It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
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Why You Should Bet the UNDER on Curtis Samuel’s Receiving Yards Prop Bet
- Playing outside, where he has been less productive
- Competition for targets
Washington Football Team wide receiver Curtis Samuel enters 2021 with high expectations after a strong year in 2020, in which he posted a career-high 851 receiving yards with the Carolina Panthers. In a more talented offense in Washington, however, he may have a more difficult time eclipsing these prop bets:
- 700.5 receiving yards on BetMGM
- 700.5 receiving yards on DraftKings
- Off the board on FanDuel
In his first year in Washington, Samuel is expected to primarily line up on the outside, opposite Terry McLaurin with veteran Adam Humphries in the slot.
Samuel does have experience in this role (primarily in 2019 in Carolina) but he has never been as reliable out wide as in the slot.
Some of his lack of production on the outside could be attributed to Kyle Allen serving as his primary quarterback in 2019, but even when removing uncatchable targets from his numbers, he has been more explosive from the slot.
Curtis Samuel Career Numbers by Position
| Alignment | % of Total Routes | Yards per Catchable Tgt | Catch Rate on Catchable Tgt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 9.3 | 79.2% |
| Slot | 49% | 9.9 | 84.4% |
The primary reason for Samuel’s struggles out wide has been his inability to develop into a reliable downfield weapon. According to Sports Info Solutions, Samuel has a 59.1% catch rate on catchable targets at 15 or more yards downfield. For some context, McLaurin has a 75% career catch rate on those targets.
In addition to competing with McLaurin, Humphries, and tight end Logan Thomas for targets, Samuel will need to hold off rookie Dyami Brown.
While college-to-pro comparisons are tough to rely on, it’s worth noting Brown caught 73% of his catchable targets 15+ yards downfield at North Carolina.
Brown has been earning rave reviews in training camp and, even though Samuel is likely to maintain his starting role, we should expect to see Brown in the rotation at receiver.
Over the last few seasons, Brown was one of the most dynamic downfield weapons in college football 一 he was fourth in the nation in receptions at 15 or more yards in 2020 一 so it would stand to reason we’ll see him used to stretch the field, likely taking some of those valuable deep targets away from Samuel.
