The Super Bowl LVI matchup is set between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, so let’s break down a few Super Bowl player props worth betting on this week.
Here’s a dive into some of Joe Mixon’s running back prop bets you should consider for the Super Bowl.
CONSIDER THE UNDER: JOE MIXON, TOTAL RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
Based on the Rams’ stingy run defense, taking the under on Joe Mixon’s rushing yards looks like a good bet at these numbers available on some popular sportsbooks.
- 64.5 rushing yards on BetMGM (-115)
- 64.5 rushing yards on DraftKings Sportsbook (-120)
- 63.6 rushing yards on FanDuel Sportsbook (-114)
These are surprisingly high yardage totals given Mixon’s recent performance and the Rams’ run defense. In fact, only San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell (in all three games) has been given a rushing yards prop higher than 64.5 against the Rams this season.
As the Bengals have transitioned to a more pass-heavy offense late in the year, Mixon has reached 65 or more rushing yards only twice in his last eight games.
The Rams run defense is among the best in the league against all offensive formations, but we’ll focus on 11 personnel since it accounts for 66% of Mixon’s carries.
Against 11 personnel, the Rams allow 3.9 yards per attempt to running backs (ranked second) and contact the ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage on 46% of attempts (ranked eighth) per TruMedia/PFF.
Those are concerning numbers for Mixon, who already struggles to find room to run, getting contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 49% of his carries in 11 personnel, the third-highest rate in the league.
In addition to some expected struggles running the ball, the Bengals are becoming a more pass-heavy team.
One way to analyze the Bengals’ pass/rush tendencies is to look at their first down rush rate in a one-score game through the first three quarters (when any play call should still be on the table).
In this scenario, the Bengals ran the ball at a 55% rate through Week 15. In their last six games, however, that rate has dropped to 44% and has been below 50% in five of the six contests, according to TruMedia.
Since Cincinnati is already trending towards becoming a more pass-heavy offense and there’s reason to think they’ll struggle to run the ball against Los Angeles, it’s probably safe to bet on a light run-game workload for Mixon.
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 56 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.