Florida vs. Missouri Odds, Prediction & Pick: CFB Week 5

Florida vs. Missouri, Current Betting Odds:

Florida -4.5 points

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Florida vs. Missouri Best Bet Prediction:

Florida -4.5 points

The Gators' rushing attack might expose Missouri's defensive front, so let's lay the points and take Florida against the spread.

When Florida Is on Offense

Florida runs a slow-paced, run-heavy offense under first-year coordinator Buster Faulkner, who previously had success with his scheme at Georgia Tech.

Based on situational data from FourthAndShort, the Gators run the ball at a rate 3.5% above expected, the nation's 19th-most run-heavy offense.

So let's take a look at some opponent-adjusted data on the run game matchup via Sports Info Solutions:

Florida: ranked 1st in yards before contact
Missouri: ranked 1st in yards before contact allowed
Florida: ranked 8th in yards after contact
Missouri: ranked 88th in yards after contact allowed

Missouri is contacting opposing running backs before crossing the line of scrimmage at an impressive 51% rate, but none of that matters when your defense can't tackle.

Against the run, Missouri has missed a tackle once every 3.6 carries, the 12th-worst rate in the country.

That trend is extremely problematic with 225-pound Jadan Baugh coming to town, as he ranks 10th among running backs in broken/missed tackle rate, per Sports Info Solutions.

And because Missouri can't tackle, the Tigers have been giving up explosive plays on the ground at a concerning rate.

Opponents have gained 10 or more yards on 11.7% of carries, ranked 75th.

Florida's ability to run the ball may matter more than usual in this matchup because of injuries to receivers Vernell Brown III and Bailey Stockton.

Both receivers were listed as questionable on the initial injury report.

Brown leads the Gators with a 20% target share while splitting time outside and in the slot, while Stockton primarily sees action on underneath routes from the slot.

Florida still has the talented Dallas Wilson in the receiving corps, but his role is primarily as a downfield threat.

So if Brown and Stockton are unable to play or are limited, the performance of Florida's offensive line would be more critical to the team's success in order to give quarterback Aaron Philo time to find Wilson down the field.

So let's take a look at the matchup in the trenches based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:

Florida: ranked 26th in pressure rate allowed
Missouri: ranked 32nd in pressure rate generated

Missouri's pass-rush success has been somewhat surprising after losing standout pass-rusher Damon Wilson II via the transfer portal to Miami.

Sophomore Daeden Hopkins deserves much of the credit for the unit's continued success, generating 6.5 sacks and a 21.1% pressure rate.

Missouri will need its pass rush to be effective because Philo has excelled as a downfield passer so far this season.

Although Florida leans on the run game, when the Gators do throw the ball, they attack downfield.

Outside the red zone, 32% of Florida's pass attempts have been at least 15 yards downfield, and the Gators have completed 52% of those throws.

Missouri does not appear to have the talent in the secondary this season to handle Florida's receivers, especially if the Gators are at full strength, so disrupting the passing attack with the pass rush will be critical.

Last week against Mississippi State, the Tigers allowed Kamario Taylor to complete 70% of his passes from a clean pocket, including 7 of 12 throws at 10 or more yards downfield.

With reason to believe Florida can run the ball on Missouri and questions about Missouri's ability to contain the downfield passing attack, it feels safe to trust Florida's offense to have success in this matchup.

When Missouri Is on Offense

Missouri lost coordinator Kirby Moore this offseason when he took the head coaching job at Washington State, and it seems to have hurt the offense.

Eli Drinkwitz made the questionable decision to bring in journeyman coordinator Chip Lindsey.

Lindsey most recently had a disastrous season as Michigan's coordinator in 2025, preceded by an underwhelming tenure at North Carolina that contributed to Mack Brown‘s firing.

So far this year, Missouri has leaned heavily on the run game, throwing the ball at a rate 1.6% below expected based on situational data from FourthAndShort.

The rushing attack was expected to be a strength of the Tigers' offense, but offseason injuries to left tackle Josh Atkins and star running back Ahmad Hardy have limited Missouri's ability to run the ball effectively.

Let's take a look at some opponent-adjusted stats on the run game matchup, via Sports Info Solutions:

Missouri: ranked 73rd in yards before contact
Florida: ranked 41st in yards before contact allowed
Missouri: ranked 30th in yards after contact
Florida: ranked 58th in yards after contact allowed

There is not an obvious advantage for either side, though it's worth noting Missouri has really struggled to create open running lanes.

Missouri running backs have gained three or more yards before contact on just 19% of their carries, ranked 124th, which has limited the Tigers' ability to be explosive on the ground.

That doesn't mean Missouri can't find success on the ground, but fewer explosive plays increase the likelihood of needing to convert on third down.

And sure enough, Missouri has reached third down on 51% of its sets of downs (ranked 84th), while converting 41% of those attempts (ranked 67th).

Not only is Missouri getting forced into third-down situations, but the Tigers are also consistently playing well behind the sticks.

Lindsey's offense has faced a third-and-long situation 29% of the time, ranked 116th.

The run game's inconsistent performance has added pressure on quarterback Austin Simmons and the passing attack.

Fortunately for Simmons, the offensive line has been more effective in pass protection and probably holds an edge in this matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

Missouri: ranked 23rd in pressure rate allowed
Florida: ranked 60th in pressure rate generated

An effective offensive line is critical to Missouri's success because of how often the Tigers want to attack downfield.

Outside the red zone, 32% of Missouri's pass attempts have been at least 15 yards downfield (FBS average: 23%).

However, Missouri is completing just 40% of those downfield attempts, ranked 84th.

It's hard to look at these numbers and point to an area where Missouri has a clear offensive advantage, which is concerning given the expected success of Florida's rushing attack on the other side.