicago to plan on featuring Kmet in the passing attack.
Opposing tight ends have seen a league-high 87 targets against Baltimore (9.7 per game) according to Sports Info Solutions, while picking up 7.5 yards per target.
Kmet’s receptions prop was available at 2.5 over in each of his last two games and has not climbed higher than 3.5 all season. If it’s available at either of those numbers, take the over.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON DALTON SCHULTZ’S RECEIVING YARDS PROP
The receiving yards prop for Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz has been available anywhere from 21.5 to 51.5 this season, so it’s tough to predict where it may land against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. However, Schultz has been held under 20 yards in two of his last three games, so perhaps the line will fall to a range where we need to take the over.
The primary reason to favor the over on this prop is the Chiefs’ defense, which has been helpless against tight ends.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Kansas City is allowing 9.7 yards per target to tight ends, ranked 31st.
Six different tight ends have reached at least 50 receiving yards against the Chiefs, though it is worth noting they held Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller to 24 yards on seven targets in Week 10.
Given Schultz’s usage (5.7 targets per game) and the Chiefs’ defensive struggles, the over looks like a good bet so long the line stays at 45 yards or lower.