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The Detroit Lions shocked the world last year after turning their first playoff win since 1992 into a historic run that ended in a heartbreaking Conference Championship loss to the 49ers.

Despite their recent success, the Lions still have quite a hill to climb before seasons like this become anything more than the exception to the rule.

The team has a handful of glaring flaws to overcome prior to the 2024 season, specifically on the defensive side of the ball.

In 2023, the Lions pass defense ranked #30 vs. the pass. They ranked #31 in YPA.

74% of all yards gained on the Lions were passing yards, #1 highest rate in the NFL.

One of their biggest issues was when they blitzed. Blitzes were TERRIBLE.

Take a look at another incredible stat. Let’s look at the Lions pass defense split by whether they used a standard four man pass rush or sent extra pass rushers:

Four man rush:

  • #9 in EPA/att (-0.05)
  • #21 in YPA (7.2)
  • #7 in completion rate (63%)
  • #1 in YAC/completion (4.2)
  • #7 in third down conversion rate allowed (31%)
  • #5 in pressure rate (38%)

5+ man rush (blitz):

  • #32 in EPA/att (+0.35)
  • #32 in YPA (8.9)
  • #17 in completion rate (61%)
  • #30 in YAC/completion (7.0)
  • #24 in third down conversion rate allowed (44%)
  • #2 in pressure rate (53%)

These splits are mindblowing!

If the Lions simply never blitzed last year, they would have been a top-10 pass defense.

Yet they blitzed so often and were so abhorrent at it that they ended up being one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses.

And the wild part is it’s not like they were a bad pressure team without blitzing and NEEDED to blitz to generate pressure. They ranked #5 in pressure rate when not blitzing!

They overhauled their secondary, trading for Bucs starting CB Carlton Davis and acquiring CB Amik Robertson in free agency.

They then spent their first and second-round draft picks on CBs: Terrion Arnold out of Alabama and Ennis Rakestraw out of Missouri.

But Aaron Glenn and Dan Campbell must take a long, hard look at their blitzing philosophy because it is likely worth the Lions turning that nob way down in 2024.

If the coaching staff can make these adjustments, we could very well be witnessing the beginning of a new era in Detroit.

This is arguably the most talented roster we’ve seen in the Motor City since Barry Sanders was breaking records back in the 90s, and it will all come down to what Campbell and company can make of it.

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Lions Over/Under Wins, 2024:

The Lions are predicted to win 10.5 games in 2024, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.

Why You Should Bet the Over: Lions Win Total in 2024

#1 Reason to Bet the Over:

The Lions were incredibly efficient on offense last season, especially in the first half.

On early downs in the first half, they ranked first in yards per attempt as well as top five yards per play, EPA per play, and yards per carry.

They totaled 250 first half points and led at the half in 13 games, finishing 11-2 in those contests.

#2 Reason to Bet Over:

The Lions should face an easier schedule of defenses in 2024.

After facing the 17th-toughest schedule of defenses last season, Detroit is projected to face the 27th-toughest schedule of defenses this year.

» Bet the Lions Win Total Over 

Why You Should Bet the Under: Lions Win Total in 2024

#1 Reason to Bet the Under:

Despite a strong run defense, the Lions defense struggled overall in 2023.

They ranked 27th in overall defensive efficiency and 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed.

Teams saw this issue and passed at the sixth-highest rate against Detroit.

Opponents scored 0.77 points per minute of possession, which ranked 28th.

The Lions made additions to the secondary this offseason, but it remains a question mark.

#2 Reason to Bet the Under:

Although Detroit flexed an impressive first half offense, their third quarter numbers fell short.

They ranked 31st in third quarter EPA per play, finishing ahead of only the Giants.

The offense was able to turn it on late last season, ranking first in EPA per play in the fourth quarter, but a better showing in the third quarter would help the Lions control games.

» Bet the Lions Win Total Under 

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