In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON DEANDRE HOPKINS’S RECEIVING YARDS PROP BET
I’ve been hesitant to bet the rookie cornerback angle against the Green Bay Packers in recent weeks because the injury to Jaire Alexander diminished the value in targeting rookie Eric Stokes. However, we’ve now seen three games of Stokes on the field without Alexander and he’s still getting picked on at a high rate.
In his last three games. Stokes has been targeted on a team-high 18.4% of opponents’ pass attempts while accounting for 31% of air yards against the Packers defense, according to Sports Info Solutions.
In that span, Stokes has allowed 10.7 yards per target, while primarily lining up against Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, and Terry McLaurin.
On Thursday night, DeAndre Hopkins is the likely beneficiary, as the Arizona Cardinals’ primary downfield weapon on the outside. Betting the over on these props looks like the move to make this week:
- 63.5 receiving yards on BetMGM
- 63.5 receiving yards on DraftKings
- 64.5 receiving yards on FanDuel
When Kyler Murray targets his outside receivers at least 10 yards downfield, Hopkins commands a 53% target share.
This could potentially be a good matchup for A.J. Green as well. Though his volume isn’t as strong as Hopkins, 51% of his targets have come at least 10 yards downfield and he lines up almost exclusively on the outside, meaning he’s also likely to get a fair number of reps opposite Stokes.
Green’s receiving yards prop is available at 44.5 yards on BetMGM 一 a number he’s eclipsed in four of the last five weeks.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON DK METCALF’S RECEIVING YARDS PROP BET
Jacksonville Jaguars rookie cornerback Tyson Campbell is expected to return to the field this week. In three games as a starter prior to his injury, Campbell was targeted on 25% of opponents’ pass attempts and those targets accounted for 29% of air yards against the Jaguars defense, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Rookie cornerbacks are often targeted at high rates, and Campbell is clearly getting picked on this season.
Campbell will likely line up across from a few different Seattle Seahawks receivers, but since DK Metcalf lines up on the outside at a higher rate than Tyler Lockett, he’s likely to see more opportunities against Campbell.
Metcalf also leads the team with 22 targets and 14 receptions at 10 or more yards downfield 一 the type of targets on which Campbell has been most vulnerable.
During Campbell’s three starts he allowed five receptions on eight targets for 138 yards when targeted at least 10 yards downfield.
This is an issue that dates back to Campbell’s college career at Georgia, as he allowed a 55.6% completion rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield, which ranked 28th out of 31 qualified SEC defensive backs, according to Sports Info Solutions.
We should feel less confident in Metcalf with Geno Smith at quarterback than with a healthy Russell Wilson, but the line will likely reflect the downgrade. With Wilson at quarterback, Metcalf’s receiving yards prop was consistently available at 75.5 yards, but dropped down to 61.5 last week.
If Metcalf’s yardage prop is available around 60 yards again, he should be able to get behind the Campbell and the Jaguars secondary a few times and hit the over.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON JUSTIN FIELDS’S PASSING YARDS PROP BET
The under on Justin Fields’s passing yards prop was a winner for us last week, and I’m going back for more, albeit for slightly different reasons.
Last week I cited Fields’s extreme struggles against the blitz and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ league-high blitz rate. The San Francisco 49ers blitz on 22.9% of opponents’ dropbacks, according to Sports Info Solutions, which ranks 15th. It would be wise for the 49ers to blitz Fields more this week, but that rate isn’t high enough for us to count on that factoring in.
The 49ers do, however, have the league’s best defense against play-action, allowing just 6.2 yards per attempt.
Since taking over as the Chicago Bears’ starter, 28% of Fields’s attempts have been off play-action and 34% of his yardage.
Justin Fields with/without play-action
Yds/Att Comp% INT Rate EPA per Dropback w/ Play Action 8.0 68.8% 0.0% -0.01 w/out Play Action 5.8 53.6% 6.0% -0.46
Source: Sports Info Solutions
Quarterbacks have gone under their passing yardage prop against the San Francisco 49ers in five consecutive weeks 一 only Jared Goff has hit the over, back in Week 1.
Though San Francisco has struggled overall, first-time defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans has done a nice job this season. Per Sports Info Solutions, opponents have gained positive EPA on just 39.6% of pass plays, the second-lowest rate in the league.
Knowing the Bears are trying to keep things simple for Fields early in his career, it’s unlikely they’ll develop a game plan capable of exposing the 49ers’ defense and the under is likely to hit for Fields again if it’s available north of 200 yards, where it has been each of the last three weeks.
