The 2024 College Football season is right around the corner, which means it is time to start looking for the best win total bets for the upcoming season.
In this series, I will take a look at win total bets for a few appealing teams in each of the four major conferences.
There are many more futures available in our 2024 College Football Futures package.
With that out of the way, let’s dive into the Big Ten.
Best Bet: Iowa Over 7.5 wins
Iowa can no longer pick apart the rotting carcass of the Big Ten West.
And yet, somehow, the Hawkeyes lucked into what is arguably the conference’s easiest schedule once again.
A road trip to Columbus is on the slate, but Iowa avoids Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, and USC.
Ohio State is the only game we should assume is a loss on the Iowa schedule.
Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Nebraska are likely the Hawkeyes’ next toughest opponents, but all three contests are at home.
Beyond the favorable schedule, we should have faith in Iowa’s ability to maintain its identity as a team that runs the ball well and dominates on defense.
The Hawkeyes return five of their six primary offensive linemen from a season ago, all of whom made at least seven starts last year.
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Best Bet: Maryland Under 6.5 wins
Maryland went 7-5 in the regular season last year despite having a four-year starter at quarterback (Taulia Tagovailoa).
This season, there’s a quarterback battle between Billy Edwards Jr. and NC State transfer MJ Morris.
The Terps have some capable weapons at receiver, but the quarterback situation may not be able to take advantage of the talent.
Last year at NC State, Morris completed just 30% of his throws at 10 or more yards downfield, and he can’t blame the talent around him. His teammate Brennan Armstrong posted a 44% completion rate on those throws.
Expect the Terps defense to take a step back as well. Last year’s squad ranked 100th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.
They did nothing in the offseason to address the situation. The only notable defensive transfer portal addition was Bowling Green cornerback Jalen Huskey.
Road trips to Oregon and Penn State are likely losses, but we can count a matchup against Villanova as an easy win.
That means Maryland must go 6-3 in games that are closer to a toss up, an unlikely win percentage for a team expecting poor quarterback play.
The schedule also calls for road trips to Virginia, Indiana, and Minnesota. An 0-3 mark in those contests would not be shocking given the team’s inexperience at key positions.
Best Bet: Purdue Under 4.5 wins
Purdue got destroyed by the transfer portal, most notably losing pass-rusher Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) and receiver Deion Burks (Oklahoma).
A brutal schedule doesn’t help either, with a visit from Notre Dame and a road trip to Oregon State.
We can probably count Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State as locked-in losses for the Boilermakers.
That leaves eight potentially winnable games in which Purdue would need to go 5-3 to hit the over.
Among those eight games are road trips to Oregon State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan State.
Purdue was winless in conference road games last year, and a drastic turnaround after losing their best offensive and defensive playmakers is unlikely.
