The Super Bowl LVI matchup is set between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, so let’s break down a few Super Bowl player props worth betting on this week.
We’ll kick things off with a few of Joe Burrow’s quarterback prop bets you should consider for the Super Bowl.
CONSIDER THE UNDER: JOE BURROW, LONGEST RUSHING PROP BET
Based on the Los Angeles Rams’ defensive tendencies, the under on Joe Burrow’s longest rushing prop looks like a strong bet, available at these numbers at some popular sportsbooks:
- 8.5 rushing yards on BetMGM (+100)
- 8.5 rushing yards on DraftKings Sportsbook (-105)
Including the postseason, Burrow has only three carries for longer than eight yards, none of which were designed runs. One of those (an 11-yard run) came against the Baltimore Ravens when the defense dropped eight men in coverage 一 a strategy the Rams used only 13 times all year.
Burrow’s rushing opportunities should also be diminished by the Rams’ tendency to blitz. Though Burrow is a good athlete, he doesn’t scramble to escape the blitz.
According to TruMedia/PFF, of Burrow’s 49 rush attempts this season, only four came on scrambles against the blitz for gains of three, three, four, and five yards.
When the game is within one score, the Rams blitz at the league’s fifth-highest rate (33.8%), so we should expect fewer scrambling opportunities for Burrow than he had against a Kansas City Chiefs’ defense which blitzed on just 16.7% of Burrow’s dropbacks in the AFC Championship Game.
Based on the Rams’ tendencies and Burrow’s track record, the odds are definitely in favor of the under on Joe Burrow’s longest rush prop.
Similar logic could also be used to argue in favor of betting the under on Burrow’s rushing yards prop, available at 11.5 (-125) on BetMGM. Burrow reached at least 12 rushing yards in only three games this season.
CONSIDER THE OVER: JOE BURROW, TOTAL PASSING YARDS PROP BET
If you’re interested in betting on Burrow’s total passing yards prop bet, consider taking the over on these numbers available at some popular sportsbooks:
- 276.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
- 276.5 passing yards on DraftKings Sportsbook (-115)
- 276.5 passing yards on FanDuel Sportsbook (-114)
There’s less reason to be confident in this prop than Burrow’s longest rush, but it’s worth noting some trends that should make us lean towards the over.
As previously mentioned, the Rams are likely to blitz Burrow at an elevated rate. Though his tendency to take sacks is concerning, the Bengals are also capable of producing explosive plays against the blitz.
Burrow has been blitzed on at least 30% of his dropbacks in five games this season. In those five contests, he averaged 10.0 yards per attempt, compared to 8.3 in his other 14 games.
The Bengals have also become a more pass-heavy offense late this season. In their last five games (excluding Week 18, when many starters rested), the Bengals have thrown the ball on first and second down at a 62.5% rate, compared to 53.7% through their first 14 games.
Burrow’s passing yards prop doesn’t seem to have adjusted to the Bengals’ new pass-first tendency, as it remains in a range similar to early this season.
Given these trends and the possibility Burrow is playing from behind in the second half, the over looks like the direction to go if you’re playing Burrow’s passing yards prop.
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 56 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.