The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Green Bay Packers could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Green Bay Packers 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-The Packers had a quality offense last year, ranking 10th in yards per play (5.6), seventh in success rate (44.4%), fourth in EPA per play, and eighth in points per drive (2.36), but ranked just 16th in points per game (23.0). Their per-game scoring could creep closer to their other offensive metrics, especially since they posted their quality marks with Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft playing together for only two games. Watson made his season debut in Week 8, and Kraft suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 9. Among Green Bay’s players with at least 20 targets last year, Watson paced the club in yards per route run (2.51), and Kraft was second (2.33).
-Green Bay was 23rd in field goal percentage (82.4%) and 27th in extra-point success rate (92.9%) last year. Brandon McManus and Lucas Havrisik had bad kicking campaigns. The Packers have attempted to address their kicking problems by drafting Trey Smack in the sixth round of the NFL Draft. He has plenty of leg, converting 10 of 13 field goal attempts of 50-plus yards in his collegiate career.
-Jordan Love was already second in EPA per play among qualified quarterbacks last year, and that was without one of his two best pass catchers at his disposal in all but two games. Jayden Reed also missed 10 games after leading the Packers in receiving yards and ranking second among pass catchers on the team in yards per route run (2.20) in 2024.
Reasons for the Under
-The Packers ran pure on third downs, which could be difficult to replicate in 2026. They ranked second in third-down conversion rate at 48.8%, much better than the NFL’s average of 39.5%.
-Green Bay was 29th in pressure rate allowed in 2025. Left tackle Rasheed Walker signed with the Panthers in free agency after leading the offensive line in snaps, and the plan to replace him is kicking guard Jordan Morgan out to left tackle, where he played in college. Elgton Jenkins also moved on and signed with the Browns after opening the year as Green Bay’s starting center before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 10. Green Bay’s most meaningful offseason addition along the offensive line was spending a fifth-round pick on Jager Burton.
-The ball bounced in Green Bay’s favor last year. They recovered 13 of their 19 fumbles, while their opponents recovered only 5 of their 12 fumbles. In all, the Packers were fifth in fumble luck (4.3 net over expectation).
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
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- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
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- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams
