College Bowl Game Predictions, Picks & Analysis for Every Game

The matchups for every 2025 Bowl Game as well as the College Football Playoff field have been announced.

The only thing left to do is dominate your bowl pick 'em pool.

We are here to help with predictions and analysis for every 2025 Bowl Game as well as some strategies to use in your bowl pick 'em pool.

These picks will continue to be updated throughout bowl season, especially as we get news of players opting out.

Since players opting out and transferring can wildly swing expectations for a game, it's advisable to join a pool in which you can change your selections up until the kickoff of each bowl game.

Current Record: 31-13

2025 Bowl Game Picks:

 

2025 Bowl Game Analysis and Predictions, Every Bowl Game:

CFP Semifinals: Oregon vs. Indiana

• Predicted Winner: Oregon
• Confidence Points: 6-10 points

CFP Semifinals Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Oregon vs. Indiana in the College Football Playoff!

CFP Semifinals: Ole Miss vs. Miami

• Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
• Confidence Points: 1-5 points

CFP Semifinals Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Ole Miss vs. Miami in the College Football Playoff!

National Championship Game: TBD

• Predicted Winner: Coming soon!
• Confidence Points: Coming soon!

National Championship Game Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Completed Bowls:

CFP Quarterfinals: Miami vs. Ohio State

• Predicted Winner: Ohio State
• Confidence Points: 31-35 points

Texas A&M vs. Ohio State Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Miami vs. Ohio State in the College Football Playoff!

CFP Quarterfinals: Oregon vs. Texas Tech

• Predicted Winner: Oregon
• Confidence Points: 26-30 points

Oregon vs. Texas Tech Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Oregon vs. Texas Tech in the College Football Playoff!

CFP Quarterfinals: Alabama vs. Indiana

• Predicted Winner: Indiana
• Confidence Points: 36-40 points

Alabama vs. Indiana Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Alabama vs. Indiana in the College Football Playoff!

CFP Quarterfinals: Ole Miss vs. Georgia

• Predicted Winner: Georgia
• Confidence Points: 31-35 points

Ole Miss vs. Georgia Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Ole Miss vs. Georgia in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: Alabama at Oklahoma

• Predicted Winner: Alabama
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Alabama-Oklahoma Analysis:

Click here for a full breakdown of Alabama vs. Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: Miami at Texas A&M

• Predicted Winner: Miami
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Miami-Texas A&M Analysis:

Click here for a full breakdown of Miami vs. Texas A&M in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: Tulane at Ole Miss

• Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Tulane-Ole Miss Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Tulane vs. Ole Miss in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: James Madison at Oregon

• Predicted Winner: Oregon
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

James Madison-Oregon Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of James Madison vs. Oregon in the College Football Playoff!

Celebration Bowl: Prairie View A&M vs. South Carolina State

• Predicted Winner: Prairie View A&M
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Celebration Bowl Analysis: 

Prairie View A&M is participating in its first Celebration Bowl after pulling off an upset of Jacksonville State to win the SWAC for the first time since 2009.

South Carolina State is in this game for the third time in the last five years, having lost last year and won in 2021.

Prairie View is the more balanced team, ranking third in scoring defense and 31st in scoring offense, whereas South Carolina State ranks 28th on offense and 63rd on defense. 

The Panther defense should be taken seriously, especially after holding a dangerous Jackson State offense to a season-low 244 yards. 

LA Bowl: Boise State vs. Washington

• Predicted Winner: Washington
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

LA Bowl Analysis: 

Boise State wants to run the ball with Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, but that won’t be easy against a strong Washington defense. 

Check out the Huskies' opponent-adjusted numbers against the run: 

• Yards before contact allowed: ranked 15th
• Yards after contact allowed: ranked 14th

Boise’s offensive line also might take a hit if left tackle Kage Casey opts out (he’s already declared for the NFL Draft). 

Washington is not expected to have any opt-outs, which should allow the Huskies to have their way with a shaky Broncos defense. 

Washington ranks 11th in the country in explosive play rate, while Boise’s defense ranks 121st. 

Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy vs. Jacksonville State

• Predicted Winner: Jacksonville State
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Salute to Veterans Bowl Analysis: 

Troy might be without starting quarterback Goose Crowder, who was injured in the Sun Belt Championship game, though backup Tucker Kilcrease started seven games when Crowder was injured earlier this year. 

The potential quarterback change probably doesn’t make a significant impact, as neither handles pressure well, which could be a deciding factor in this contest. 

Check out how these teams stack up in the pass protection battle based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:

• Troy: ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
• Jacksonville State: ranked 32nd in pressure rate generated

This is problematic because Kilcrease and Crowder rank 146th and 149th, respectively, out of 153 qualifiers in sack rate versus pressure. 

Troy might also be without starting running back Tae Meadows, who is planning to enter the portal. 

Jacksonville State throws the ball at a rate 12% below expected based on situation data from Campus2Canton, and meets a friendly run defense in Troy. 

The Gamecocks' spread offense creates light boxes for its running backs 62% of the time, which could exploit a weakness in the Trojan defense. 

Troy is used to playing with light boxes due to its 3-3-5 scheme, but has been helpless against the run, allowing 6.0 yards per attempt to running backs when in a light box (ranked 108th). 

Cam Cook, a former four-star recruit who transferred in from TCU, should run all over the Trojan defense.

Cure Bowl: Old Dominion vs. South Florida

• Predicted Winner: Old Dominion
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Cure Bowl Analysis: 

Old Dominion has one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, but will be without starting quarterback Colton Joseph, who has entered the portal, likely in search of a power-conference program to suit up for in 2026. 

Joseph is a capable passer but also led the Monarchs in rushing yards — his 1,107 yards on the ground (excluding sacks) rank third among FBS quarterbacks. 

Redshirt-freshman Quinn Henicle will start in place of Joseph. 

Henicle may keep the offense on track, as we saw his running ability on display in a start against Arkansas State last year when he ran for 220 yards, excluding sacks. 

However, that was a terrible Arkansas State defense (ranked 125th in rushing defense), and the Bulls likely pose more of a challenge. 

Henicle should also have some success with ODU’s quick-strike passing attack, which could exploit a weakness in USF’s defense. 

Old Dominion has relied on quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) at the nation’s highest rate (79%), and USF’s defense only ranks 66th in yards per attempt allowed against those types of plays. 

Although Joseph is a significant loss for ODU, offseason moves have hit USF considerably harder.

They will be without head coach Alex Golesh and a few other offensive coaches (all headed to Auburn) as well as quarterback Byrum Brown (who is serving as an assistant coach instead). 

Unlike ODU, the Bulls don’t have a similar quarterback to plug in. 

Brown is a run-first quarterback, leading USF with 1,121 yards (excluding sacks). 

Sixth-year senior Gaston Moore, a transfer from Tennessee, will make his first career start in Brown’s place. 

Moore has played 220 offensive snaps in his career, carrying the ball just 11 times for 51 yards, so expect USF to lean more on its running backs and the quick passing game. 

USF utilizes quick dropbacks at the nation’s second-highest rate (62%), but ODU ranks 15th in the country in yards per attempt allowed against those plays. 

It’s also worth noting ODU has just one bowl victory in program history (2016 Bahamas Bowl), so there could be stronger motivation on that side of the field. 

68 Ventures Bowl: Louisiana vs. Delaware

• Predicted Winner: Delaware
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

68 Ventures Bowl Analysis: 

Louisiana leans heavily on the run, which could be problematic for a struggling Delaware defense. 

According to Campus2Canton, Louisiana runs the ball at a rate 9.2% above expected based on situational data. 

The Ragin' Cajuns certainly don’t have a dominant run game, but they should be able to handle Delaware based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Louisiana: ranked 76th in yards before contact
• Delaware: ranked 92nd in yards before contact allowed
• Louisiana: ranked 88th in yards after contact
• Delaware: ranked 113th in yards after contact allowed

The Blue Hens might be able to keep pace with their passing attack, however, as Louisiana’s lack of pass rush has made it vulnerable to pass-heavy offenses. 

Delaware throws the ball at a rate 10% above expected, and quarterback Nick Minicucci should have plenty of protection based on these opponent-adjusted stats:

• Delaware: ranked 64th in pressure rate allowed
• Louisiana: ranked 129th in pressure rate generated

Delaware’s ability to protect Minicucci is impressive given the rate at which he takes traditional dropbacks (three or more steps). 

Minicucci’s 65% traditional dropback rate is the 10th highest in the country, which tends to invite more pressure, but that won’t be an issue against Louisiana. 

The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 133rd in pressure rate generated against traditional dropbacks and 89th in yards per attempt allowed. 

Delaware went 4-2 this season when Minicucci was pressured on fewer than 30% of his dropbacks, and Louisiana only generated a pressure rate that high four times. 

Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

• Predicted Winner: Missouri State
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Xbox Bowl Analysis: 

Missouri State runs a pass-heavy offense but struggles to protect quarterback Jacob Clark, which could be an issue in this matchup. 

Check out the pass-protection battle based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Missouri State: ranked 118th in pressure rate allowed
• Arkansas State: ranked 84th in pressure rate generated

When the Bears are able to protect Clark, however, there will be plenty of big plays to be had against this Red Wolves defense. 

Missouri State’s offense ranks 14th in explosive play rate, while Arkansas State’s defense ranks 98th. 

Expect most of those big plays to come in the downfield passing game, as Clark ranks 10th in completion rate at 15 or more yards downfield (53%). 

The Red Wolves defense ranks 91st in completion rate allowed at that depth. 

If Missouri State protects Clark enough to have some success in the downfield passing game, Arkansas State might struggle to keep pace. 

The Red Wolves rank 121st in opponent-adjusted scoring offense and 118th in explosive play rate, so this is not a team built for a shootout. 

Missouri’s State’s weakness on defense is its run defense, but Arkansas State does not appear built to exploit that flaw based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Arkansas State: ranked 92nd in yards before contact
• Missouri State: ranked 89th in yards before contact allowed
• Arkansas State: ranked 121st in yards after contact
• Missouri State: ranked 100th in yards after contact allowed

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan

• Predicted Winner: Kennesaw State
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Myrtle Beach Bowl Analysis: 

Western Michigan runs a slow-paced, run-heavy offense, simply trying to bleed the clock and win low-scoring games with its defense. 

Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, Western Michigan runs the ball at a rate 11% above expected. 

Check out a few more key stats to sum up the Broncos offense:

• Ranked 115th in pace of play
• Ranked 107th in opponent-adjusted scoring offense
• Ranked 127th in explosive play rate

Western Michigan’s rushing attack worked against some of the weaker defenses in the MAC, but it is not a consistent unit and might struggle in this match based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Western Michigan: ranked 126th in yards before contact
• Kennesaw State: ranked 109th in yards before contact allowed
• Western Michigan: ranked 104th in yards after contact
• Kennesaw State: ranked 68th in yards after contact allowed

Kennesaw State runs a spread offense, leaning slightly more heavily on the run game, where it may have an edge against the Bronco defense. 

The spread scheme creates a light box for Owl running backs 68% of the time. 

Western Michigan is allowing 5.7 yards per attempt with a light box, ranked 101st. 

Expect Owls’ quarterback Amari Odom to take some shots downfield in the passing game and potentially swing momentum with some big plays. 

Odom ranks second in the country with a 63% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield.

It's also worth mentioning that this is Kennesaw State's first bowl game, and it's just six hours from campus.

Western Michigan is in a bowl game for the second straight year and the eighth time in the last 12 years, so the Owls may have more motivation in this game as well as a crowd advantage.

Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis vs. NC State

• Predicted Winner: NC State
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Gasparilla Bowl Analysis: 

The biggest question entering this game is: Does Memphis want to be here?

After starting 6-0 and looking like a serious playoff contender, Memphis went 2-4 down the stretch before losing head coach Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas (he will not coach in this game). 

Memphis runs a balanced offense but might lean more heavily on the run game due to these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Memphis: ranked 23rd in yards before contact
• NC State: ranked 49th in yards before contact allowed
• Memphis: ranked 62nd in yards after contact
• NC State: ranked 112 in yards after contact allowed

The key to NC State’s offense is protecting quarterback CJ Bailey, who takes a traditional dropback at the nation’s sixth-highest rate. 

Traditional dropbacks invite extra pressure, but Memphis only ranks 76th in pressure rate against traditional dropbacks (41%) and 113th in yards per attempt allowed (9.0). 

NC State's star running back Hollywood Smothers has opted out and plans on entering the transfer portal, but he missed some action earlier this year and freshman Duke Scott easily filled in.

Scott is expected to take over as the starter next season and there should be minimal dropoff in production, if any.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State vs. Utah State

• Predicted Winner: Utah State
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Analysis: 

Washington State head coach Jimmy Rogers has already left for Iowa State, and at least 13 players have stated their intention to enter the portal. 

Some of those players will remain with the team, but starting running back Kirby Vorhees is among those who have left the program. 

The Cougars favor the passing game and should be able to protect quarterback Zevi Eckhaus against a Utah State pass rush ranked 111th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated. 

Eckhaus isn’t much of a downfield passer, so Washington State typically attacks on underneath routes, which doesn’t look like a great plan of attack based on these numbers on throws five or fewer yards downfield from Sports Info Solutions:

• Washington State: 5.0 yards per attempt, ranked 96th
• Utah State: 4.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 33rd

Utah State runs a relatively balanced offense but should probably try to avoid the passing game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Utah State: ranked 134th in pressure rate allowed
• Washington State: ranked 58th in pressure rate generated

Fortunately for the Aggies, they appear to hold a considerable advantage in the run game. 

Washington State’s run defense has been routinely gashed this year, giving up three or more yards before contact to running backs on 31% of attempts (ranked 112th). 

Quarterback Bryson Barnes also plays a critical role in the run game, averaging 78.0 yards per game, excluding sacks.

Boca Raton Bowl: Louisville vs. Toledo

• Predicted Winner: Louisville
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Boca Raton Bowl Analysis: 

Both teams have been hurt by out-outs, but Toledo will likely be without more key players in a matchup it was unlikely to win even at full strength. 

Most notably, Rockets quarterback Tucker Gleason is injured and will not play, setting redshirt-freshman Kalieb Osborne up for his first career start. 

Louisville will be without two starting defensive linemen, but Toledo’s left tackle also opted out, so the edge in pass protection likely remains with the Cardinals based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Toledo: ranked 68th in pressure rate allowed
• Louisville: ranked 38th in pressure rate generated

Louisville will be without leading receiver Chris Bell (injury), but receiver Caullin Lacy and quarterback Miller Moss are expected to play. 

Toledo had a strong pass-rush unit during the regular season, but probably lacks the depth to replace opt-out Malachi Davis, who led the team in pressures and sacks.

New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

• Predicted Winner: Western Kentucky
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

New Orleans Bowl Analysis: 

Western Kentucky throws the ball at a rate 10% above expected, according to Campus2Canton, and should have success in this matchup with its quick passing attack. 

The Hilltoppers use quick dropbacks 40% of the time and should lean heavily on those plays in this game as Southern Miss ranks 107th in yards per attempt allowed against quick dropbacks (7.4), per Sports Info Solutions. 

Western Kentucky is also likely to capitalize on its scoring opportunities based on these red zone touchdown conversion rate stats:

• Western Kentucky: 70% conversion rate, ranked 24th
• Southern Miss: 70% conversion rate allowed, ranked 117th

Southern Miss runs a more balanced offense and has a knack for producing explosive plays. 

The Golden Eagles rank 30th in explosive play rate, while the Hilltoppers defense ranks 106th. 

However, Western Kentucky also excels at generating negative plays, which has allowed it to force opponents into third-and-long situations at the nation’s 14th highest rate. 

Southern Miss only ranks 65th in third-and-long avoidance. 

Be sure to check back on the opt-out status of Southern Miss players shortly before kickoff because head coach Charles Huff is headed to Memphis. 

Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson was promoted to head coach, however, which may increase the likelihood of players sticking around. 

Frisco Bowl: UNLV vs. Ohio

• Predicted Winner: UNLV
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Frisco Bowl Analysis: 

Ohio head coach Brian Smith was recently fired for some wild off-field misconduct allegations, so it’s anyone’s guess what level of motivation the Bobcats have entering this game. 

UNLV has one of the most dangerous offenses in the country and ranks ninth in explosive play rate, while Ohio’s defense ranks 81st by the same metric. 

Expect the Rebels to attack downfield early and often in an effort to exploit the Bobcats’ greatest weakness. 

Outside the red zone, UNLV throws 15 or more yards downfield 29% of the time, the 11th highest rate. 

Anthony Colandrea ranks 29th in completion rate on those throws (48%), while Ohio’s defense ranks 119th (49%), per Sports Info Solutions.

Ohio leans on a run-heavy approach and will likely try to slow this game down by controlling the ball with its ground game. 

UNLV’s run defense has been inconsistent at best, but Ohio’s spread offense plays into the Rebels’ hands. 

Check out UNLV’s run defense by box type:

• Light box: 5.3 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 72nd
• Stacked box: 6.2 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 134th

On average, teams allow 0.9 fewer yards with a stacked box, whereas UNLV’s numbers swing the opposite direction. 

This is noteworthy because Ohio running backs have only faced a stacked box 37% of the time due to its spread formations. 

When Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro drops back to pass, he will likely be swarmed by the Rebels’ pass rush based on these opponent-adjusted numbers:

• Ohio: ranked 118th in pressure rate allowed
• UNLV: ranked 35th in pressure rate generated

So if UNLV can build a lead and force Ohio into a more pass-heavy game plan, the Rebels should be able to pull away.

Hawaii Bowl: California vs. Hawaii

• Predicted Winner: California
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Hawaii Bowl Analysis:

Hawaii runs one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the country but it's a unit that has struggled to produce the explosive plays head coach Timmy Chang is hoping for with his run-and-shoot scheme. 

The Rainbow Warriors rank 101st in explosive play rate 一 one of the few matchups in which Cal has had an edge in this area, as its defense ranks 80th by the same metric. 

On the other side of the ball Cal has a massive edge in the explosive play department, ranking 36th compared to Hawaii’s defense at 102nd. 

Hawaii will have a chance to slow Cal down with its pass rush, which should hold an edge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• California: ranked 110th in pressure rate allowed
• Hawaii: ranked 25th in pressure rate generated

When Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has time, expect Cal to take some shots downfield as the Golden Bears throw 15 or more yards downfield at the 36th highest rate outside the red zone. 

Sagapolutele is completing 51% of his throws at that depth, ranked 21st, while Hawaii’s defense ranks 66th in completion rate allowed. 

Cal’s offense has been wildly inconsistent due to the ups and downs of Sagapolutele, a true freshman.

Expect Sagapolutele to look more sharp in this contest having had a few weeks to prepare for a mediocre defense. 

Hawaii is playing on its home field in this game, but that hasn’t proven to be an advantage historically as the Warriors are just 5-4 in the Hawaii bowl. 

Holiday Bowl: Arizona vs. SMU

• Predicted Winner: SMU
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Holiday Bowl Analysis: 

Both teams will be close to full strength in a surprisingly strong matchup for a post-New Year’s Day bowl game. 

SMU leans on Kevin Jennings and its passing attack and should have an edge in the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:

• SMU: ranked 35th in pressure rate allowed
• Arizona: ranked 80th in pressure rate generated

The Wildcats secondary has played well this year, however, allowing the ninth-lowest explosive play rate. 

Arizona also has a pass-heavy offense and while its offensive line has struggled this year, it might have success against the SMU secondary. 

Noah Fifita takes a traditional dropback 62% of the time, the 18th highest rate in the nation. 

That style of offense has been a good strategy against SMU, which is allowing 8.7 yards per attempt against traditional dropbacks, ranked 105th. 

If this is a close game, the difference-maker could be Arizona’s red zone struggles. 

Check out the matchup in the red zone:

• Arizona: ranked 108th in red zone touchdowns rate
• SMU: ranked 4th in red zone touchdown rate allowed

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State

• Predicted Winner: Wake Forest
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Duke’s Mayo Bowl Analysis: 

Wake Forest’s strength has been its defense, which ranks 36th in opponent-adjusted scoring defense and second in explosive play rate allowed. 

Mississippi State has leaned heavily on its run game but will likely be at a disadvantage against the Demon Deacons based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:

• Mississippi State: ranked 97th in yards before contact
• Wake Forest: ranked 12th in yards before contact allowed
• Mississippi State: ranked 58th in yards after contact
• Wake Forest: ranked 41st in yards after contact allowed

Mississippi State uses quick dropbacks 56% of the time, which helps mask its offensive line deficiencies. 

However, Wake leads the nation in quick dropback defense, allowing just 4.0 yards per attempt. 

The Demon Deacons will be without defensive tackle Mateen Ibirogba, but the rest of the defense starters are expected to play.

2025 Bowl Game Pick ‘Em Strategy:

In either straight-up bowl pick 'em or confidence pools, the goal is fairly simple.

Pick more correct games or score more points than everyone else.

Accomplishing that goal, however, is more involved than simply picking the games, especially in confidence pools.

In regular pick 'em pools, there will be a lot of overlap between entries.

In Splash Sports' $100K CFB Bowl Pick'em, for instance, there will be several teams with well over a 75% pick rate.

While it is not a great idea to deviate from those heavy favorites just for the fun of it, those games can offer a great opportunity to gain leverage on the field if the public is too confident in a certain team.

Often, this overconfidence is a result of the public missing important news, such as opt-outs or coaching changes.

Betting markets adjust quickly to that kind of news and are a great way to determine if the public is too confident in a specific team, since every moneyline comes with an implied probability of victory.

A -120 favorite (54.6% implied probability) selected by 80% of the field offers a great opportunity to go against the public.

Conversely, a -200 favorite (66.7% implied probability) selected by just 55% of the field is a great opportunity to go with the chalk and pick the favorite.

Identifying those situations is important because it differentiates your entry and increases your chances of winning if you get those swing games correct.

How often you need to make those swings depends on the size of your bowl pool.

In a small pool, it does not make sense to pick a ton of upsets. A few underdog picks should be enough to differentiate from a small number of entries.

A bigger pool, however, might require a bit more risk-taking to separate from the larger field.

Confidence pools add another layer to pick 'em strategy because they require entries to rank their selections, with their most confident pick usually worth 47 points and the least confident worth only 1 point.

The importance of those high-confidence games cannot be overstated. The 47-point pick is worth more than picks 1 through 9 combined.

However, those high-confidence picks also offer a great opportunity.

Assigning a higher point value to an undervalued team maximizes the advantage gained if that underdog can pull out the win.

Like with regular pick 'em pools, the size of a confidence pool affects how aggressive you should be with upset selections and their point values.

GameAbove Sports Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Northwestern

• Predicted Winner: Northwestern
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

GameAbove Sports Bowl Analysis: 

Northwestern slightly favors its rushing attack and should have success against a weak Central Michigan run defense. 

The Wildcats pro-style offense allows defenses to stack the box at a high rate, so let’s take a look at CMU’s numbers with a stacked box via Sports Info Solutions:

• 2.3 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 116th
• 4.8 yards per attempt, ranked 85th

Northwestern doesn’t have a potent passing attack, but it should have some success in this matchup as it can likely protect quarterback Preston Stone based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Northwestern: ranked 9th in pressure rate allowed
• Central Michigan: ranked 67th in pressure rate generated

Central Michigan runs the ball at a rate 14% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton. 

Since Northwestern is favored by 10.5 points, a significant amount of confidence points are likely to be wagered on the Wildcats. 

I’m not going to be as aggressive because Northwestern’s style makes it vulnerable to upsets. 

With both teams playing conservative run-heavy styles, it should be a low-scoring game which increases the odds of an upset. 

Additionally, Northwestern ranks 131st in red zone touchdown rate, while Central Michigan’s defense ranks 31st. 

So the potential exists for Northwestern to control this game, yet still struggle to put the Chippewas away. 

If you haven’t been following along with our picks and are far behind in your pool, this might be a good spot to strategically pick an upset in hopes of a significant point swing in your favor.

Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs. Minnesota

• Predicted Winner: New Mexico
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Rate Bowl Analysis: 

New Mexico runs a balanced offense and has the potential to create some problems for Minnesota with its scheme. 

In the run game, the Lobos favor spread formations which create light boxes at a high rate. 

And while New Mexico does not have a potent rushing attack, the Golden Gophers have struggled against those types of offenses, allowing 5.7 yards per attempt with a light box (ranked 101st), per Sports Info Solutions. 

In the passing game, New Mexico gets the ball out quickly, relying on quick dropbacks 42% of the time, the 34th highest rate. 

Against quick dropbacks, the Gophers are allowing 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked 89th. 

When the Lobos aren’t getting rid of the ball quickly, they’re attacking downfield 一 28% of throws outside the red zone have been at least 15 yards downfield. 

Jack Layne is completing 56% of those throws for New Mexico, while the Gophers are allowing a 51% completion rate, ranked 128th. 

Traditionally, Minnesota leans on its rushing attack but the pass game has become more prevalent this season due to some struggles on the ground. 

It will be hard to find running lanes in this matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Minnesota: ranked 131st in yards before contact
• New Mexico: ranked 19th in yards before contact allowed

Minnesota’s pro style passing attack has been moderately efficient due to a strong offensive line, but it’s hardly a unit that scares anyone. 

The Gophers rank 110th in completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards. 

Since there’s no downfield attack, Minnesota tends to attack underneath 一 53% of attempts travel five or fewer yards downfield, the 27th highest rate. 

However, the Gophers only averaged 4.7 yards per attempt on those throws , ranked 109th. 

P.J. Fleck is 6-0 in bowl games at Minnesota, so his team will likely be focused, but New Mexico will also have plenty of motivation as it is appearing in its first bowl since 2016. 

First Responder Bowl: FIU vs. UTSA

• Predicted Winner: UTSA
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

First Responder Bowl Analysis: 

If at full strength, UTSA would likely dominate this game but head coach Jeff Traylor said the Road Runners will be “a shell of themselves” due to injuries and opt-outs. 

I’m sticking with UTSA as the pick, but dropping the confidence points down considerably. 

Although UTSA uses a slightly pass-heavy approach, expect the road runners to dominate on the ground based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• UTSA: ranked 11th in yards before contact
• FIU: ranked 130th in yards before contact allowed

FIU is also expected to be without three starters in the secondary, weakening what had been one of the strengths of the team. 

The lack of secondary depth is especially concerning given FIU’s inability to get to the quarterback, as the Panthers rank 91st in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.

UTSA has been a boom-or-bust defense this year, excelling at creating negative plays but also ranking 124th in explosive play rate allowed. 

That’s a concerning trend against this FIU team which ranks 26th in explosive play rate, especially with multiple defensive starters expected to be missing for the Road Runners.

Military Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina

• Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Military Bowl Analysis: 

East Carolina will be without quarterback Katin Houser, who has opted out with intentions of entering the transfer portal. 

That leaves the Pirates with either freshman Chaston Ditta, who attempted just seven passes this season, or journeyman Mike Wright, who played more snaps at wide receiver and cornerback than quarterback this year. 

Wright, however, does have prior starting experience at Northwestern, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. 

Due to its quarterback mess, East Carolina probably tries to lean on its run game, but that’s unlikely to work out based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• East Carolina: ranked 50th in yards before contact
• Pittsburgh: ranked 21st in yards before contact allowed
• East Carolina: ranked 120th in yards after contact
• Pittsburgh: ranked 8th in yards after contact allowed

Pitt leans on a pass-heavy offense which has gotten the Panthers in trouble at times due to the inconsistency of true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. 

However, East Carolina only ranks 97th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated and likely lacks the ability to create much disruption. 

Heintschel likes to attack downfield and should have success against a Pirates defense ranked 92nd in completion rate allowed on throws of 15 or more yards outside the red zone. 

Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State vs. Clemson

• Predicted Winner: Clemson
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Pinstripe Bowl Analysis: 

Congratulations to Penn State and Clemson on being selected to the Underachiever Bowl 一 your reward is getting to play in freezing temperatures in Yankee Stadium. 

The team that wins will be the one most invested in the game, but it’s tough to guess who actually cares about this contest. 

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik says he will play, likely giving a slight edge to Clemson as most other notable players on both sides are opting out. 

Check back close to kickoff as there could be more opt-out news yet to come.

Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. Army

• Predicted Winner: Army
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Fenway Bowl Analysis: 

🚨Last minute change  – UConn appears to be without backup quarterback Nick Evers, leaving the Huskies with a fourth-string freshman quarterback. Take Army

A significant portion of UConn’s roster is planning to enter the transfer portal, some of whom may follow head coach Jim Mora to Colorado State. 

However, only quarterback Joe Fagano has stated his intention to opt out of the bowl game so far. 

Star receiver Skyler Bell (entering NFL draft) and running back Cam Edwards (entering portal), both team captains, have stated their intention to play which bodes well for others joining them. 

When at full strength, UConn is easily the better team and even the loss of Fagano isn’t a devastating blow as backup Nick Evers was the team’s primary starter in 2024. 

It’s also worth noting that UConn played Rice and Air Force this season, two of the four option-heavy offenses in the college game. 

One of the best predictors of success against the option is recent experience against the scheme. 

UConn tends to lean on the quick passing game, using quick dropbacks 42% of the time, which is likely to create issues for Army’s defense. 

Check out the matchup on quick dropbacks:

• UConn: 8.5 yards per attempt, ranked 7th
• Army: 6.8 yards per attempt, ranked 78th

Check back close to kickoff as more UConn opt out could sway me to pick Army, but as of now it looks like the Huskies have enough of their star players to win.

Pop-Tarts Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. BYU

• Predicted Winner: BYU
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Pop-Tarts Bowl Analysis: 

BYU wants to lean on its power rushing attack and Georgia Tech has one of the worst run defenses in the country. 

Check out the run-game matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• BYU: ranked 84th in yards before contact
• Georgia Tech: ranked 125th in yards before contact allowed
• BYU: ranked 22nd in yards after contact
• Georgia Tech: ranked 125th in yards after contact allowed

The Yellow Jackets also rank dead last in the FBS in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box (6.7), which is key against a fairly traditional BYU scheme which allows for stacked boxes at an elevated rate. 

The playing field may be leveled slightly due to injuries to BYU star running back LJ Martin and his backup Sione Moa, but it's unlikely Georgia Tech can stop anyone BYU sends out there. 

On offense, Georgia Tech will be without coordinator Buster Faulkner, who took the same job at Florida, leaving Chris Weinke to call plays for the first time in his career. 

Georgia Tech should also have success on the ground against a BYU defense which ranks 116th in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box. 

To BYU’s credit, however, its defense has been a bend-but-don’t-break unit this year. 

Despite some issues in defending the run, BYU ranks 29th in explosive rush rate allowed, which has forced teams to attempt to piece together long scoring drives. 

BYU's defense then locks down the red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 40% of red zone triple, ranked fifth. 

That’s a concerning trend for Georgia Tech’s offense which only ranks 86th in red zone touchdown rate. 

Arizona Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State

• Predicted Winner: Fresno State
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Arizona Bowl Analysis: 

Miami is without starting quarterback Dequan Finn who quit the team in November to focus on the NFL draft. 

In four games since Finn’s departure, Miami’s passing attack has been a mess. 

Henry Hesson and Thomas Gotkowski combined to complete 40% of their passes down the stretch, and just 23% when facing pressure. 

That’s a concerning trend based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Miami: ranked 100th in pressure rate allowed
• Fresno State: ranked 45th in pressure rate generated

Miami will likely try to lean on the run game, but it is also playing without starting running back Kenny Tracy who was lost for the year due to an injury. 

Miami’s defense is also expected to be without star pass-rusher Adam Trick, who plans to enter the portal. 

Trick generated 80 pressures and an impressive 21% pressure rate this season 一 no other Red Hawk defender generated more than 19 pressures, per Sports Info Solutions. 

MAC programs typically don’t have the depth to overcome so many critical losses.

New Mexico Bowl: North Texas vs. San Diego State

• Predicted Winner: North Texas
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

New Mexico Bowl Analysis: 

The outcome of this game could be decided by North Texas’ opt-out situation. 

Head coach Eric Morris is already gone, having taken the job at Oklahoma State. 

A number of players are expected to enter the portal, though Quarterback Drew Mestemaker is among those and is expected to play 一 his decision could set the tone for the team choosing to close the best season in school history out at full strength. 

Star running back Caleb Hawkins, who was injured in the conference title game, is also expected to suit up. 

Even at full strength this won’t be an easy matchup for the North Texas offense. 

While the Mean Green rank fifth in explosive play rate on offense, San Diego State leads the nation in explosive play rate on defense. 

This might not be the same Aztecs defense however, as coordinator Rob Aurich left for Nebraska, leaving cornerbacks coach Demetrius Sumler to call plays for the first time. 

The strength of San Diego State’s defense has been its pass rush, but North Texas can neutralize anyone’s pass rush with its quick passing attack. 

The Mean Green use quick dropbacks 53% of the time.

However, San Diego State has defended quick dropbacks well, only allowing 5.0 yards per attempt, the nation’s ninth lowest rate. 

Although this should be a tight game, as long as Mestemaker plays it's easier to trust North Texas. 

San Diego State will be without quarterback Jayden Denegal, leaving Bert Emanuel Jr. to make his first start since 2023 at Central Michigan. 

Gator Bowl: Virginia vs. Missouri

• Predicted Winner: Missouri
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Gator Bowl Analysis: 

Missouri will be without quarterback Beau Pribula (transfer portal), leaving Matt Zollers to take over. 

Zollers made two starts this season and was helpless against pressure, completing just 3 of 14 passes and taking five sacks. 

That’s a problematic trend against UVA based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Missouri: ranked 51st in pressure rate allowed
• Virginia: ranked 20th in pressure rate generated

Tigers’ star running back Ahmad Hardy will play (he’s a true sophomore), but runs into a tough test against the Cavaliers. 

Hardy has carried the ball into a stacked box 68% of the time, while UVA only allowed 3.3 yards per carry with a stacked box (ranked 14th). 

UVA quarterback Chandler Morris is expected to play as he is still hoping to remain eligible for a seventh season in 2026. 

Morris will face the best pass-rush unit he’s played against all year, as Missouri ranks eighth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate. 

Although Morris excels at avoiding sacks, pressure has significantly disrupted the UVA passing attack as Morris only averages 5.8 yards per attempt under duress. 

Missouri’s defense is the best unit in this game and reason enough to take the Tigers in a close game, but check back close to kickoff to see if opt-outs change this pick 

Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Houston

• Predicted Winner: Houston
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Texas Bowl Analysis: 

LSU will be sending its B-squad to this game against a Houston team which will be close to full strength and looking to secure a 10-win season. 

The Tigers defense carried them all year but are expected to be without at least five starters, including four of their top six pass-rushers. 

At full strength LSU would have a considerable edge in the pass protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted stats:

• Houston: ranked 96th in pressure rate allowed
• LSU: ranked 6th in pressure rate generated

If LSU’s primary area of strength is erased by opt-outs, it’s hard to envision the Tigers holding Houston’s offense down enough to win a low-scoring game. 

LSU will also be without all three linebackers, Whit Weeks, West Weeks and Harold Perkins. 

That’s problematic against Houston’s run-heavy spread offense, which creates light boxes at a high rate. 

LSU ranks 14th in yards per attempt allowed with a light box, but that success requires experienced, disciplined play from linebackers which the Tigers may be lacking. 

Although LSU likely still has the more talented roster, Houston's massive edge in experience and motivation likely wins out. 

Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State

• Predicted Winner: Georgia Southern
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Birmingham Bowl Analysis: 

This is a rare instance of a conference game getting played in a bowl since Appalachian State was a late replacement after initially not being eligible at 5-7. 

Georgia Southern held off a late Appalachian State rally to win the first meeting 25-23. 

App State has a long list of players planning to enter the transfer portal, including both quarterbacks AJ Swann and JJ Kohl, though it's possible one or both could still play. 

Georgia Southern quarterback JC French averaged 9.5 yards per attempt when these teams met in early November and should have success again. 

Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions, App State lacks the pass rush to threaten French:

• Georgia Southern: ranked 16th in pressure rate allowed
• Appalachian State: ranked 116th in pressure rate generated

Georgia Southern dominated the first matchup, but kicked four field goals inside App State’s 10-yard line. 

Although head coach Clay Helton could certainly get in his own way again with such conservative decision making, that’s unlikely against an App State defense that ranked 70th in red zone touchdown rate. 

The only reason to not put more confidence points on this game is Georgia Southern’s defense, which is one of the worst in the country against both the run and pass. 

Georgia Southern ranks 126th in opponent-adjusted scoring, so the Eagles could give this game away 一 though App State’s offense only ranks 98th by the same metric.

Independence Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech

• Predicted Winner: Louisiana Tech
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Independence Bowl Analysis: 

Louisiana Tech runs the ball at a rate 7.1% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton, and should move the ball easily against the Chanticleers. 

Coastal Carolina ranks 127th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, per Sports Info Solutions, and it allows at least three yards before contact on 30% of carries (ranked 99th). 

Third-string quarterback Trey Kuluk will likely start for the Bulldogs due to injuries, but he made two starts at the end of the year and has prior starting experience at the JUCO level. 

Kuluk adds a new dimension to the offense due to his dynamic running ability, as he ran for 310 yards in his two starts.

Coastal Carolina head coach Tim Beck was fired after the season and the team is stumbling into the bowl on a three-game losing streak, so there might not be a ton of motivation on the Chanticleers sideline.

Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs. Illinois

• Predicted Winner: Illinois
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Music City Bowl Analysis: 

Although this game is in Tennessee and less than three hours from Knoxville, don’t expect a full homefield advantage for the Vols. 

The Illini aren’t a perennial bowl team (it's just their fifth in the last 14 years), and a trip to Nashville is an easy sell to fans. 

As for the matchup, expect a shootout as defense is a weakness for both teams. 

Tennessee’s secondary has been a mess all year, partially due to an injury to potential first-round pick Jermod McCoy before the season. 

Colton Hood, the Vols most reliable corner in McCoy’s absence has opted out of this game leaving a bad secondary in serious trouble. 

Due to those issues in the secondary, Tennessee has allowed 20 or more yards on 11% of pass plays, ranked 100th. 

Expect Luke Altmyer to attack the Vols downfield early and often. 

Outside the red zone, the Illini throw 15 or more yards downfield 26% of the time, the 31st highest rate, while completing 62% of those passes, ranked second in the FBS per Sports Info Solutions. 

Illinois has struggled against the best defenses it faced this year in part due to an inconsistent offensive line. 

Even the surprising loss to Wisconsin can be explained by the Badgers ranking 23rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and generating 52% pressure rate against the Illini. 

Tennessee, however, ranks 59th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and the Illini went 4-1 while averaging 37 points per game against teams ranked outside the top 50. 

When the Vols are on offense they should also have a significant edge in the pass-protection battle as Illinois ranked 130th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and its best pass-rusher Gabe Jacas has opted out. 

Despite the lack of pass rush, Illinois’ defense has held up reasonably well due to its playmakers in the secondary. 

On throws 15 or more yards downfield outside the red zone, the Illini rank 18th in completion rate allowed. 

As a result, Illinois ranks ninth in explosive play rate allowed and should be relatively successful at limiting Tennessee’s explosive offensive attack. 

Tennessee’s leading receiver Chris Brazzell II is also among the opt-outs, which further hurts the Vols chances of finding success downfield. 

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Brazzell commanded a 35% target share.

Alamo Bowl: USC vs. TCU

• Predicted Winner: TCU
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Alamo Bowl Analysis: 

Both teams in this matchup have been hit hard by opt-outs 

Although USC is missing more players, TCU will sorely miss quarterback Josh Hoover. 

TCU will start former Vanderbilt quarterback Ken Seals, who made 22 starts for the Commoders but has barely seen the field in two years with the Horned Frogs. 

This is potentially problematic as TCU runs a pass-heavy offense, throwing the ball at a rate 7.6% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton. 

Further complicating things for TCU’s offense is the departure of coordinator Kendall Briles, who has already left the team for the same job at South Carolina. 

TCU quarterbacks have taken a quick dropback 48% of the time this year, the 19th highest rate, so Seals’ lack of experience in the offense could be problematic as timing is critical to this scheme. 

However, USC has struggled to defend quick dropbacks, ranking 109th in yards per attempt on those plays (7.5), according to Sports Info Solutions. 

USC has significantly more opt-outs than TCU, most notably star safety Kamari Ramsey, who wore the green dot for the Trojans defense. 

In four games without Ramsey (including the Iowa game, in which he played just eight snaps), USC went 2-2 while allowing a full yard per play more than the games when Ramsey was on the field. 

Safety Bishop Fitzgerald, pass-rusher Anthony Lucas and linebacker Eric Gentry have also opted out.

So the Trojans will be without arguably the four best players from an already shaky defense. 

USC will also be without leading receivers Ja’Kobi Lane, Makai Lemon and tight end Lake McRee.

That trio accounted for 66% of the Trojans receiving yards this season. 

Although USC would certainly have an offensive edge at full strength, this may be closer to an even matchup since TCU is not expected to have any defensive opt-outs. 

If USC tries to lean more on the run game due to a lack of pass-game weapons, that might play into TCU’s hand. 

The Frogs 3-3-5 defense is built to defend spread offenses like Lincoln Riley’s and TCU ranks 28th in yards per rush attempt allowed with a light box. 

The downside to TCU’s scheme is an inconsistent pass-rush unit, though that might not be an issue against USC which has struggled since left tackle Elijah Page was lost to injury. 

Quarterback Jayden Maiava faced a pressure rate of 30% or higher in each of the three games USC has played without Page. 

ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt

• Predicted Winner: Vanderbilt
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

ReliaQuest Bowl Analysis: 

As always, Kirk Ferentz’s squad uses a run-heavy offense but has struggled to consistently move the ball due to a mediocre offensive line. 

Based on opponent-adjusted numbers, the Hawkeyes rank 103rd in yards before contact (side note: how on earth did this unit win the Joe Moore Award as the nation’s best offensive line?). 

Iowa’s running backs have salvaged the run game by producing after contact, but that won’t be easy against Vanderbuilt. 

According to Sports Info Solutions, Vandy ranks 29th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact allowed. 

On offense, Vanderbilt leans on Diego Pavia as both a runner and passer. 

It will likely be hard for Iowa to get Vandy off the field, as the Commodores rank third in the nation in third-and-long avoidance. 

Iowa’s defense only forces opponents into third-and-long situations 22% of the time, ranked 76th.

Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs. Duke

• Predicted Winner: Duke
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Sun Bowl Analysis: 

Arizona State will be without injured quarterback Sam Leavitt, with journeyman Jeff Sims making his sixth start of the year. 

However, Kenny Dillingham said freshman Cam Dyer, who has never taken the field, will also see some action. 

If Dillingham is willing to let a freshman make his debut in this game, that says a lot about how seriously Arizona State is taking this contest.

Arizona State is also expected to be without its top three rushers Raleek Brown, Kyson Brown and Kanye Udoh, and leading receiver Jordan Tyson. 

Three offensive line starters are also expected to be out for the Sun Devils due to opt-outs and injuries, which is concerning against this Duke defense. 

Although Duke has had all sorts of issues on the defensive side of the ball this year, the pass rush has been its one strength. 

Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers, Duke should dominate that area of the game, especially accounting for ASU’s missing linemen:

• Arizona State: ranked 95th in pressure rate allowed
• Duke: ranked 18th in pressure rate generated

On the other side of the ball Duke ranks 17th in opponent-adjusted scoring offense and the majority of the roster, most notably quarterback Darian Mensah, is going to suit up. 

The ACC champs are trying to get to nine wins in consecutive seasons for just the second time in school history, so the Blue Devils are likely significantly more motivated than Arizona State.

Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas

• Predicted Winner: Texas
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Citrus Bowl Analysis: 

Michigan has only announced three opt-outs, so the Wolverines might be more focused than initially expected. 

Although the Sherrone Moore mess could be a distraction, it may also be serving as motivation for the players to win this game and put that sideshow behind them. 

Texas, on the other hand, will be without nearly its entire defense which was shocked by the firing of coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski.

Unfortunately for Michigan, two of its opt-outs will weaken the strength of the team. 

Leading pass-rushers Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham will not play, after accounting for 30% of the team’s pressures during the regular season. 

Michigan’s run-heavy offense likely would have had trouble with Texas during the regular season, but it’s tough to guess how this version of the Longhorns defense will perform. 

During the regular season, Texas ranked in the top 10 of both opponent-adjusted yards before and after contact. 

It’s tough to trust either team but with time to prepare, Texas’ offense should look improved and there’s still enough talent on defense to contain Michigan’s limited offense.

Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State

• Predicted Winner: Texas State
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Armed Forces Bowl Analysis: 

Texas State ranks 14th in opponent-adjusted scoring offense, while Rice ranks 132nd and will be without its starting quarterback. 

It would be shocking if Rice had enough offense to keep pace in this game.

Liberty Bowl: Navy vs. Cincinnati

• Predicted Winner: Navy
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Liberty Bowl Analysis: 

At full strength Cincinnati might be favored in this game, but the Bearcats are expected to be without at least six starters including quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has entered the portal.  

The service academies tend to do well in bowl games because their unique offense requires a lot of focus and preparation, and a team dealing with significant opt-outs is less likely to be locked in. 

Without Sorsby, the Bearcats might lean more on their rushing attack but Navy’s physical defensive front poses a challenge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Cincinnati: ranked 39th in yards before contact
• Navy: ranked 17th in yards before contact allowed

Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. Utah

• Predicted Winner: Utah
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Las Vegas Bowl Analysis: 

It was easier to pick Utah in this matchup when it was supposed to be a farewell show for Kyle Whittingham, but the Utes are still significantly more talented than the Huskers. 

The Utes will be without both starting tackles who are likely first-round draft picks, but this Nebraska run defense was a mess this season. 

Expect Utah to run all over the Huskers based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Utah: ranked 2nd in yards before contact
• Nebraska: 121st in yards before contact allowed

Nebraska’s offense is also likely to struggle with Utah’s pass rush, which ranks second in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.

2025 Bowl Game Schedule: