In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON JAMEIS WINSTON’S PASSING YARDS PROP
The New Orleans Saints are a run-heavy offense, but this could be an ideal matchup for Sean Payton to turn Jameis Winston loose.
According to TruMedia/PFF, Jameis Winston holds the ball for three or more seconds on 44.8% of his dropbacks 一 a concerning rate for a quarterback without elite running ability.
However, the Seattle Seahawks are among the league’s most non-threatening defenses when quarterbacks take their time.
When quarterbacks hold the ball for at least three seconds against the Seahawks defense, Seattle ranks 31st in pressure rate (45.8%) and dead last in sack rate (3.2%), per TruMedia/PFF.
To be fair, Seattle does generate pressure in under three seconds slightly above the league average rate (16.5% compared to 15.5%), but that still leaves a majority of snaps on which Winston will likely be capable of taking his sweet time to make a decision.
Seahawks Defensive Ranks When QB Holds Ball for 3+ Seconds
NFL Rank Comp Pct 56.9% 21st Yds/Att 9.8 22nd Sack Rate 3.2% 32nd INT Rate 1.7% 25th Comp Pct 10+ Yds Downfield 53.3% 23rd
Source: TruMedia/PFF
It’s also worth noting Seattle may be without leading pass-rusher Darrell Taylor. After being carted off the field last Sunday night, Taylor’s status is currently up in the air.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Taylor leads Seattle with a 12.7% pressure rate.
Over the last two weeks, Winston’s passing yards prop has been around 200 yards. If it remains in that range, the over looks like a strong bet. If the number climbs above 225 yards, it might be best to stay away.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON JUSTIN FIELDS’S PASSING YARDS PROP BET
Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has simplified the offense for Justin Fields, but there’s probably not much he can do to ease the pressure Fields will face from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.
According to TruMedia, the Bucs blitz on a league-high 36.4% of opponent dropbacks, which is bad news for Fields.
Versus the blitz, Fields is averaging 4.0 passing yards per dropback, ranked 34th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks.
That rate is heavily depressed by a league-worst 20.5% sack rate when blitzed.
It’s unlikely Chicago can come up with a quick fix to help Fields in these situations because it’s an area in which he struggled in college as well.
Against his toughest competition last year (Northwestern, Indiana, Clemson, and Alabama), Fields averaged just 4.1 passing yards per dropback and a 12.2% sack rate against the blitz, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Based on these struggles, betting the under on Fields’s passing yards is likely a strong play in this game. The over on the Buccaneers’ sack total is also worth considering based on Fields’s sack rate versus the blitz.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON DAVANTE ADAMS’S RECEPTIONS PROP BET
As the Green Bay Packers’ primary slot receiver, Davante Adams is in an ideal spot for a big game against the Washington Football Team on Sunday.
Opposing slot receivers are averaging 16.8 targets per game against Washington, making up 49% of all pass attempts against its defense, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Notable slot receivers to feast on the Washington defense:
- Cole Beasley: 11 receptions for 98 yards
- Keenan Allen: 9 receptions for 100 yards
- Tyreek Hill: 9 receptions for 76 yards
- Sterling Sheppard: 9 receptions for 94 yards
Adams sees 55% of his targets while lined up in the slot, and accounts for 44% of the team’s targets to slot receivers.
Knowing Adams sees a heavy workload regardless of matchup 一 he’s had nine or more targets in four of six games 一 and this is a matchup opponents have attacked against Washington, we can expect a heavy dose of Adams in the Packers’ game plan.
Adams’s receptions prop bet has consistently been set to 7.5 this season. Assuming it’s available at that number or lower, the over looks like the bet to place.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON JOE BURROW’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
Entering Week 6, all but four of Joe Burrow’s rushing attempts were kneel-downs or quarterback sneaks, according to Sports Info Solutions. Then last week against the Detroit Lions, Burrow scrambled five times for 20 yards.
Since Burrow was returning from a season-ending injury in 2020 and likely not at full health to start the season, it’s possible his lack of scrambling was strategic to preserve his health.
If Burrow is becoming more comfortable with his mobility again, we can probably assume he won’t hold anything back with first place on the line against the Baltimore Ravens.
In 2020, Burrow averaged 14.2 rushing yards per game, but his rushing yardage prop has been available in the single digits every week this season.
Assuming this prop is available in the single digits again, we should feel good betting on Burrow to reach at least 10 rushing yards against the Ravens.
