College Bowl Game Predictions, Picks & Analysis for Every Game

The matchups for every 2025 Bowl Game as well as the College Football Playoff field have been announced.

The only thing left to do is dominate your bowl pick 'em pool.

We are here to help with predictions and analysis for every 2025 Bowl Game as well as some strategies to use in your bowl pick 'em pool.

These picks will continue to be updated throughout bowl season, especially as we get news of players opting out.

Since players opting out and transferring can wildly swing expectations for a game, it's advisable to join a pool in which you can change your selections up until the kickoff of each bowl game.

Current Record: 9-4

2025 Bowl Game Picks:

 

2025 Bowl Game Analysis and Predictions, Every Bowl Game:

Boca Raton Bowl: Louisville vs. Toledo

• Predicted Winner: Louisville
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Boca Raton Bowl Analysis: 

Both teams have been hurt by out-outs, but Toledo will likely be without more key players in a matchup it was unlikely to win even at full strength. 

Most notably, Rockets quarterback Tucker Gleason is injured and will not play, setting redshirt-freshman Kalieb Osborne up for his first career start. 

Louisville will be without two starting defensive linemen, but Toledo’s left tackle also opted out, so the edge in pass protection likely remains with the Cardinals based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Toledo: ranked 68th in pressure rate allowed
• Louisville: ranked 38th in pressure rate generated

Louisville will be without leading receiver Chris Bell (injury), but receiver Caullin Lacy and quarterback Miller Moss are expected to play. 

Toledo had a strong pass-rush unit during the regular season, but probably lacks the depth to replace opt-out Malachi Davis, who led the team in pressures and sacks.

New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

• Predicted Winner: Western Kentucky
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

New Orleans Bowl Analysis: 

Western Kentucky throws the ball at a rate 10% above expected, according to Campus2Canton, and should have success in this matchup with its quick passing attack. 

The Hilltoppers use quick dropbacks 40% of the time and should lean heavily on those plays in this game as Southern Miss ranks 107th in yards per attempt allowed against quick dropbacks (7.4), per Sports Info Solutions. 

Western Kentucky is also likely to capitalize on its scoring opportunities based on these red zone touchdown conversion rate stats:

• Western Kentucky: 70% conversion rate, ranked 24th
• Southern Miss: 70% conversion rate allowed, ranked 117th

Southern Miss runs a more balanced offense and has a knack for producing explosive plays. 

The Golden Eagles rank 30th in explosive play rate, while the Hilltoppers defense ranks 106th. 

However, Western Kentucky also excels at generating negative plays, which has allowed it to force opponents into third-and-long situations at the nation’s 14th highest rate. 

Southern Miss only ranks 65th in third-and-long avoidance. 

Be sure to check back on the opt-out status of Southern Miss players shortly before kickoff because head coach Charles Huff is headed to Memphis. 

Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson was promoted to head coach, however, which may increase the likelihood of players sticking around. 

Frisco Bowl: UNLV vs. Ohio

• Predicted Winner: UNLV
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Frisco Bowl Analysis: 

Ohio head coach Brian Smith was recently fired for some wild off-field misconduct allegations, so it’s anyone’s guess what level of motivation the Bobcats have entering this game. 

UNLV has one of the most dangerous offenses in the country and ranks ninth in explosive play rate, while Ohio’s defense ranks 81st by the same metric. 

Expect the Rebels to attack downfield early and often in an effort to exploit the Bobcats’ greatest weakness. 

Outside the red zone, UNLV throws 15 or more yards downfield 29% of the time, the 11th highest rate. 

Anthony Colandrea ranks 29th in completion rate on those throws (48%), while Ohio’s defense ranks 119th (49%), per Sports Info Solutions.

Ohio leans on a run-heavy approach and will likely try to slow this game down by controlling the ball with its ground game. 

UNLV’s run defense has been inconsistent at best, but Ohio’s spread offense plays into the Rebels’ hands. 

Check out UNLV’s run defense by box type:

• Light box: 5.3 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 72nd
• Stacked box: 6.2 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 134th

On average, teams allow 0.9 fewer yards with a stacked box, whereas UNLV’s numbers swing the opposite direction. 

This is noteworthy because Ohio running backs have only faced a stacked box 37% of the time due to its spread formations. 

When Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro drops back to pass, he will likely be swarmed by the Rebels’ pass rush based on these opponent-adjusted numbers:

• Ohio: ranked 118th in pressure rate allowed
• UNLV: ranked 35th in pressure rate generated

So if UNLV can build a lead and force Ohio into a more pass-heavy game plan, the Rebels should be able to pull away.

Hawaii Bowl: California vs. Hawaii

• Predicted Winner: California
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Hawaii Bowl Analysis:

Hawaii runs one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the country but it's a unit that has struggled to produce the explosive plays head coach Timmy Chang is hoping for with his run-and-shoot offense. 

The Rainbow Warriors rank 101st in explosive play rate 一 one of the few matchups in which Cal has had an edge in this area, as its defense ranks 80th by the same metric. 

Hawaii is playing on its home field in this game, but that hasn’t proven to be an advantage historically as the Warriors are just 5-4 in the Hawaii bowl. 

On the other side of the ball Cal has a massive edge in the explosive play department, ranking 36th compared to Hawaii’s defense at 102nd. 

Hawaii will have a chance to slow Cal down with its pass rush, which should hold an edge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• California: ranked 110th in pressure rate allowed
• Hawaii: ranked 25th in pressure rate generated

When Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has time, expect Cal to take some shots downfield as the Golden Bears throw 15 or more yards downfield at the 36th highest rate outside the red zone. 

Sagapolutele is completing 51% of his throws at that depth, ranked 21st, while Hawaii’s defense ranks 66th in completion rate allowed. 

Cal’s offense has been wildly inconsistent due to the ups and downs of Sagapolutele, a true freshman.

Expect Sagapolutele to look more sharp in this contest having had a few weeks to prepare for a mediocre defense. 

GameAbove Sports Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Northwestern

• Predicted Winner: Northwestern
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

GameAbove Sports Bowl Analysis: 

Northwestern slightly favors its rushing attack and should have success against a weak Central Michigan run defense. 

The Wildcats pro-style offense allows defenses to stack the box at a high rate, so let’s take a look at CMU’s numbers with a stacked box via Sports Info Solutions:

• 2.3 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 116th
• 4.8 yards per attempt, ranked 85th

Northwestern doesn’t have a potent passing attack, but it should have some success in this matchup as it can likely protect quarterback Preston Stone based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Northwestern: ranked 9th in pressure rate allowed
• Central Michigan: ranked 67th in pressure rate generated

Central Michigan runs the ball at a rate 14% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton. 

Since Northwestern is favored by 10.5 points, a significant amount of confidence points are likely to be wagered on the Wildcats. 

I’m not going to be as aggressive because Northwestern’s style makes it vulnerable to upsets. 

With both teams playing conservative run-heavy styles, it should be a low-scoring game which increases the odds of an upset. 

Additionally, Northwestern ranks 131st in red zone touchdown rate, while Central Michigan’s defense ranks 31st. 

So the potential exists for Northwestern to control this game, yet still struggle to put the Chippewas away. 

If you haven’t been following along with our picks and are far behind in your pool, this might be a good spot to strategically pick an upset in hopes of a significant point swing in your favor.

Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs. Minnesota

• Predicted Winner: New Mexico
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Rate Bowl Analysis: 

New Mexico runs a balanced offense and has the potential to create some problems for Minnesota with its scheme. 

In the run game, the Lobos favor spread formations which create light boxes at a high rate. 

And while New Mexico does not have a potent rushing attack, the Golden Gophers have struggled against those types of offenses, allowing 5.7 yards per attempt with a light box (ranked 101st), per Sports Info Solutions. 

In the passing game, New Mexico gets the ball out quickly, relying on quick dropbacks 42% of the time, the 34th highest rate. 

Against quick dropbacks, the Gophers are allowing 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked 89th. 

When the Lobos aren’t getting rid of the ball quickly, they’re attacking downfield 一 28% of throws outside the red zone have been at least 15 yards downfield. 

Jack Layne is completing 56% of those throws for New Mexico, while the Gophers are allowing a 51% completion rate, ranked 128th. 

Traditionally, Minnesota leans on its rushing attack but the pass game has become more prevalent this season due to some struggles on the ground. 

It will be hard to find running lanes in this matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Minnesota: ranked 131st in yards before contact
• New Mexico: ranked 19th in yards before contact allowed

Minnesota’s pro style passing attack has been moderately efficient due to a strong offensive line, but it’s hardly a unit that scares anyone. 

The Gophers rank 110th in completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards. 

Since there’s no downfield attack, Minnesota tends to attack underneath 一 53% of attempts travel five or fewer yards downfield, the 27th highest rate. 

However, the Gophers only averaged 4.7 yards per attempt on those throws , ranked 109th. 

P.J. Fleck is 6-0 in bowl games at Minnesota, so his team will likely be focused, but New Mexico will also have plenty of motivation as it is appearing in its first bowl since 2016. 

First Responder Bowl: FIU vs. UTSA

• Predicted Winner: UTSA
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

First Responder Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Military Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina

• Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Military Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State vs. Clemson

• Predicted Winner: Clemson
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Pinstripe Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. Army

• Predicted Winner: Army
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Fenway Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Pop-Tarts Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. BYU

• Predicted Winner: BYU
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Pop-Tarts Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Arizona Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State

• Predicted Winner: Fresno State
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Arizona Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

New Mexico Bowl: North Texas vs. San Diego State

• Predicted Winner: North Texas
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

New Mexico Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Gator Bowl: Virginia vs. Missouri

• Predicted Winner: Missouri
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Gator Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Houston

• Predicted Winner: Houston
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Texas Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State

• Predicted Winner: Georgia Southern
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Birmingham Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Independence Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech

• Predicted Winner: Louisiana Tech
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Independence Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs. Illinois

• Predicted Winner: Tennessee
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Music City Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Alamo Bowl: USC vs. TCU

• Predicted Winner: USC
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Alamo Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt

• Predicted Winner: Vanderbilt
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

ReliaQuest Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs. Duke

• Predicted Winner: Duke
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Sun Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas

• Predicted Winner: Texas
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Citrus Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. Utah

• Predicted Winner: Utah
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Las Vegas Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

CFP Quarterfinals: Miami vs. Ohio State

• Predicted Winner: Ohio State
• Confidence Points: 36-40 points

Miami/Texas A&M vs. Ohio State Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

CFP Quarterfinals: Oregon vs. Texas Tech

• Predicted Winner: Oregon
• Confidence Points: 21-25 points

James Madison/Oregon vs. Texas Tech Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

CFP Quarterfinals: Alabama vs. Indiana

• Predicted Winner: Indiana
• Confidence Points: 31-35 points

Alabama/Oklahoma vs. Indiana Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

CFP Quarterfinals: Ole Miss vs. Georgia

• Predicted Winner: Georgia
• Confidence Points: 36-40 points

Tulane/Ole Miss vs. Georgia Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State

• Predicted Winner: Texas State
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Armed Forces Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Liberty Bowl: Navy vs. Cincinnati

• Predicted Winner: Navy
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Liberty Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Holiday Bowl: Arizona vs. SMU

• Predicted Winner: Arizona
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Holiday Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State

• Predicted Winner: Wake Forest
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Duke’s Mayo Bowl Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

CFP Semifinals: TBD

• Predicted Winner: Coming soon!
• Confidence Points: Coming soon!

CFP Semifinals Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

CFP Semifinals: TBD

• Predicted Winner: Coming soon!
• Confidence Points: Coming soon!

CFP Semifinals Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

National Championship Game: TBD

• Predicted Winner: Coming soon!
• Confidence Points: Coming soon!

National Championship Game Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Completed Bowls:

CFP First Round: Alabama at Oklahoma

• Predicted Winner: Alabama
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Alabama-Oklahoma Analysis:

Click here for a full breakdown of Alabama vs. Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: Miami at Texas A&M

• Predicted Winner: Miami
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Miami-Texas A&M Analysis:

Click here for a full breakdown of Miami vs. Texas A&M in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: Tulane at Ole Miss

• Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Tulane-Ole Miss Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Tulane vs. Ole Miss in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: James Madison at Oregon

• Predicted Winner: Oregon
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

James Madison-Oregon Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of James Madison vs. Oregon in the College Football Playoff!

Celebration Bowl: Prairie View A&M vs. South Carolina State

• Predicted Winner: Prairie View A&M
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Celebration Bowl Analysis: 

Prairie View A&M is participating in its first Celebration Bowl after pulling off an upset of Jacksonville State to win the SWAC for the first time since 2009.

South Carolina State is in this game for the third time in the last five years, having lost last year and won in 2021.

Prairie View is the more balanced team, ranking third in scoring defense and 31st in scoring offense, whereas South Carolina State ranks 28th on offense and 63rd on defense. 

The Panther defense should be taken seriously, especially after holding a dangerous Jackson State offense to a season-low 244 yards. 

LA Bowl: Boise State vs. Washington

• Predicted Winner: Washington
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

LA Bowl Analysis: 

Boise State wants to run the ball with Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, but that won’t be easy against a strong Washington defense. 

Check out the Huskies' opponent-adjusted numbers against the run: 

• Yards before contact allowed: ranked 15th
• Yards after contact allowed: ranked 14th

Boise’s offensive line also might take a hit if left tackle Kage Casey opts out (he’s already declared for the NFL Draft). 

Washington is not expected to have any opt-outs, which should allow the Huskies to have their way with a shaky Broncos defense. 

Washington ranks 11th in the country in explosive play rate, while Boise’s defense ranks 121st. 

Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy vs. Jacksonville State

• Predicted Winner: Jacksonville State
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Salute to Veterans Bowl Analysis: 

Troy might be without starting quarterback Goose Crowder, who was injured in the Sun Belt Championship game, though backup Tucker Kilcrease started seven games when Crowder was injured earlier this year. 

The potential quarterback change probably doesn’t make a significant impact, as neither handles pressure well, which could be a deciding factor in this contest. 

Check out how these teams stack up in the pass protection battle based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:

• Troy: ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
• Jacksonville State: ranked 32nd in pressure rate generated

This is problematic because Kilcrease and Crowder rank 146th and 149th, respectively, out of 153 qualifiers in sack rate versus pressure. 

Troy might also be without starting running back Tae Meadows, who is planning to enter the portal. 

Jacksonville State throws the ball at a rate 12% below expected based on situation data from Campus2Canton, and meets a friendly run defense in Troy. 

The Gamecocks' spread offense creates light boxes for its running backs 62% of the time, which could exploit a weakness in the Trojan defense. 

Troy is used to playing with light boxes due to its 3-3-5 scheme, but has been helpless against the run, allowing 6.0 yards per attempt to running backs when in a light box (ranked 108th). 

Cam Cook, a former four-star recruit who transferred in from TCU, should run all over the Trojan defense.

Cure Bowl: Old Dominion vs. South Florida

• Predicted Winner: Old Dominion
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Cure Bowl Analysis: 

Old Dominion has one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, but will be without starting quarterback Colton Joseph, who has entered the portal, likely in search of a power-conference program to suit up for in 2026. 

Joseph is a capable passer but also led the Monarchs in rushing yards — his 1,107 yards on the ground (excluding sacks) rank third among FBS quarterbacks. 

Redshirt-freshman Quinn Henicle will start in place of Joseph. 

Henicle may keep the offense on track, as we saw his running ability on display in a start against Arkansas State last year when he ran for 220 yards, excluding sacks. 

However, that was a terrible Arkansas State defense (ranked 125th in rushing defense), and the Bulls likely pose more of a challenge. 

Henicle should also have some success with ODU’s quick-strike passing attack, which could exploit a weakness in USF’s defense. 

Old Dominion has relied on quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) at the nation’s highest rate (79%), and USF’s defense only ranks 66th in yards per attempt allowed against those types of plays. 

Although Joseph is a significant loss for ODU, offseason moves have hit USF considerably harder.

They will be without head coach Alex Golesh and a few other offensive coaches (all headed to Auburn) as well as quarterback Byrum Brown (who is serving as an assistant coach instead). 

Unlike ODU, the Bulls don’t have a similar quarterback to plug in. 

Brown is a run-first quarterback, leading USF with 1,121 yards (excluding sacks). 

Sixth-year senior Gaston Moore, a transfer from Tennessee, will make his first career start in Brown’s place. 

Moore has played 220 offensive snaps in his career, carrying the ball just 11 times for 51 yards, so expect USF to lean more on its running backs and the quick passing game. 

USF utilizes quick dropbacks at the nation’s second-highest rate (62%), but ODU ranks 15th in the country in yards per attempt allowed against those plays. 

It’s also worth noting ODU has just one bowl victory in program history (2016 Bahamas Bowl), so there could be stronger motivation on that side of the field. 

68 Ventures Bowl: Louisiana vs. Delaware

• Predicted Winner: Delaware
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

68 Ventures Bowl Analysis: 

Louisiana leans heavily on the run, which could be problematic for a struggling Delaware defense. 

According to Campus2Canton, Louisiana runs the ball at a rate 9.2% above expected based on situational data. 

The Ragin' Cajuns certainly don’t have a dominant run game, but they should be able to handle Delaware based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Louisiana: ranked 76th in yards before contact
• Delaware: ranked 92nd in yards before contact allowed
• Louisiana: ranked 88th in yards after contact
• Delaware: ranked 113th in yards after contact allowed

The Blue Hens might be able to keep pace with their passing attack, however, as Louisiana’s lack of pass rush has made it vulnerable to pass-heavy offenses. 

Delaware throws the ball at a rate 10% above expected, and quarterback Nick Minicucci should have plenty of protection based on these opponent-adjusted stats:

• Delaware: ranked 64th in pressure rate allowed
• Louisiana: ranked 129th in pressure rate generated

Delaware’s ability to protect Minicucci is impressive given the rate at which he takes traditional dropbacks (three or more steps). 

Minicucci’s 65% traditional dropback rate is the 10th highest in the country, which tends to invite more pressure, but that won’t be an issue against Louisiana. 

The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 133rd in pressure rate generated against traditional dropbacks and 89th in yards per attempt allowed. 

Delaware went 4-2 this season when Minicucci was pressured on fewer than 30% of his dropbacks, and Louisiana only generated a pressure rate that high four times. 

Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

• Predicted Winner: Missouri State
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Xbox Bowl Analysis: 

Missouri State runs a pass-heavy offense but struggles to protect quarterback Jacob Clark, which could be an issue in this matchup. 

Check out the pass-protection battle based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Missouri State: ranked 118th in pressure rate allowed
• Arkansas State: ranked 84th in pressure rate generated

When the Bears are able to protect Clark, however, there will be plenty of big plays to be had against this Red Wolves defense. 

Missouri State’s offense ranks 14th in explosive play rate, while Arkansas State’s defense ranks 98th. 

Expect most of those big plays to come in the downfield passing game, as Clark ranks 10th in completion rate at 15 or more yards downfield (53%). 

The Red Wolves defense ranks 91st in completion rate allowed at that depth. 

If Missouri State protects Clark enough to have some success in the downfield passing game, Arkansas State might struggle to keep pace. 

The Red Wolves rank 121st in opponent-adjusted scoring offense and 118th in explosive play rate, so this is not a team built for a shootout. 

Missouri’s State’s weakness on defense is its run defense, but Arkansas State does not appear built to exploit that flaw based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Arkansas State: ranked 92nd in yards before contact
• Missouri State: ranked 89th in yards before contact allowed
• Arkansas State: ranked 121st in yards after contact
• Missouri State: ranked 100th in yards after contact allowed

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan

• Predicted Winner: Kennesaw State
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Myrtle Beach Bowl Analysis: 

Western Michigan runs a slow-paced, run-heavy offense, simply trying to bleed the clock and win low-scoring games with its defense. 

Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, Western Michigan runs the ball at a rate 11% above expected. 

Check out a few more key stats to sum up the Broncos offense:

• Ranked 115th in pace of play
• Ranked 107th in opponent-adjusted scoring offense
• Ranked 127th in explosive play rate

Western Michigan’s rushing attack worked against some of the weaker defenses in the MAC, but it is not a consistent unit and might struggle in this match based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Western Michigan: ranked 126th in yards before contact
• Kennesaw State: ranked 109th in yards before contact allowed
• Western Michigan: ranked 104th in yards after contact
• Kennesaw State: ranked 68th in yards after contact allowed

Kennesaw State runs a spread offense, leaning slightly more heavily on the run game, where it may have an edge against the Bronco defense. 

The spread scheme creates a light box for Owl running backs 68% of the time. 

Western Michigan is allowing 5.7 yards per attempt with a light box, ranked 101st. 

Expect Owls’ quarterback Amari Odom to take some shots downfield in the passing game and potentially swing momentum with some big plays. 

Odom ranks second in the country with a 63% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield.

It's also worth mentioning that this is Kennesaw State's first bowl game, and it's just six hours from campus.

Western Michigan is in a bowl game for the second straight year and the eighth time in the last 12 years, so the Owls may have more motivation in this game as well as a crowd advantage.

Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis vs. NC State

• Predicted Winner: NC State
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Gasparilla Bowl Analysis: 

The biggest question entering this game is: Does Memphis want to be here?

After starting 6-0 and looking like a serious playoff contender, Memphis went 2-4 down the stretch before losing head coach Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas (he will not coach in this game). 

Memphis runs a balanced offense but might lean more heavily on the run game due to these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Memphis: ranked 23rd in yards before contact
• NC State: ranked 49th in yards before contact allowed
• Memphis: ranked 62nd in yards after contact
• NC State: ranked 112 in yards after contact allowed

The key to NC State’s offense is protecting quarterback CJ Bailey, who takes a traditional dropback at the nation’s sixth-highest rate. 

Traditional dropbacks invite extra pressure, but Memphis only ranks 76th in pressure rate against traditional dropbacks (41%) and 113th in yards per attempt allowed (9.0). 

NC State's star running back Hollywood Smothers has opted out and plans on entering the transfer portal, but he missed some action earlier this year and freshman Duke Scott easily filled in.

Scott is expected to take over as the starter next season and there should be minimal dropoff in production, if any.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State vs. Utah State

• Predicted Winner: Utah State
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Analysis: 

Washington State head coach Jimmy Rogers has already left for Iowa State, and at least 13 players have stated their intention to enter the portal. 

Some of those players will remain with the team, but starting running back Kirby Vorhees is among those who have left the program. 

The Cougars favor the passing game and should be able to protect quarterback Zevi Eckhaus against a Utah State pass rush ranked 111th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated. 

Eckhaus isn’t much of a downfield passer, so Washington State typically attacks on underneath routes, which doesn’t look like a great plan of attack based on these numbers on throws five or fewer yards downfield from Sports Info Solutions:

• Washington State: 5.0 yards per attempt, ranked 96th
• Utah State: 4.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 33rd

Utah State runs a relatively balanced offense but should probably try to avoid the passing game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Utah State: ranked 134th in pressure rate allowed
• Washington State: ranked 58th in pressure rate generated

Fortunately for the Aggies, they appear to hold a considerable advantage in the run game. 

Washington State’s run defense has been routinely gashed this year, giving up three or more yards before contact to running backs on 31% of attempts (ranked 112th). 

Quarterback Bryson Barnes also plays a critical role in the run game, averaging 78.0 yards per game, excluding sacks.

2025 Bowl Game Pick ‘Em Strategy:

In either straight-up bowl pick 'em or confidence pools, the goal is fairly simple.

Pick more correct games or score more points than everyone else.

Accomplishing that goal, however, is more involved than simply picking the games, especially in confidence pools.

In regular pick 'em pools, there will be a lot of overlap between entries.

In Splash Sports' $100K CFB Bowl Pick'em, for instance, there will be several teams with well over a 75% pick rate.

While it is not a great idea to deviate from those heavy favorites just for the fun of it, those games can offer a great opportunity to gain leverage on the field if the public is too confident in a certain team.

Often, this overconfidence is a result of the public missing important news, such as opt-outs or coaching changes.

Betting markets adjust quickly to that kind of news and are a great way to determine if the public is too confident in a specific team, since every moneyline comes with an implied probability of victory.

A -120 favorite (54.6% implied probability) selected by 80% of the field offers a great opportunity to go against the public.

Conversely, a -200 favorite (66.7% implied probability) selected by just 55% of the field is a great opportunity to go with the chalk and pick the favorite.

Identifying those situations is important because it differentiates your entry and increases your chances of winning if you get those swing games correct.

How often you need to make those swings depends on the size of your bowl pool.

In a small pool, it does not make sense to pick a ton of upsets. A few underdog picks should be enough to differentiate from a small number of entries.

A bigger pool, however, might require a bit more risk-taking to separate from the larger field.

Confidence pools add another layer to pick 'em strategy because they require entries to rank their selections, with their most confident pick usually worth 47 points and the least confident worth only 1 point.

The importance of those high-confidence games cannot be overstated. The 47-point pick is worth more than picks 1 through 9 combined.

However, those high-confidence picks also offer a great opportunity.

Assigning a higher point value to an undervalued team maximizes the advantage gained if that underdog can pull out the win.

Like with regular pick 'em pools, the size of a confidence pool affects how aggressive you should be with upset selections and their point values.

2025 Bowl Game Schedule: